[Employment trends--the impact of chronic disease in childhood and low educational level].
BACKGROUND
Our aim was to analyse long-term employment trends among disadvantaged groups on the assumption that they may be more exposed to unemployment during recessions or be at increasingly higher risk of unemployment because of stricter requirements in the workplace.


METHODS
We established a cohort through links between data on individuals in national registers for all 321,975 men born 1967 through 1976. Disadvantaged groups under study were those receiving supplementary benefits in childhood because of chronic disease, and those with few educational attainments. Using Poisson regression we estimated associations with unemployment or disability over the course of the 1991-2001 period.


RESULTS
Disadvantaged groups had higher risk of unemployment or disability. Associations between chronic disease in childhood and subsequent unemployment followed the business cycle; they were highest during the 1993 recession and lowest during the boom years around 1999. Over the long term, the gap in unemployment widened between those with low educational attainment and the better-educated. We found similar but less clear trends for disability.


CONCLUSIONS
The observed negative effect of chronic childhood disease on employment status paralleled the business cycle: it was weakest in boom years and strongest in recession years. Low educational attainment was associated with a gradual decline in the level of employment.
Kristensen
Petter
P
Statens arbeidsmiljøinstitutt, Postboks 8149 Dep, 0033 Oslo. petter.kristensen@stami.no
Bjerkedal
Tor
T
D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D002648:Child; D002908:Chronic Disease; D015331:Cohort Studies; D004522:Educational Status; D004651:Employment / Q000523:psychology / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000639:trends*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D009664:Norway; D012959:Socioeconomic Factors; D014478:Unemployment / Q000523:psychology / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000639:trends*