title: Prediction of recurrence after radical surgery for gastric cancer: a scoring system obtained from a prospective multicenter study.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  The aim of this prospective multicenter study was to define a scoring system for the prediction of tumor recurrence after potentially curative surgery for gastric cancer.
  
  
  BACKGROUND
  The estimation of the risk of recurrence in individual patient may be relevant in clinical practice, to apply adjuvant therapies after surgery, and plan an adequate follow-up program. Only a few studies, most of which were retrospective or performed on a limited number of patients, have developed a prognostic score in patients with gastric cancer.
  
  
  METHODS
  A total of 536 patients who underwent UICC R0 resection between 1988 and 1998 at 3 surgical departments in Italy were considered. All patients were followed up using a standard protocol after discharge from the hospital. The mean follow-up period was 56 +/- 44 months, and 94 +/- 29 months for surviving patients. The scoring system was calculated on the basis of a logistic regression model, where the presence of the recurrence was the dependent variable, and clinicopathologic variables were the covariates.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Recurrence occurred in 272 of 536 patients (50.7%). The scoring system for the prediction of the risk in individual cases gave values ranging from 1.4 to 99.9; the model distributed most cases in the extremes of the range. The risk of recurrence increased remarkably with score values; it was only 5% in patients with a score below 10, up to 95.4% in patients with a score of 91 to 100. No recurrence was observed in 43 patients with a score below 4, whereas all of the 56 patients with a score over 97 presented a recurrence. The model correctly predicted recurrence in 227 of 272 patients (sensitivity, 83.5%), whereas the absence of recurrence was correctly predicted in 214 of 264 patients (specificity, 81.1%); the overall accuracy was 82.2%. Prognostic score was clearly superior to UICC tumor stage in predicting recurrence. The high effectiveness of the score was confirmed in preliminary data of a validation study.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The scoring system obtained with a regression model on the basis of our follow-up data is useful for defining subgroups of patients at a very low or very high risk of tumor recurrence after radical surgery for gastric cancer. Final results of the validation study are essential for a clinical application of the model.
authors.affiliation: Department of General Surgery and Surgical Oncology, University of Siena, Siena, Italy.
authors.forename: Daniele
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Marrelli
authors.forename: Alfonso
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: De Stefano
authors.forename: Giovanni
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: de Manzoni
authors.forename: Paolo
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Morgagni
authors.forename: Alberto
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Di Leo
authors.forename: Franco
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Roviello
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D005260:Female; D005743:Gastrectomy; D006801:Humans; D008197:Lymph Node Excision; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D009361:Neoplasm Invasiveness; D009364:Neoplasm Recurrence, Local / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000473:pathology; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011379:Prognosis; D011446:Prospective Studies; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors; D013274:Stomach Neoplasms / Q000473:pathology / Q000601:surgery*