title: [How to predict the date of the start of the pollination of a plant from the meteorological data: the example of ragweed at Lyon].
abstract: The pollen of Ambrosia, highly allergenic, can be found in high quantities in the French regions of Burgundy, Auvergne and mostly a great part of the Rhône-Alpes region. The aim of this study was to establish some forecast models of the Starting Date of the Pollen season (SDP) of Ambrosia, in order to provide early information to allergists and allergic people. The pollen data came from the Hirst trap set up in Lyon since 1987 by the RNSA, and the meteorological data for the same period were provided by Météo-France. Two models were used, a sum of daily average temperatures and a multiple regression on all the 10-day period meteorological data. The results were quite accurate, except for 2003 with the temperature sums, probably because of very special meteorological conditions. So the models will have to be updated in this way.
authors.affiliation: Laboratoire Climat & Santé, Centre Universitaire d'Epidémiologie de Population, Faculté de Médecine, BP 87900 - 21079 Dijon, France.
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Laaidi
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Thibaudon
authors.forename: J P
authors.initials: JP
authors.lastname: Besancenot
mesh_terms: D000388:Air / Q000032:analysis; D031164:Ambrosia / Q000254:growth & development / Q000502:physiology; D004784:Environmental Monitoring / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D005602:France; D008685:Meteorological Concepts; D018521:Plant Physiological Phenomena; D011058:Pollen; D012044:Regression Analysis; D013696:Temperature