title: Prediction of death and nonfatal myocardial infarction in high-risk patients: a comparison between the Duke treadmill score, peak exercise radionuclide angiography, and SPECT perfusion imaging.
abstract: Radionuclide exercise testing provides prognostic information in patients with known or suspected coronary artery disease (CAD). The relative contribution of 3 noninvasive tests--the Duke treadmill score (DTS), first-pass radionuclide angiography with calculation of the ejection fraction (RNA-EF), and perfusion SPECT--has not been comparatively assessed in a high-risk population undergoing all 3 tests.
  
  
  METHODS
  We identified 997 patients (75% male; median age, 60 y) who underwent exercise treadmill testing with RNA-EF and SPECT perfusion imaging as a single test. The relative prognostic power of each test was evaluated in both an unadjusted manner and after adjustment for differences in baseline characteristics using Cox proportional hazards models.
  
  
  RESULTS
  During a median follow-up of 4.1 y, 175 patients experienced outcome events. Without adjustment for baseline patient characteristics, each of the modalities proved highly predictive of the composite endpoint of cardiovascular death or nonfatal myocardial infarction (MI) (DTS chi(2) = 18.9, P = 0.0001; RNA-EF chi(2) = 34, P = 0.0001; SPECT chi(2) = 11.5, P = 0.0007). In clinically risk-adjusted models, RNA-EF was the most powerful predictor of cardiovascular death compared with the DTS and SPECT (chi(2) = 40.5, 27.6, and 19.8, respectively). Conversely, exercise SPECT perfusion was a stronger predictor of nonfatal MI than the DTS or RNA-EF (chi(2) = 26.7, 15.7, and 16.7, respectively).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The DTS, perfusion SPECT, and RNA-EF are each significant predictors of cardiovascular events in high-risk patients. The optimal risk stratification of patients for CAD may include all 3 modalities.
authors.affiliation: Cardiology Division, Department of Medicine, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC 27710, USA.
authors.forename: Lawrence
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Liao
authors.forename: William T
authors.initials: WT
authors.lastname: Smith
authors.forename: Robert H
authors.initials: RH
authors.lastname: Tuttle
authors.forename: Linda K
authors.initials: LK
authors.lastname: Shaw
authors.forename: R Edward
authors.initials: RE
authors.lastname: Coleman
authors.forename: Salvador
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Borges-Neto
mesh_terms: D005080:Exercise Test / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009203:Myocardial Infarction / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000000981:diagnostic imaging* / Q000453:epidemiology*; D009657:North Carolina / Q000453:epidemiology; D011379:Prognosis; D011875:Radionuclide Angiography / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods*; D012307:Risk Factors; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D015899:Tomography, Emission-Computed, Single-Photon / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*