title: Causal attribution and hindsight bias for economic developments.
abstract: Hindsight bias for economic developments was studied, with particular focus on the moderating effects of attitudes and causal attributions. Participants (N = 263) rated the likelihood of several economic developments 6 months before and 6 months after the euro introduction in 2002. Hindsight bias occurred selectively for attitude-consistent economic developments: Euro supporters showed stronger hindsight bias for positive developments than for negative ones; euro opponents showed the opposite pattern. Causal attribution further moderated the hindsight bias: participants who perceived a strong connection between the euro introduction and specific economic developments showed higher attitude-consistent hindsight bias than participants who perceived those developments as unrelated to the euro. It is argued that hindsight bias serves to stabilize subjective representations of the economy.
authors.affiliation: Institute of Psychology, University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria. erik.hoelzl@univie.ac.at
authors.forename: Erik
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Hölzl
authors.forename: Erich
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Kirchler
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D001290:Attitude; D003132:Commerce; D004467:Economics; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D019359:Knowledge; D008297:Male; D010465:Perception; D011897:Random Allocation