[Application of "time series analysis" in the prediction of schistosomiasis prevalence in areas of "breaking dikes or opening sluice for waterstore" in Dongting Lake areas, China].
OBJECTIVE
To provide the fittest model for forecasting schistosomiasis prevalence in Haokou village of "breaking dikes or opening sluice for waterstore" in Dongting Lake areas by comparing the results of Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing, Autoregressive Model and Autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA model) from 1990 to 2002.


METHODS
Error sum of square of four statistical methods was compared and the fittest model was chosen.


RESULTS
Error sum of square of predicted schistosomiasis prevalence rates in Haokou village from 1994 to 2002 were 39.40, 39.86, 26.63, 22.54 respectively.


CONCLUSIONS
ARIMA model seemed to be the fittest one in the prediction of schistosomiasis prevalence in Haokou village of "breaking dikes or opening sluice for waterstore" in Dongting Lake from 1990 to 2002.
Sai
Xiao-yong
XY
Department of Epidemiology, Faculty of Preventive Medicine, Fourth Military Medical University, Xi'an 710033, China.
Zhang
Zhi-ying
ZY
Xu
De-zhong
DZ
Yan
Yong-ping
YP
Li
Liang-shou
LS
Cai
Kai-ping
KP
Li
Yue-sheng
YS
Zhou
Xiao-nong
XN
D000818:Animals; D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D004812:Epidemiologic Methods; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D015233:Models, Statistical; D015995:Prevalence; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012554:Schistosomiasis japonica / Q000453:epidemiology*; D013997:Time Factors