title: Risk of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease in France.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  France has the second highest number of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) cases worldwide. Imports of bovine carcasses from the UK probably constituted the main source of exposure of the French population to the bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) agent. Meat products consumed whilst visiting the UK have also been considered as a possible source of exposure.
  
  
  METHODS
  We estimated the number of future vCJD cases in France using a simulation approach. Both the distribution of the vCJD incubation period and the age-dependent susceptibility to the BSE agent were estimated from UK data. The French epidemic was simulated by gender and birth-cohort from data on the infectivity of UK bovine tissues and simulations of the French consumption of infected beef products. We also used data on travel to the UK between 1980 and 1995.
  
  
  RESULTS
  We predicted 33 future cases of vCJD: 12 in the 1940-69 birth-cohort and 21 in the post-1969 birth-cohort. No case was predicted in the pre-1940 cohort. Based on our model, simulated vCJD cases occurred later in the older (1940-69) than in the younger cohort (post-1969). Age at onset was stable in the post-1969 cohort and increased in the older cohort. The model predicted a small excess of male patients. No case was attributed to travels in the UK.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  This modelling confirms that a large vCJD epidemic in France is very unlikely. Since France (where 60% of the total British exports of bovine carcasses were exported) has been highly exposed to the BSE agent, our results are reassuring for most countries worldwide.
authors.affiliation: INSERM U 360, Hôpital La Salpêtrière, 75651 Paris Cedex 13, France. marc.chadeau@chups.jussieu.fr
authors.forename: Marc
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Chadeau-Hyam
authors.forename: Annick
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Alpérovitch
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000818:Animals; D002417:Cattle; D015331:Cohort Studies; D003132:Commerce / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D007562:Creutzfeldt-Jakob Syndrome / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission; D016643:Encephalopathy, Bovine Spongiform / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission; D005260:Female; D005506:Food Contamination / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D005602:France / Q000453:epidemiology; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D008460:Meat / Q000382:microbiology; D008875:Middle Aged; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods; D014195:Travel; D006113:United Kingdom