title: Forecasting one's future based on fleeting subjective experiences.
abstract: When we forecast our futures, to what extent do we rely on explicit and concrete facts versus implicit and fleeting subjective experiences? Results from two studies reveal that forecasting judgments hinge on at least two fleeting experiences: the specific incidental emotions one happens to feel at the time of forming a judgment and the subjective ease-of-thought-generation. Results also reveal that imposing accountability for the accuracy of one's forecast provides no simple remedy. Incidental emotions, the ease-of-thought-generation, and accountability combine multiplicatively in a three-way interaction. Although accountability attenuates the respective effects of incidental fear and incidental anger, doing so has the undesirable effect of amplifying the ease-of-thought-generation effects that fear otherwise suppresses. In no instance does accountability completely eliminate the unintended effects of these fleeting subjective experiences. Discussion addresses implications for theories of affect and social cognition as well as for applications to risk perception.
authors.affiliation: Department of Social and Decision Sciences, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213, USA. jlerner@andrew.cmu.edu
authors.forename: Jennifer S
authors.initials: JS
authors.lastname: Lerner
authors.forename: Roxana M
authors.initials: RM
authors.lastname: Gonzalez
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000704:Analysis of Variance; D004644:Emotions / Q000502:physiology; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting / Q000379:methods*; D006801:Humans; D007600:Judgment / Q000502:physiology*; D008016:Life Change Events; D008297:Male; D008960:Models, Psychological; D012647:Self-Assessment; D012938:Social Perception; D013334:Students / Q000523:psychology; D013997:Time Factors