title: [Application of "time series analysis" in the prediction of schistosomiasis prevalence in areas of "breaking dikes or opening sluice for waterstore" in Dongting Lake areas, China].
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To provide the fittest model for forecasting schistosomiasis prevalence in Haokou village of "breaking dikes or opening sluice for waterstore" in Dongting Lake areas by comparing the results of Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing, Autoregressive Model and Autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA model) from 1990 to 2002.
  
  
  METHODS
  Error sum of square of four statistical methods was compared and the fittest model was chosen.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Error sum of square of predicted schistosomiasis prevalence rates in Haokou village from 1994 to 2002 were 39.40, 39.86, 26.63, 22.54 respectively.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  ARIMA model seemed to be the fittest one in the prediction of schistosomiasis prevalence in Haokou village of "breaking dikes or opening sluice for waterstore" in Dongting Lake from 1990 to 2002.
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology, Faculty of Preventive Medicine, Fourth Military Medical University, Xi'an 710033, China.
authors.forename: Xiao-yong
authors.initials: XY
authors.lastname: Sai
authors.forename: Zhi-ying
authors.initials: ZY
authors.lastname: Zhang
authors.forename: De-zhong
authors.initials: DZ
authors.lastname: Xu
authors.forename: Yong-ping
authors.initials: YP
authors.lastname: Yan
authors.forename: Liang-shou
authors.initials: LS
authors.lastname: Li
authors.forename: Kai-ping
authors.initials: KP
authors.lastname: Cai
authors.forename: Yue-sheng
authors.initials: YS
authors.lastname: Li
authors.forename: Xiao-nong
authors.initials: XN
authors.lastname: Zhou
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D004812:Epidemiologic Methods; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D015233:Models, Statistical; D015995:Prevalence; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012554:Schistosomiasis japonica / Q000453:epidemiology*; D013997:Time Factors