[Prognosis of the reproduction health care in the Czech Republic until 2010. I. Perinatal care].
OBJECTIVE
A prognosis of the development of perinatal care in the Czech Republic until 2010


METHODS
An epidemiological study to be used as a basis for the prognosis.


METHODS
Mother and Child Care Institute, Prague.


METHODS
The primary source data on the indicators of the level of perinatal care as well as on some circumstances under which this care is being developed and on which their prognosis is based were drawn from the information obtained from their annual nationwide analysis.


RESULTS
The prognosis of the development of perinatal care until 2010 builds on the previous prognosis from the period 1980-2000, whose results, when analysed retrospectively, proved a significant dependence of professional development on political, demographic, social and economic circumstances. Increase of the level of perinatal care, evaluated according to internationally recognised criteria, resulted in decreasing the maternal, perinatal and infant mortality rates to levels reported by a few countries in the world. The fact that these levels have been stagnating since 2000 is a result of two conflicting processes. On one hand, there is the improvement in the standard of care; on the other hand, there is deterioration in some of the above-mentioned circumstances. The fact that the reserves for further decrease in professional care have been used up and, conversely, the risk that some of the above-mentioned circumstances will deteriorate have raised concerns that some of the indicators of this care will deteriorate as shown by the extrapolation of the trend in these indicators prevalent in the last years carried out for the period until 2010. Two prognoses with differently serious impacts were formulated on the basis of this extrapolation.


CONCLUSIONS
The development of perinatal care is dependent on the circumstances under which it is being developed. The fact that the reserves in development and organisation of this specific field have been used up, which resulted in decreasing the maternal, perinatal and infant mortality rates to levels, which are among the lowest ones in the world, and, conversely, the deterioration in some of the above-mentioned circumstances have raised concerns that the internationally recognised indicators of this care will deteriorate.
Stembera
Z
Z
Ustav pro péci o matku a díte, Praha.
Velebil
P
P
D018153:Czech Republic / Q000453:epidemiology; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D007226:Infant Mortality; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D018743:Perinatal Care / Q000639:trends; D011247:Pregnancy