title: Predicting the clinical course of suspected acute viral upper respiratory tract infection in children.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Suspected acute viral upper respiratory tract infection (SAVURTI) is the commonest acute reason why children consult in general practice. The clinical course varies widely and about one in five children re-consult for the same SAVURTI episode. If clinicians had feasible tools for predicting which children are likely to suffer a prolonged course, then additional explanations and possibly treatments could be provided at the initial consultation that might enable carers to manage the condition without re-consulting.
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  To identify features available on the day of consulting that might predict a prolonged clinical course among children with SAVURTI.
  
  
  METHODS
  Regression analysis using Canadian Respiratory Illness and Flu Scale (CARIFS) data from a randomized controlled trial cohort of children aged from 6 months to 12 years consulting in general practice with SAVURTI.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Two variables from the clinician's records ('age' and 'cough') and two variables from the CARIFS completed by carers on the day of consulting ('fever' and 'low energy, tired') explained approximately 15% of the variation present in CARIFS scores on day seven.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Children and carers may benefit from a clear account of the evidence that the clinical course of RTIs in children varies widely and may be longer that expected, and that prediction for individuals is difficult.
authors.affiliation: Department of General Practice, Cardiff University, Llanedeyrn Health Centre, Cardiff CF23 9PN, UK. butlercc@cf.ac.uk
authors.forename: Christopher C
authors.initials: CC
authors.lastname: Butler
authors.forename: Kerenza
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Hood
authors.forename: Paul
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Kinnersley
authors.forename: Mike
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Robling
authors.forename: Hayley
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Prout
authors.forename: Helen
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Houston
mesh_terms: D000208:Acute Disease; D018927:Anti-Asthmatic Agents / Q000627:therapeutic use; D000900:Anti-Bacterial Agents / Q000627:therapeutic use; D002170:Canada; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D004205:Cromolyn Sodium / Q000627:therapeutic use; D005194:Family Practice; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D008499:Medical Records; D010817:Physician-Patient Relations; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D012017:Referral and Consultation; D012141:Respiratory Tract Infections / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000188:drug therapy / Q000821:virology
chemical_list: D018927:Anti-Asthmatic Agents; D000900:Anti-Bacterial Agents; D004205:Cromolyn Sodium