Lung cancer mortality predictions for Ireland 2001-2015 and current trends in North Western Europe.
PURPOSE AND METHODOLOGY: Poisson regression models of Irish lung cancer mortality data for the years 1954-2000 were used to predict European age standardized mortality rates (EASMRs) and numbers of deaths for the period 2001-2015. Predictions for the whole population and for the age group 0-64 years were the main focus of this analysis. The models employed in this analysis were written for the STATA 6.0 STATISTICAL PACKAGE FOR WINDOWS. Linear models were applied, in general, to upward trends and log-linear models to downward trends.


RESULTS
For males of all ages, EASMRs are expected to fall significantly from 59.7 per 100,000 person years (100,000 PY(-1)) in 2000 to 47.2 in the period 2011-2015. Female EASMRs are expected to fall from 28.3 100,000 PY(-1) in 2000 to 27.8 in 2011-2015. The EASMR for males under 65 years of age is predicted to continue its decline from 20.6 100,000 PY(-1) in 2000 to 11.7 in 2011-2015. The rate for females in this same age group is predicted to decline from 10.7 100,000 PY(-1) in 2000 to 7.0 in 2001-2015. Recent lung cancer trends In Ireland were also compared to other countries in North Western Europe.
O'Lorcain
Piaras
P
National Cancer Registry, Boreenmanna Road, Elm Court, Cork, Ireland. piaras.olorcain@erha.ie
Comber
Harry
H
D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D005060:Europe / Q000453:epidemiology; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D007494:Ireland / Q000453:epidemiology; D008175:Lung Neoplasms / Q000401:mortality*; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D009026:Mortality / Q000639:trends*; D012044:Regression Analysis; D012737:Sex Factors