The evaluation of evidence in the forensic investigation of fire incidents (Part I): an approach using Bayesian networks.
The forensic investigation of the origin and cause of a fire incident is a particularly demanding area of expertise. As the available evidence is often incomplete or vague, uncertainty is a key element. The present study is an attempt to approach this through the use of Bayesian networks, which have been found useful in assisting human reasoning in a variety of disciplines in which uncertainty plays a central role. The present paper describes the construction of a Bayesian network (BN) and its use for drawing inferences about propositions of interest, based upon a single, possibly non replicable item of evidence: detected residual quantities of a flammable liquid in fire debris.
Biedermann
A
A
Ecole des Sciences Criminelles, Institut de Police Scientifique, The University of Lausanne, BCH, 1015 Lausanne, Switzerland. alex.biedermann@esc.unil.ch
Taroni
F
F
Delemont
O
O
Semadeni
C
C
Davison
A C
AC