Forecasting of spinal cord injury annual case numbers in Australia.
OBJECTIVE
To forecast annual numbers of cases of spinal cord injury (SCI) and to assess the effect on case mix.


METHODS
Cohort of incident cases from 1986 to 1997, with forecasting to 2021.


METHODS
Australian cases registered by treatment centers for the acute care and rehabilitation of SCI patients.


METHODS
A total of 2959 SCI patients, aged 15 years and over, identified through the Australian Spinal Cord Register.


METHODS
Not applicable.


METHODS
Incidence and case mix.


RESULTS
If the recent trends in SCI continue (ie, a 6.21% per annum rate increase in elderly men and a 2.8% per annum rate decrease in young men), the annual number of cases will increase from 253 in 1997 to 464 in 2021. In addition, the case mix would change substantially and the number and proportion of elderly persons with SCI would increase from 32 cases per annum in 1997 (13% of cases) to 233 per annum in 2021 (47% of cases). In addition, there would be a 143% increase in the number of cases of incomplete tetraplegia, from 88 cases per annum in 1997 to 214 cases per annum in 2021. Substantial increases would occur even if the age-specific rates of SCI were stable over the period.


CONCLUSIONS
Population growth, and aging, plus increasing rates of SCI in the elderly will have profound effects on the expected number of SCI patients and their case mix. Treatment centers in Australia will need to plan for these changes. At the same time, there should be increased efforts to prevent SCI in order to ameliorate the problem.
O'Connor
Peter J
PJ
Australian Spinal Cord Injury Register, Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, Canberra, Australia. peteroconnor@netscapenet.au
D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D001315:Australia / Q000453:epidemiology; D003953:Diagnosis-Related Groups / Q000639:trends; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D009017:Morbidity / Q000639:trends; D011157:Population Dynamics; D013119:Spinal Cord Injuries / Q000453:epidemiology*