Inconsistent probability estimates of a hypothesis: the role of contrasting support.
This paper studies consistency in the judged probability of a target hypothesis in lists of mutually exclusive nonexhaustive hypotheses. Specifically, it controls the role played by the support of displayed competing hypotheses and the relatedness between the target hypothesis and its alternatives. Three experiments are reported. In all experiments, groups of people were presented with a list of mutually exclusive nonexhaustive causes of a person's death. In the first two experiments, they were asked to judge the probability of each cause as that of the person's decease. In the third experiment, people were asked for a frequency estimation task. Target causes were presented in all lists. Several other alternative causes to the target ones differed across the lists. Findings show that the judged probability/frequency of a target cause changes as a function of the support of the displayed competing causes. Specifically, it is higher when its competing displayed causes have low rather than high support. Findings are consistent with the contrastive support hypothesis within the support theory.
Bonini
Nicolao
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Department of Cognitive Sciences and Education, Center for Decision Research, University of Trento, Rovereto, Italy. nicolao.bonini@unitn.it
Gonzalez
Michel
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D006801:Humans; D007600:Judgment; D010865:Pilot Projects; D011336:Probability