Logical reasoning and probabilities: a comprehensive test of Oaksford And Chater (2001).
We report two experiments testing a central prediction of the probabilistic account of reasoning provided by Oaksford and Chater (2001): Acceptance of standard conditional inferences, card choices in the Wason selection task, and quantifiers chosen for conclusions from syllogisms should vary as a function of the frequency of the concepts involved. Frequency was manipulated by a probability-learning phase preceding the reasoning tasks to simulate natural sampling. The effects predicted by Oaksford and Chater (2001) were not obtained with any of the three paradigms.
Oberauer
Klaus
K
Department of Psychology, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany. ko@rz.uni-potsdam.de
Weidenfeld
Andrea
A
Hörnig
Robin
R
D000293:Adolescent; D004521:Educational Measurement; D006801:Humans; D008128:Logic; D011336:Probability; D011340:Problem Solving