Time-decreasing hazard and increasing time until the next earthquake.
The existence of a slowly always decreasing probability density for the recurrence times of earthquakes in the stationary case implies that the occurrence of an event at a given instant becomes more unlikely as time since the previous event increases. Consequently, the expected waiting time to the next earthquake increases with the elapsed time, that is, the event moves away fast to the future. We have found direct empirical evidence of this counterintuitive behavior in two worldwide catalogs as well as in diverse regional catalogs. Universal scaling functions describe the phenomenon well.
Corral
Alvaro
A
Grup de Física Estadística, Departament de Física, Facultat de Ciències, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, E-08193 Bellaterra, Barcelona, Spain. alvaro.corral@uab.es