title: Pretreatment probability model for predicting outcome after intraarterial chemoradiation for advanced head and neck carcinoma.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Concurrent chemoradiation is being used increasingly to treat patients with advanced-stage head and neck carcinoma. In the current study, a clinical nomogram was developed to predict local control and overall survival rates for individual patients who will undergo chemoradiation.
  
  
  METHODS
  Ninety-two consecutive patients with UICC TNM Stage III/IV squamous cell carcinoma of the oral cavity, oropharynx, hypopharynx, and supraglottic larynx were treated with selective-targeted chemoradiation (acronym: RADPLAT). All living patients had a minimum follow-up of 2 years. In addition to general factors, the following parameters were analyzed in a multivariable analysis: primary tumor volume, lymph node tumor volume, total tumor volume, lowest involved neck level, comorbidity, pretreatment hemoglobin level, pretreatment weight loss, and unilateral/bilateral intraarterial infusion. Relevant factors for local control and survival were analyzed using the Cox proportional hazards model.
  
  
  RESULTS
  At 5 years, the local control and overall survival rates for the whole group were 60% and 38%, respectively. Primary tumor volume (hazard ratio [HR], 1.03; P = 0.01) and unilateral infusion (HR, 5.05; P = 0.004) were found to influence local control significantly. Using tumor volume as a continuous variable, an adjusted risk ratio of 1.026 was found, indicating that each 1-cm(3) increase in volume was associated with a 2.6% decrease in probability of local control. Primary tumor volume (HR, 1.01; P = 0.003), comorbidity (American Society of Anesthesiologists [ASA] physical status 1 vs. > 1; HR, 2.47; P = 0.01), lowest involved neck level (HR, 3.45; P = 0.007), and pretreatment weight loss > 10% (HR, 2.04; P = 0.02) were found to be significant predictors of worse overall survival. Variables from the multivariable analysis were used to develop a nomogram capable of predicting local control and overall survival.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Tumor volume was found to play a significant role in predicting local control and overall survival in patients with advanced-stage head and neck carcinoma who were treated with targeted chemoradiation. The nomograms may be useful for pretreatment selection of patients with advanced-stage head and neck carcinoma.
authors.affiliation: Department of Head and Neck Oncology and Surgery, The Netherlands Cancer Institute-Antoni Van Leeuwenhoek Hospital, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Guido B
authors.initials: GB
authors.lastname: van den Broek
authors.forename: Coen R N
authors.initials: CR
authors.lastname: Rasch
authors.forename: Frank A
authors.initials: FA
authors.lastname: Pameijer
authors.forename: Ellen
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Peter
authors.forename: Michiel W M
authors.initials: MW
authors.lastname: van den Brekel
authors.forename: I Bing
authors.initials: IB
authors.lastname: Tan
authors.forename: Jan H
authors.initials: JH
authors.lastname: Schornagel
authors.forename: Josien A
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: de Bois
authors.forename: Lambert J
authors.initials: LJ
authors.lastname: Zijp
authors.forename: Alfons J M
authors.initials: AJ
authors.lastname: Balm
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000971:Antineoplastic Combined Chemotherapy Protocols / Q000627:therapeutic use; D002294:Carcinoma, Squamous Cell / Q000188:drug therapy* / Q000473:pathology / Q000532:radiotherapy*; D003131:Combined Modality Therapy; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006258:Head and Neck Neoplasms / Q000188:drug therapy* / Q000473:pathology / Q000532:radiotherapy*; D006801:Humans; D007261:Infusions, Intra-Arterial; D008198:Lymph Nodes / Q000473:pathology; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D008954:Models, Biological; D009364:Neoplasm Recurrence, Local / Q000188:drug therapy / Q000473:pathology / Q000532:radiotherapy; D009367:Neoplasm Staging; D011336:Probability; D012307:Risk Factors; D015996:Survival Rate; D016896:Treatment Outcome