title: Trajectories of dynamic predictors of disorder: their meanings and implications.
abstract: Developmental psychopathologists are increasingly focused on characterizing heterogeneity of trajectories of psychological disorders across the life course (e.g., developmentally limited vs. chronic forms of disorder). Although the developmental significance of trajectories has been highlighted, there has been little attention to relations between trajectories and their etiologically and clinically relevant time-varying covariates (dynamic predictors). Depending upon the functional relation between a disorder and a dynamic predictor, we expect to see different trajectories of dynamic predictors. Thus, we propose a taxonomy of trajectories of dynamic predictors of course of disorder and provide an initial investigation into its validity. Using a mixed-gender, high-risk sample of young adults followed over 7 years, we identified dynamic predictors that covary with the course of alcohol use disorder (AUD). Based on a logically derived classification to facilitate interpretation of findings, three comparison groups were examined: persons whose AUD "remitted" (n = 33), those with a chronic AUD (n = 29), and nondiagnosers (n = 274). We hypothesized seven patterns of dynamic prediction (stable vulnerability indicators, course trackers, deterioration markers, developmentally specific variables, developmental lag markers, course-referenced variables, and recovery behaviors) and found evidence for five of them. The interpretation of markers of risk for development and course of AUDs and their implications for prevention, early intervention and formal/self-change treatments are discussed.
authors.affiliation: Department of Psychological Sciences, University of Missouri-Columbia, Columbia, MO 65211, USA. sherk@missouri.edu
authors.forename: Kenneth J
authors.initials: KJ
authors.lastname: Sher
authors.forename: Heather J
authors.initials: HJ
authors.lastname: Gotham
authors.forename: Amy L
authors.initials: AL
authors.lastname: Watson
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000437:Alcoholism / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000523:psychology; D018450:Disease Progression; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D001523:Mental Disorders / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000523:psychology*; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011569:Psychiatric Status Rating Scales; D012074:Remission Induction; D011795:Surveys and Questionnaires