title: [Analysis on pneumoconiosis characteristic and its prediction in one coal mine].
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  We aimed to investigate the characteristic of pneumoconiosis on coal miners and provide scientific evidences for its prevention.
  
  
  METHODS
  To analyze the data of pneumoconiosis from one coal mine with the historical study and to predict its development tendency by the grey model of GM (1,1).
  
  
  RESULTS
  (1) The year of work experience of pneumoconiosis (stage I) was 19.9 years and the age of its diagnosis (stage I) was 51.4 years. There was an obvious tendency that they became longer with years' back-shift. (2) During near forty years, the progression rates of pneumoconiosis from stage I to II and II to III were 13.6% and 11.2%, and the mean time was 8.3 and 8.1 years, respectively. It was obvious that the progression rate decreased gradually and the span prolonged with years' back-shift. (3) The complication rate of pneumoconiosis with lung tuberculosis was 12.5% and it increased with the progression of pneumoconiosis. The rate in dead cases was significantly higher than that in live cases (P < 0.01). (4) The sequence of death causes was pneumoconiosis (20.0%), lung tuberculosis (18.3%), chronic cor pulmonale (17.9%), and pulmonary carcinoma (9.0%), et al. (5) It was predicted that there would be 28 new cases every year during 2001-2020 years and the accumulated numbers of pneumoconiosis would be 2854 cases in 2020, but with a downward trends in the prevalence of -1.7%.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  It was suggested that the prevalence of pneumoconiosis should decrease obviously. However, it still remains a challenge about the task of effectively preventing and curing it or its complication.
authors.affiliation: Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Tongji Medical College, Wuhan 430030, China.
authors.forename: Haibing
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Yang
authors.forename: Lei
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Yang
authors.forename: Qilong
authors.initials: Q
authors.lastname: Chu
authors.forename: Shaoqing
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.forename: Dezhi
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Lu
authors.forename: Xiaoming
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Jia
authors.forename: Shaokui
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Li
authors.forename: Zhifang
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Song
authors.forename: Guihai
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Han
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D002423:Cause of Death; D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D003032:Coal Mining; D018450:Disease Progression; D006801:Humans; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011009:Pneumoconiosis / Q000150:complications / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000401:mortality; D014397:Tuberculosis, Pulmonary / Q000150:complications