Effects of macroeconomic trends on social security spending due to sickness and disability.
OBJECTIVE
We analyzed the relationship between macroeconomic conditions, measured as unemployment rate and social security spending, from 4 social security schemes and total spending due to sickness and disability.


METHODS
We obtained aggregated panel data from 13 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development member countries for 1980-1996. We used regression analysis and fixed effect models to examine spending on sickness benefits, disability pensions, occupational-injury benefits, survivor's pensions, and total spending.


RESULTS
A decline in unemployment increased sickness benefits spending and reduced disability pension spending. These effects reversed direction after 4 years of unemployment. Inclusion of mortality rate as an additional variable in the analysis did not affect the findings.


CONCLUSIONS
Macroeconomic conditions influence some reimbursements from social security schemes but not total spending.
Khan
Jahangir
J
Department of Public Health Sciences, Division of Social Medicine, Karolinska Institutet, Norrbacka, 2nd floor, 171 76 Stockholm, Sweden. jahangir.khan@phs.ki.se
Gerdtham
Ulf-G
UG
Jansson
Bjarne
B
D000062:Accidents, Occupational / Q000191:economics; D002170:Canada; D006233:Persons with Disabilities; D004467:Economics / Q000639:trends*; D005060:Europe; D006801:Humans; D010415:Pensions; D012044:Regression Analysis; D012943:Social Security / Q000191:economics*; D014478:Unemployment / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D014481:United States