title: Spatial-temporal analysis of Ross River virus disease patterns in Queensland, Australia.
abstract: Ross River virus is the most common vector-borne disease in Australia, with the majority of notifications being in Queensland. This study describes a retrospective spatial analysis of Queensland Ross River virus disease notifications spanning a 10-year period. Notifications were mapped to the local government area (LGA) of the residence of the patient. Ross River virus disease outbreaks within each LGA were detected by applying a Poisson model. Estimates of the seasonal incidence rates indicated wide variation between seasons and LGAs. Positive spatial autocorrelation between LGAs experiencing outbreaks indicated that LGAs within the same region often experience outbreaks at the same time. A hierarchical cluster analysis of the outbreak data was used to group LGAs with similar temporal outbreak patterns. This analysis highlights the variability in Ross River virus disease notification rates across Queensland, and provides a robust method for identifying disease outbreaks.
authors.affiliation: Australian Centre for International and Tropical Health and Nutrition, Queensland Institute of Medical Research, Herston, Queensland 4029, Australia. michellG@qimr.edu.au
authors.forename: Michelle L
authors.initials: ML
authors.lastname: Gatton
authors.forename: Louise A
authors.initials: LA
authors.lastname: Kelly-Hope
authors.forename: Brian H
authors.initials: BH
authors.lastname: Kay
authors.forename: Peter A
authors.initials: PA
authors.lastname: Ryan
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D018354:Alphavirus Infections / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000821:virology*; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D003710:Demography; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011793:Queensland / Q000453:epidemiology; D012398:Ross River virus / Q000502:physiology*; D012621:Seasons