Dynamical resonance can account for seasonality of influenza epidemics.
Influenza incidence exhibits strong seasonal fluctuations in temperate regions throughout the world, concentrating the mortality and morbidity burden of the disease into a few months each year. The cause of influenza's seasonality has remained elusive. Here we show that the large oscillations in incidence may be caused by undetectably small seasonal changes in the influenza transmission rate that are amplified by dynamical resonance.
Dushoff
Jonathan
J
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08540, USA. dushoff@eno.princeton.edu
Plotkin
Joshua B
JB
Levin
Simon A
SA
Earn
David J D
DJ
D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D006801:Humans; D007251:Influenza, Human / Q000453:epidemiology*; D012621:Seasons