title: Preoperative prediction of long-term survival after coronary artery bypass grafting in patients with low left ventricular ejection fraction.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  We aimed to develop multivariable models of preoperative risk factors that predict long-term survival after coronary artery bypass grafting in patients with ejection fraction 25% or less.
  
  
  METHODS
  We retrospectively evaluated 544 consecutive patients with ejection fraction 25% or less who underwent coronary artery bypass grafting from 1992 to 2002 at a single institution. Long-term survival data (mean follow-up 4.1 years) were obtained from the National Death Index. Multivariable Cox regression analysis was performed to construct a predictive score for long-term mortality. A split-sample approach was also used building a model on a training group (n = 360); this model was then tested on a separate validation group (n = 184).
  
  
  RESULTS
  From the entire database, the predictive score was calculated according to the following equation: 0.430(if past congestive heart failure) + 0.049(age in years) + 0.507(if peripheral vascular disease) + 0.580(if emergency operation) + 0.366(if chronic obstructive pulmonary disease). The 5-year survivals of the predictive score quartiles were 82.3%, 78.2%, 65.5%, and 45.5% (P < .0001). The model based on the training group had four independent predictors for long-term mortality (the same as the listed equation except for past congestive heart failure). The 5-year survival rates of the quartiles were 90.1%, 75.4%, 64.3%, and 49.2% in the training group (P < .0001) and 77.4%, 71.2%, 65.8%, and 45.5% in the validation group (P = .0001).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Coronary artery bypass grafting in patients with severe ischemic cardiomyopathy achieves satisfactory midterm and long-term survival in selected patients. This new score, which is based on long-term data from a large number of patients, may aid clinicians in selecting therapeutic interventions for patients with ischemic cardiomyopathy.
authors.affiliation: College of Physicians and Surgeons of Columbia University, Department of Cardiothoracic Surgery, St Luke's-Roosevelt Hospital Center, New York, NY 10025, USA. jjd11@columbia.edu <jjd11@columbia.edu>
authors.forename: Joseph J
authors.initials: JJ
authors.lastname: DeRose
authors.forename: Ioannis K
authors.initials: IK
authors.lastname: Toumpoulis
authors.forename: Sandhya K
authors.initials: SK
authors.lastname: Balaram
authors.forename: John P
authors.initials: JP
authors.lastname: Ioannidis
authors.forename: Scott
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Belsley
authors.forename: Robert C
authors.initials: RC
authors.lastname: Ashton
authors.forename: Daniel G
authors.initials: DG
authors.lastname: Swistel
authors.forename: Constantine E
authors.initials: CE
authors.lastname: Anagnostopoulos
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D001026:Coronary Artery Bypass; D003324:Coronary Artery Disease / Q000401:mortality* / Q000503:physiopathology* / Q000601:surgery; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D009518:New York / Q000453:epidemiology; D011183:Postoperative Complications / Q000209:etiology / Q000401:mortality; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011300:Preoperative Care; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D013318:Stroke Volume / Q000502:physiology*; D016019:Survival Analysis; D013997:Time Factors; D016896:Treatment Outcome; D016277:Ventricular Function, Left / Q000502:physiology*