title: Predicting sudden death in patients with mild to moderate chronic heart failure.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To explore the relation between non-invasive measures of cardiac function and sudden cardiac death, as well as the development and utility of an index integrating these variables to identify patients at increased risk of this mode of death.
  
  
  METHODS
  UK-HEART (United Kingdom-heart failure evaluation and assessment of risk trial) was a prospective study conducted between December 1993 and April 2000. The study was specifically designed to identify non-invasive markers of death and mode of death among patients with chronic heart failure.
  
  
  METHODS
  8 UK general hospitals.
  
  
  METHODS
  Death and mode of death.
  
  
  RESULTS
  553 patients aged a mean (SD) of 63 (10) years, in New York Heart Association functional class 2.3 (0.02), recruited prospectively. After 2365 patient-years' follow up, 201 patients had died (67 suddenly). Predictors of sudden death were greater cardiothoracic ratio, QRS dispersion, QT dispersion corrected for rate (QTc) across leads V1-V6 on the 12 lead ECG, and the presence of non-sustained ventricular tachycardia. The hazard ratio and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of sudden death for a 10% increase in cardiothoracic ratio was 1.43 (95% CI 1.20 to 1.71), for a 10% increase in QRS dispersion 1.11 (95% CI 1.04 to 1.19), for the presence of non-sustained ventricular tachycardia 2.03 (95% CI 1.27 to 3.25), and for a 10% increase in QTc dispersion across leads V1-V6 1.03 (95% CI 1.00 to 1.07) (all p < 0.04). An index derived from these four factors performed well in identifying patients specifically at increased risk of sudden death.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Results show that an index derived from three widely available non-invasive investigations has the potential to identify ambulant patients with chronic heart failure at increased risk of sudden death. This predictive tool could be used to target more sophisticated investigations or interventions aimed at preventing sudden death.
authors.affiliation: Department of Cardiology, King's College, Bessemer Road, London SE5 9PJ, UK. mark.kearney@kcl.ac.uk
authors.forename: M T
authors.initials: MT
authors.lastname: Kearney
authors.forename: K A A
authors.initials: KA
authors.lastname: Fox
authors.forename: A J
authors.initials: AJ
authors.lastname: Lee
authors.forename: W P
authors.initials: WP
authors.lastname: Brooksby
authors.forename: A M
authors.initials: AM
authors.lastname: Shah
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Flapan
authors.forename: R J
authors.initials: RJ
authors.lastname: Prescott
authors.forename: R
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Andrews
authors.forename: P D
authors.initials: PD
authors.lastname: Batin
authors.forename: D L
authors.initials: DL
authors.lastname: Eckberg
authors.forename: N
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Gall
authors.forename: A G
authors.initials: AG
authors.lastname: Zaman
authors.forename: H S
authors.initials: HS
authors.lastname: Lindsay
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Nolan
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D006332:Cardiomegaly / Q000150:complications / Q000503:physiopathology; D002908:Chronic Disease; D003645:Death, Sudden / Q000209:etiology*; D004562:Electrocardiography; D004812:Epidemiologic Methods; D005260:Female; D006333:Heart Failure / Q000150:complications* / Q000503:physiopathology; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D017180:Tachycardia, Ventricular / Q000150:complications / Q000503:physiopathology