[Prognosis of the reproduction health care in the Czech Republic until 2010: II. Planned parenthood].
OBJECTIVE
To prepare a prognosis of development of contraception, artificial termination of pregnancy and asisted reproductive technologies until 2010, based on the trend in their indicators in the previous years.


METHODS
A retrospective epidemiological study to be used as a basis for the prognosis


METHODS
Mother and Child Care Institute, Prague - Podolí


METHODS
For outlining the probable trend in the use of various types of contraceptives (IUD) as well as for artificial termination of pregnancy, evaluated according to their internationally recognised indicators, the extrapolation of the trends in these criteria prevalent in the period 1995-2002 was used.


RESULTS
The prognosis of increase in the number of female users of hormonal contraception at the expense of IUD as well as the decrease in the number of women solving their problem with unwanted pregnancy by artificial termination of pregnancy (ATP), based on the said extrapolation of their indicators with a prospect until 2010, is probably overly optimistic. Due to probable changes in the political, social and economic circumstances as well as in the women's attitudes, it is expected that this trend will slow down. This is why it is expected that the number of female users of hormonal contraception will increase merely to 500 and that the women using IUD will decrease to 50 per 1,000 fertile women. Also, as concerns the number of ATPs, it is expected that it will decrease merely just below 10 for every 1,000 fertile women and to 20 for every 100 births. Even if the trends of all these indicators slow down, it can be expected that they will reach the average levels reported in the countries of Western Europe. As for the trend in asisted reproductive technologies (ART), whose share in the total number of births will rise, the main emphasis will be put on consistent nationwide registration, amendments to legislation and research mainly in the area of psycho-neurological development of these children, as recommended by the WHO.


CONCLUSIONS
The expected rate of growth of the number of female users of effective contraception and the expected rate of decline of the number of ATPs, corresponding to the trend of the recent years, will probably decrease by 2010 but the average levels reported by the countries of Western Europe will still be reached. According to the recommendation of the WHO, the trend in some forms of ART will require research in the field of psycho-neurological development of the children from these pregnancies until they reach adulthood as well as some amendments to legislation.
Stembera
Z
Z
Ustav pro péci o matku a díte, Praha.
Velebil
P
P
D000028:Abortion, Induced / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000639:trends*; D003271:Contraceptive Agents, Female / Q000008:administration & dosage*; D018153:Czech Republic; D004363:Drug Utilization / Q000639:trends; D005193:Family Planning Services; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007434:Intrauterine Devices / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000639:trends; D011247:Pregnancy; D012099:Reproductive Techniques / Q000706:statistics & numerical data* / Q000639:trends
D003271:Contraceptive Agents, Female