title: Does EuroSCORE predict length of stay and specific postoperative complications after heart valve surgery?
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  EuroSCORE is the most rigorously evaluated scoring system in cardiac surgery. The study aim was to evaluate the performance of EuroSCORE in the prediction of in-hospital postoperative length of stay and specific major postoperative complications after heart valve surgery.
  
  
  METHODS
  Data obtained from 1,105 consecutive patients who underwent isolated or combined heart valve surgery were collected prospectively. The EuroSCORE model (standard and logistic) was used to predict in-hospital mortality, prolonged length of stay (> 20 days) and major postoperative complications. A C statistic (receiver operating characteristic curve) was used to test discrimination of the EuroSCORE. Calibration of the model was assessed by the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit statistic.
  
  
  RESULTS
  In-hospital mortality was 6.3%, and 21.7% of patients had one or more major complication. EuroSCORE showed very good discriminatory ability in predicting postoperative renal failure (C statistic: 0.78) and good discriminatory ability in predicting in-hospital mortality (C statistic: 0.72), prolonged length of stay (C statistic: 0.71), stroke over 24 h (C statistic: 0.73), gastrointestinal complications (C statistic: 0.73) and respiratory failure (C statistic: 0.71). There were no differences in terms of the discriminatory ability between standard and logistic EuroSCORE. The standard EuroSCORE model showed good calibration in predicting these outcomes (Hosmer-Lemeshow: p > 0.05). The logistic EuroSCORE model showed good calibration, except for prolonged length of stay and respiratory failure.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  EuroSCORE can be used to predict not only in-hospital mortality, for which it was originally designed, but also prolonged length of stay and specific postoperative complications such as renal failure, stroke over 24 h, gastrointestinal complications and respiratory failure within the whole context of heart valve surgery. These outcomes can be predicted accurately using the standard EuroSCORE, which is very easily calculated.
authors.affiliation: Columbia University College of Physicians and Surgeons, Department of Cardiothoracic Surgery, St. Luke's - Roosevelt Hospital Center, New York, NY, USA. toumpoul@otenet.gr
authors.forename: Ioannis K
authors.initials: IK
authors.lastname: Toumpoulis
authors.forename: Constantine E
authors.initials: CE
authors.lastname: Anagnostopoulos
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D016208:Databases, Factual; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D006349:Heart Valve Diseases / Q000601:surgery*; D006801:Humans; D007902:Length of Stay; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011183:Postoperative Complications / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology; D011446:Prospective Studies; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity