Applying an artificial neural network to warfarin maintenance dose prediction.
BACKGROUND
Oral anticoagulation with warfarin can lead to life-threatening events as a result of either over-anticoagulation or undertreatment. One of the main contributors to an undesirable warfarin effect is the need to adjust its daily dose for a specific patient. The dose is adjusted empirically based on the experience of the clinician, a method that is often imprecise. There is currently no other well-accepted method for predicting the maintenance dose of warfarin.


OBJECTIVE
To describe the application of an artificial neural network to the problem of warfarin maintenance dose prediction.


METHODS
We designed a neural network that predicts the maintenance dose of warfarin. Data on 148 patients attending a large anticoagulant clinic were collected by file review. Using correlational analysis of the patients' data we selected the best input variables. The network was trained by using the back-propagation algorithm on a subset of our data and the results were validated against the rest of the data. We used a multivariate linear regression to create a comparable model.


RESULTS
The neural network generated reasonable predictions of the maintenance dose (r = 0.823). The results of the linear regression model were similar (r = 0.800).


CONCLUSIONS
Neural networks can be applied successfully for warfarin maintenance dose prediction. The results are promising, but further investigation is needed.
Solomon
Idit
I
Department of Ophthalmology, Rabin Medical Center, Petah Tiqva, Israel.
Maharshak
Nitsan
N
Chechik
Gal
G
Leibovici
Leonard
L
Lubetsky
Aharon
A
Halkin
Hillel
H
Ezra
David
D
Ash
Nachman
N
D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D000465:Algorithms; D000925:Anticoagulants / Q000008:administration & dosage*; D004305:Dose-Response Relationship, Drug; D004360:Drug Therapy, Computer-Assisted / Q000379:methods*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D016014:Linear Models; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D016571:Neural Networks, Computer; D014859:Warfarin / Q000008:administration & dosage*
D000925:Anticoagulants; D014859:Warfarin