title: Metabolic syndrome as a predictor of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in type 2 diabetes: the Casale Monferrato Study.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  The aim of this study was to assess in an 11-year survival follow-up of a population-based cohort of type 2 diabetes the predictive role of World Health Organization-defined metabolic syndrome, independent of conventional cardiovascular risk factors.
  
  
  METHODS
  During the follow-up (1991-2001), 1,565 patients were regularly examined with centralized measurements of HbA(1c). The independent role of the metabolic syndrome as a predictor of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality was assessed with multivariate Cox proportional hazards modeling.
  
  
  RESULTS
  At baseline, the prevalence of the metabolic syndrome was 75.6% (95% CI 73.6-77.9). Results are based on 685 deaths (520 with the metabolic syndrome and 165 without it) in 10,890.2 person-years of observations. With respect to subjects without the metabolic syndrome, those with the metabolic syndrome had a similar hazard ratio (HR) of cardiovascular mortality after adjustment for age, sex, smoking, total cholesterol level, and coronary heart disease. In contrast, relative to subjects with diabetes only, the HR of subjects with only one component of the syndrome was 2.92 (1.16-7.33), independent of other risk factors.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  We found that 1) the prevalence of the metabolic syndrome in a population-based cohort of type 2 diabetes is high (75.6%); 2) the metabolic syndrome is not a predictor of 11-year all-cause and cardiovascular mortality; and 3) more than twofold higher cardiovascular risk, independent of conventional risk factors, is evident in diabetic subjects with only one component of the syndrome compared with those with diabetes only. Categorizing type 2 diabetic subjects as having or not having the metabolic syndrome does not provide further prediction compared with the knowledge of its single components.
authors.affiliation: Department of Internal Medicine, University of Turin, corso Dogliotti 14, I-10126 Turin, Italy. graziella.bruno@katamail.com
authors.forename: Graziella
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Bruno
authors.forename: Franco
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Merletti
authors.forename: Annibale
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Biggeri
authors.forename: Giuseppe
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Bargero
authors.forename: Stefania
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Ferrero
authors.forename: Cristina
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Runzo
authors.forename: Stefano
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Prina Cerai
authors.forename: Gianfranco
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Pagano
authors.forename: Paolo
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Cavallo-Perin
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D002318:Cardiovascular Diseases / Q000401:mortality*; D015331:Cohort Studies; D003924:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / Q000150:complications*; D003925:Diabetic Angiopathies / Q000401:mortality*; D006801:Humans; D024821:Metabolic Syndrome / Q000150:complications* / Q000453:epidemiology; D008875:Middle Aged; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D015995:Prevalence; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D018570:Risk Assessment