title: Strange bayes indeed: uniform topological priors imply non-uniform clade priors.
abstract: While Bayesian analysis has become common in phylogenetics, the effects of topological prior probabilities on tree inference have not been investigated. In Bayesian analyses, the prior probability of topologies is almost always considered equal for all possible trees, and clade support is calculated from the majority rule consensus of the approximated posterior distribution of topologies. These uniform priors on tree topologies imply non-uniform prior probabilities of clades, which are dependent on the number of taxa in a clade as well as the number of taxa in the analysis. As such, uniform topological priors do not model ignorance with respect to clades. Here, we demonstrate that Bayesian clade support, bootstrap support, and jackknife support from 17 empirical studies are significantly and positively correlated with non-uniform clade priors resulting from uniform topological priors. Further, we demonstrate that this effect disappears for bootstrap and jackknife when data sets are free from character conflict, but remains pronounced for Bayesian clade supports, regardless of tree shape. Finally, we propose the use of a Bayes factor to account for the fact that uniform topological priors do not model ignorance with respect to clade probability.
authors.affiliation: Division of Invertebrate Zoology, American Museum of Natural History, 79th Street at Central Park West, New York, NY 10024, USA.
authors.forename: Kurt M
authors.initials: KM
authors.lastname: Pickett
authors.forename: Christopher P
authors.initials: CP
authors.lastname: Randle
mesh_terms: D001499:Bayes Theorem; D005828:Genetics, Population / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D010802:Phylogeny