title: [Probability of stroke in Portugal in the next ten years].
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To analyze the probability of stroke in Portuguese National Health Service patients in the next ten years.
  
  
  METHODS
  Application of the Framingham study protocol to stroke.
  
  
  RESULTS
  We studied 20,005 patients, aged between 55 and 84 years. The probability of stroke increases with age. Comparative analysis between the number expected from the Framingham study and the Portuguese data shows the following results by age group: in men: 55-59 years: 9.6% (95% CI: 9.2-10.0); 60-64 years: 14.0% (95% CI: 13.5-14.6); 65-69 years: 19.5% (95% CI: 18.7-20.2); 70-74 years: 25.8% (95% CI: 25.0-26.7): 75-79 years: 31.2% (95% CI: 29.9-32.6); 80-84 years: 30.5% (95% CI: 28.9-32.2). In women: 55-59 years: 2.8% (95% CI: 2.6-3.0); 60-64 years: 7.2% (95% CI: 6.8-7.6); 65-69 years: 14.5% (95% CI: 13.8-15.1); 70-74 years: 20.5% (95% CI: 19.7-21.2); 75-79 years: 28.9% (95% CI: 27.8-30.0); 80-84 years: 30.4% (95% CI: 28.7-32.1).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Based on these data it is possible to estimate the number of potential strokes in the next ten years in individuals aged between 55-84 years: 429,182 cases (95% CI: 410,881 to 447,932). If therapy were more effective, in accordance with the number expected from the Framingham study (254,113), 179,069 cases (95% CI: 156,768 to 193,819) could be prevented in Portugal, about 40% of all individuals who are at risk of suffering a stroke.
authors.affiliation: Instituto de Higiene e Medicina Social, Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de Coimbra, Coimbra, Portugal. massanocardoso@mail.telepac.pt
authors.forename: Salvador Massano
authors.initials: SM
authors.lastname: Cardoso
mesh_terms: D017677:Age Distribution; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D012307:Risk Factors; D020521:Stroke / Q000453:epidemiology*; D011795:Surveys and Questionnaires; D013997:Time Factors