title: A simplified model for the assessment of the impact probability of fragments.
abstract: A model was developed for the assessment of fragment impact probability on a target vessel, following the collapse and fragmentation of a primary vessel due to internal pressure. The model provides the probability of impact of a fragment with defined shape, mass and initial velocity on a target of a known shape and at a given position with respect to the source point. The model is based on the ballistic analysis of the fragment trajectory and on the determination of impact probabilities by the analysis of initial direction of fragment flight. The model was validated using available literature data.
authors.affiliation: Dipartimento di Ingegneria Chimica, Chimica Industriale e Scienza dei Materiali, Università degli Studi di Pisa, via Diotisalvi n.2, 56126 Pisa, Italy.
authors.forename: Gianfilippo
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Gubinelli
authors.forename: Severino
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Zanelli
authors.forename: Valerio
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Cozzani
mesh_terms: D000062:Accidents, Occupational; D044709:Forensic Ballistics; D007221:Industry; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D017751:Safety Management