title: Probabilistic model for estimating field mortality of target and non-target bird populations when simultaneously exposed to avicide bait.
abstract: A probabilistic model was developed to estimate target and non-target avian mortality associated with the application of the avicide CPTH (3-chloro-p-toluidine hydrochloride) to minimize sprouting rice damage in the southern USA. CPTH exposures for individual birds were predicted by random sampling from species-specific non-parametric distributions of bait seed consumption and CPTH residues detected on individual bait seeds. Mortality was predicted from the species-specific exposure versus mortality relationship. Individual variations in this response were captured in the model by Monte Carlo sampling from species-specific distributions of slopes and median toxicity values (LD50) for each bird. The model was used to simultaneously predict mortality (percentage of exposed population and number of birds killed/weight of consumed bait) for a target (blackbird) and non-target (mourning dove) species feeding on bait sites for up to five consecutive days.
authors.affiliation: USDA/APHIS/Wildlife Services, National Wildlife Research Center, 4101 LaPorte Avenue, Fort Collins, CO 80521, USA. john.j.johnston@aphis.usda.gov
authors.forename: John J
authors.initials: JJ
authors.lastname: Johnston
authors.forename: Melvin J
authors.initials: MJ
authors.lastname: Holmes
authors.forename: Andy
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Hart
authors.forename: Dennis J
authors.initials: DJ
authors.lastname: Kohler
authors.forename: Randal S
authors.initials: RS
authors.lastname: Stahl
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D001717:Birds; D004305:Dose-Response Relationship, Drug; D008954:Models, Biological; D015233:Models, Statistical; D015394:Molecular Structure; D010575:Pesticides / Q000494:pharmacology*; D013045:Species Specificity; D014052:Toluidines / Q000737:chemistry / Q000494:pharmacology*
chemical_list: D010575:Pesticides; D014052:Toluidines; C019296:starlicide