title: Effects of macroeconomic trends on social security spending due to sickness and disability.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  We analyzed the relationship between macroeconomic conditions, measured as unemployment rate and social security spending, from 4 social security schemes and total spending due to sickness and disability.
  
  
  METHODS
  We obtained aggregated panel data from 13 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development member countries for 1980-1996. We used regression analysis and fixed effect models to examine spending on sickness benefits, disability pensions, occupational-injury benefits, survivor's pensions, and total spending.
  
  
  RESULTS
  A decline in unemployment increased sickness benefits spending and reduced disability pension spending. These effects reversed direction after 4 years of unemployment. Inclusion of mortality rate as an additional variable in the analysis did not affect the findings.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Macroeconomic conditions influence some reimbursements from social security schemes but not total spending.
authors.affiliation: Department of Public Health Sciences, Division of Social Medicine, Karolinska Institutet, Norrbacka, 2nd floor, 171 76 Stockholm, Sweden. jahangir.khan@phs.ki.se
authors.forename: Jahangir
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Khan
authors.forename: Ulf-G
authors.initials: UG
authors.lastname: Gerdtham
authors.forename: Bjarne
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Jansson
mesh_terms: D000062:Accidents, Occupational / Q000191:economics; D002170:Canada; D006233:Persons with Disabilities; D004467:Economics / Q000639:trends*; D005060:Europe; D006801:Humans; D010415:Pensions; D012044:Regression Analysis; D012943:Social Security / Q000191:economics*; D014478:Unemployment / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D014481:United States