title: Evaluation of Bayesian estimation of pharmacokinetic parameters.
abstract: The validity of pharmacokinetic parameters estimated by the maximum a posteriori probability (MAP) Bayesian method was investigated by simulation studies. A 1-compartment model with bolus intravenous administration was used as a pharmacokinetic model, and the coefficients of variation for the parameters and residual error were set at 30% and 10%, respectively. The accuracy of the posterior modes of pharmacokinetic parameters estimated by the MAP Bayesian method was assessed by the difference between the true value and the estimated value. The results showed that the accuracy of the Bayesian estimation depended on sampling times and on the differences between the prior means and individual true parameter values. For assessing the reliability and accuracy of the Bayesian estimation, the authors suggest using the whole posterior distribution of the pharmacokinetic parameters to describe the 95th percentile range for predicted blood concentration profiles. The authors believe that the proposed procedures provide helpful information for evaluating the Bayesian estimation of pharmacokinetic profiles.
authors.affiliation: Department of Biopharmaceutics and Clinical Pharmacokinetics, Meiji Pharmaceutical University, 2-522-1 Kiyose, Tokyo 204-8588, Japan.
authors.forename: Shinichi
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Tsuchiwata
authors.forename: Kiyoshi
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Mihara
authors.forename: Akifumi
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Yafune
authors.forename: Hiroyasu
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Ogata
mesh_terms: D001499:Bayes Theorem; D006801:Humans; D007262:Infusions, Intravenous; D008657:Metabolic Clearance Rate / Q000187:drug effects / Q000502:physiology; D004364:Pharmaceutical Preparations / Q000008:administration & dosage / Q000097:blood; D010599:Pharmacokinetics; D013997:Time Factors
chemical_list: D004364:Pharmaceutical Preparations