title: Predicting the outcome of optic neuritis: evaluation of risk factors after 30 years of follow-up.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a common disease with considerable risk for disability. Optic neuritis (ON) is a common first symptom of MS but it can also remain an isolated episode. Therefore, predicting the outcome of ON has gained in importance, particularly in light of current discussions of early disease modifying treatments in individuals at risk of developing MS. We reported previously on our cohort of 86 patients with acute monosymptomatic unilateral ON of whom 33 had progressed to MS after up to 18 years. Three patients had died. The present study extends the observation period to 31 years.
  
  
  METHODS
  Patients were followed for up to 31 years or until a diagnosis of MS was made. Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) was examined at onset. HLA class I and II antigens were determined. Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) was performed during follow up.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Only one of 50 patients at risk developed clinical manifestations of MS during the extended follow up period. The estimated 15-year-risk of MS was 40 % (confidence interval [CI] 31%-52%). Most cases, 20 of 34 or 60%, occurred within three years. Among factors present at onset, CSF with mononuclear pleocytosis and/or oligoclonal Ig increased the risk for subsequent MS significantly, 49% (CI 38%-65%) compared with 23 % (CI 12%-44%) for those with normal CSF, p=0.02. Younger patients and those with winter onset also had greater risk. Recurrence of ON similarly elevated the risk significantly, p<0.001. After 19-31 years MRI lesions suggestive of demyelinating disease were detected in 20 of 30 individuals although no clinical manifestations of MS had occurred.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The risk of MS in this large population-based prospective ON patient series was 40% and significantly higher in those with inflammatory CSF abnormalities at onset. Clinically silent MRI lesions suggestive of MS were detected in a majority of those with "ON-only". This finding should be taken into account when discussing prognosis and early intervention in patients with clinically isolated ON.
authors.affiliation: Department of Neurology, University Hospital, 22185 Lund, Sweden.
authors.forename: Petra
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Nilsson
authors.forename: Elna-Marie
authors.initials: EM
authors.lastname: Larsson
authors.forename: Pia
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Maly-Sundgren
authors.forename: Roland
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Perfekt
authors.forename: Magnhild
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Sandberg-Wollheim
mesh_terms: D000367:Age Factors; D017668:Age of Onset; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006680:HLA Antigens / Q000378:metabolism; D006801:Humans; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D008279:Magnetic Resonance Imaging / Q000379:methods; D008297:Male; D009103:Multiple Sclerosis / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000209:etiology; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D009460:Neurologic Examination / Q000379:methods; D009902:Optic Neuritis / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000378:metabolism / Q000473:pathology; D017063:Outcome Assessment, Health Care; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D012008:Recurrence; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors; D012621:Seasons; D012737:Sex Factors
chemical_list: D006680:HLA Antigens