Analysis of the time series for some causes of death.
The mortality data may be analysed by time series methods such as autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modelling. This method is demonstrated by two examples: analysis of the mortality data of cerebrovascular diseases and analysis of the mortality data of cancer of cervix. Mathematical expressions are given for the results of analysis. The relationships between time series of mortality rates were studied with ARIMA models. Calculations of confidence intervals for autoregressive parameters by tree methods: standard normal distribution as estimation and estimation of the White's theory and the continuous time case estimation. Analysing the confidence intervals of the first order autoregressive parameters we may conclude that the confidence intervals were much smaller than other estimations by applying the continuous time estimation model.
Kis
Maria
M
Debrecen University, Boszormenyi ut 138, H-4032 Debrecen, Hungary.
D002423:Cause of Death; D016001:Confidence Intervals; D006801:Humans; D006814:Hungary / Q000453:epidemiology; D015233:Models, Statistical