title: Cardiac death and heart failure following primary angioplasty in extensive myocardial infarction: incremental prognostic value of clinical, functional and angiographic data.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  The incidence of late severe heart failure after primary angioplasty is not clear and few data are available about the clinical prognostic predictors of this event. The aims of our study were a) to evaluate the incidence of cardiac death and heart failure after an extensive acute myocardial infarction treated with primary angioplasty, and b) to identify, among clinical, ECG, functional, and angiographic variables, the outcome predictors and their incremental prognostic value.
  
  
  METHODS
  Two hundred and thirty-three patients with ST-segment elevation in > or = 4 leads, without cardiogenic shock, underwent primary angioplasty within 12 hours of symptom onset and were prospectively followed up for a median of 21 months for the combined endpoint of cardiac death and heart failure. The effects of clinical, ECG, functional, and angiographic data on the combined endpoint were evaluated using Cox's analysis. Separate models were developed including all variables of a given model plus significant variables of previous models to reproduce the usual clinical information flow.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Twelve (5%) deaths and 23 (10%) heart failures occurred. Diabetes (hazard ratio [HR] 6.46, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.99-20.98) and peak creatine kinase-MB (HR 1.002, 95% CI 1.001-1.004 per unit increment), wall motion score index (HR 1.46, 95% CI 0.35-6.15 per 0.1 unit increment), and TIMI flow grade < 3 after angioplasty (HR 5.35, 95% CI 2.04-14.02) were the only significant and independent prognostic indicators. ECG information did not improve the model, whilst functional and angiographic data provided incremental prognostic value over clinical information.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  At mid-term follow-up, extensive acute myocardial infarction patients undergoing primary angioplasty have a moderate heart failure event rate. The integrated evaluation of data routinely available from diagnostic work-up allows accurate prediction of the outcome; functional and angiographic data provide incremental prognostic information over clinical and ECG variables.
authors.affiliation: Cardiothoracic and Vascular Department A. De Gasperis, National Research Council, Niguarda Ca' Granda Hospital, Milan, Italy. elena.corrada@fastwebnet.it
authors.forename: Elena
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Corrada
authors.forename: Riccardo
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Bigi
authors.forename: Paola
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Colombo
authors.forename: Irene
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Bossi
authors.forename: Anna Maria
authors.initials: AM
authors.lastname: De Biase
authors.forename: Antonio
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Mafrici
authors.forename: Oberdan
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Parodi
authors.forename: Silvio
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Klugmann
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D015906:Angioplasty, Balloon, Coronary; D018572:Disease-Free Survival; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006333:Heart Failure / Q000209:etiology* / Q000401:mortality*; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009203:Myocardial Infarction / Q000150:complications / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000628:therapy*; D011379:Prognosis; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors; D012720:Severity of Illness Index; D013997:Time Factors