title: Predicting the risk of extinction from shared ecological characteristics.
abstract: Understanding the ultimate causes of population declines and extinction is vital in our quest to stop the currently rampant biodiversity loss. Comparison of ecological characteristics between threatened and nonthreatened species may reveal these ultimate causes. Here, we report an analysis of ecological characteristics of 23 threatened and 72 nonthreatened butterfly species. Our analysis reveals that threatened butterflies are characterized by narrow niche breadth, restricted resource distribution, poor dispersal ability, and short flight period. Based on the characteristics, we constructed an ecological extinction risk rank and predicted which of the currently nonthreatened species are at the highest risk of extinction. Our analysis reveals that two species currently classified as nonthreatened are, in fact, at high risk of extinction, and that the status of a further five species should be reconsidered.
authors.affiliation: Department of Biological and Environmental Science and Section of Natural Sciences, Jyväskylä University Museum, University of Jyväskylä, P.O. Box 35, 40014 Jyväskylä, Finland. janne.kotiaho@bytl.jyu.fi
authors.forename: Janne S
authors.initials: JS
authors.lastname: Kotiaho
authors.forename: Veijo
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Kaitala
authors.forename: Atte
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Komonen
authors.forename: Jussi
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Päivinen
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D044822:Biodiversity; D002080:Butterflies / Q000145:classification; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources; D017753:Ecosystem; D005387:Finland; D005426:Flight, Animal; D006801:Humans