title: Theory for designing nature reserves for single species.
abstract: We examine the question of the optimal number of reserves that should be established to maximize the persistence of a species. We assume that the mean time to extinction of a single population increases as a power of the habitat area, that there is a certain amount of habitat to be reserved, and that the aim is to determine how this habitat is most efficiently divided. The optimal configuration depends on whether the management objective is to maximize the mean time to extinction or minimize the risk of extinction. When maximizing the mean time to extinction, the optimal number of independent reserves does not depend on the amount of available habitat for the reserve system. In contrast, the risk of extinction is minimized when individual reserves are equal to the optimal patch size, making the optimal number of reserves linearly proportional to the amount of available habitat. A model that includes dispersal and correlation in the incidence of extinction demonstrates the importance of considering the relative rate at which these two factors decrease with distance between reserves. A small number of reserves is optimal when the mean time to extinction increases rapidly with habitat area or when risks of extinction are high.
authors.affiliation: Australian Research Centre for Urban Ecology, Royal Botanic Gardens Melbourne and School of Botany, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria 3010, Australia. mamcca@unimelb.edu.au
authors.forename: Michael A
authors.initials: MA
authors.lastname: McCarthy
authors.forename: Colin J
authors.initials: CJ
authors.lastname: Thompson
authors.forename: Hugh P
authors.initials: HP
authors.lastname: Possingham
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources; D053476:Extinction, Biological; D008954:Models, Biological; D012306:Risk