title: Lifetime prevalence estimates of major depression: an indirect estimation method and a quantification of recall bias.
abstract: The measurement of lifetime prevalence of depression in cross-sectional surveys is biased by recall problems. We estimated it indirectly for two countries using modelling, and quantified the underestimation in the empirical estimate for one. A microsimulation model was used to generate population-based epidemiological measures of depression. We fitted the model to 1-and 12-month prevalence data from The Netherlands Mental Health Survey and Incidence Study (NEMESIS) and the Australian Adult Mental Health and Wellbeing Survey. The lowest proportion of cases ever having an episode in their life is 30% of men and 40% of women, for both countries. This corresponds to a lifetime prevalence of 20 and 30%, respectively, in a cross-sectional setting (aged 15-65). The NEMESIS data were 38% lower than these estimates. We conclude that modelling enabled us to estimate lifetime prevalence of depression indirectly. This method is useful in the absence of direct measurement, but also showed that direct estimates are underestimated by recall bias and by the cross-sectional setting.
authors.affiliation: Department of Public Health, Erasmus Medical Center, University Hospital Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands. m.kruijshaar@erasmusmc.nl
authors.forename: Michelle Elisabeth
authors.initials: ME
authors.lastname: Kruijshaar
authors.forename: Jan
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Barendregt
authors.forename: Theo
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Vos
authors.forename: Ron
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: de Graaf
authors.forename: Jan
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Spijker
authors.forename: Gavin
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Andrews
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D001315:Australia / Q000453:epidemiology; D003430:Cross-Sectional Studies; D003863:Depression / Q000453:epidemiology*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D011939:Mental Recall; D008875:Middle Aged; D009426:Netherlands / Q000453:epidemiology; D015588:Observer Variation; D015995:Prevalence