title: Estimated impact of the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial on population mortality.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  The potential public health impact of the recently completed Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial (PCPT) is debated. The results indicated that the period prevalence of prostate cancer was reduced by 24.8% due to finasteride, whereas an increase in the rate of high-grade tumors (Gleason score 8-10) among men who were diagnosed with cancer also was found (5.0% in the PCPT placebo arm vs. 11.9% in the PCPT finasteride arm). Whether the increased Gleason score was valid or was a histologic artifact is under investigation.
  
  
  METHODS
  The authors estimated the number of person-years saved assuming a 24.8% reduction in the incidence of prostate cancer for 5 years among United States males age > or = 55 years. Scenarios for different proportions of patients with high-grade Gleason scores also were considered.
  
  
  RESULTS
  With a 24.8% reduction in the number of men with newly diagnosed prostate cancer, the authors estimated that 316,760 person-years would be saved due to finasteride in the United States. An absolute increase of 6.9% in the proportion of men with high-grade tumors in the United States cancer population (corresponding to the difference between the rates on the placebo and finasteride arms of the PCPT) would reduce the number of person-years saved to 262,567. For each absolute increase of 5% in the proportion of patients with high-grade tumors, the number of person-years saved would be reduced by approximately 39,000.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The results of the PCPT may have a major impact on population mortality from prostate cancer if they are applied clinically. The potential detrimental effects of an increased rate of patients who have prostate cancer with high-grade Gleason scores would be outweighed by a reduction in incidence.
authors.affiliation: Southwest Oncology Group Statistical Center, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington, USA.
authors.forename: Joseph M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Unger
authors.forename: Ian M
authors.initials: IM
authors.lastname: Thompson
authors.forename: Michael
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: LeBlanc
authors.forename: John J
authors.initials: JJ
authors.lastname: Crowley
authors.forename: Phyllis J
authors.initials: PJ
authors.lastname: Goodman
authors.forename: Leslie G
authors.initials: LG
authors.lastname: Ford
authors.forename: Charles A
authors.initials: CA
authors.lastname: Coltman
mesh_terms: D018120:Finasteride / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011471:Prostatic Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000401:mortality* / Q000473:pathology / Q000517:prevention & control; D016032:Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic
chemical_list: D018120:Finasteride