Evidence for the impact of global warming on the long-term population dynamics of common birds.
Taking the opportunity in 2003 of the exceptionally warm spring in France as a natural simulation of possible future climate, we analysed common bird productivity using the French long-term capture-recapture national monitoring scheme. Two-thirds of the 32 species studied had an above-average productivity in 2003. However, this gain in productivity was not consistent among species, with a relatively low productivity for species exhibiting a long-term decline and relatively high productivity for stable or increasing species. Such links between long-term and short-term dynamics suggest that the impact of increasingly warm springs on productivity is a major component of the recent population dynamics of a variety of common bird species.
Julliard
Romain
R
Centre de Recherches sur la Biologie des Populations d'Oiseaux, Museum National d'Histoire Naturelle, F-75005 Paris, France. julliard@mnhn.fr
Jiguet
Frédéric
F
Couvet
Denis
D
D000818:Animals; D001717:Birds / Q000502:physiology*; D005602:France; D017752:Greenhouse Effect; D016015:Logistic Models; D008954:Models, Biological; D011157:Population Dynamics; D012098:Reproduction / Q000502:physiology*; D013045:Species Specificity; D013696:Temperature; D013997:Time Factors