title: Predicting recurrence and metastasis of Dukes' A primary colorectal cancer with or without proper muscle invasion.
abstract: This study compared the prediction of recurrence based on detection of occult neoplastic cells (ONCs) in lymph nodes or using 3 criteria to identify high-risk patients among 72 patients who had Dukes' A colorectal cancer with or without proper muscle invasion. Predicting recurrence based on the detection of ONCs had a sensitivity of 40.0% (2/5) and a false-negative rate of 60.0% (3/5), while there was a specificity of 97.0% (65/67) and false-positive rate of 3.0% (2/67), resulting in an accuracy of 68.5%, PPV of 50.0% (2/4), and NPV of 95.6% (65/68). Predicting recurrence based on the presence of at least 2 of the 3 high-risk criteria showed a sensitivity of 60.0% (3/5) and a false-negative rate of 40.0% (2/5), while it had a specificity of 74.6% (50/67) and a false-positive rate of 25.4% (17/67), resulting in an accuracy of 67.3%, PPV of 15.0% (3/20), and NPV of 96.2% (50/52). These results suggest that a prediction based on ONCs was similar to use of the high-risk criteria, with both methods having a high specificity for recurrence/metastasis of Dukes' A colorectal cancer.
authors.affiliation: Department of Surgery, Tokai University Oiso Hospital, Oiso, Kanagawa 259-0198, Japan. onc-res@oiso.u-tokai.ac.jp
authors.forename: Masaya
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Mukai
authors.forename: Shinkichi
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Sato
authors.forename: Hiromi
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Ninomiya
authors.forename: Tomomi
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Kimura
authors.forename: Nobukazu
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Komatsu
authors.forename: Takayuki
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Tajima
authors.forename: Hisao
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Nakasaki
authors.forename: Hiroyasu
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Makuuchi
mesh_terms: D015179:Colorectal Neoplasms / Q000473:pathology* / Q000556:secondary*; D005189:False Positive Reactions; D006801:Humans; D008207:Lymphatic Metastasis / Q000473:pathology*; D019042:Muscle Neoplasms / Q000556:secondary*; D009364:Neoplasm Recurrence, Local / Q000473:pathology*; D009367:Neoplasm Staging; D012307:Risk Factors; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity