title: A linear model for managing the risk of antimicrobial resistance originating in food animals.
abstract: A linear population risk model used by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Center for Veterinary Medicine (CVM) estimates the risk of human cases of campylobacteriosis caused by fluoroquinolone-resistant Campylobacter. Among the cases of campylobacteriosis attributed to domestically produced chicken, the fluoroquinolone resistance is assumed to result from the use of fluoroquinolones in poultry in the United States. Properties of the linear population risk model are contrasted with those of a farm-to-fork model commonly used for microbial risk assessments. The utility of the linear population model for the purpose for which it was used by CVM is discussed.
authors.affiliation: FDA Center for Veterinary Medicine, 7500 Standish Place, Rockville, MD 20855, USA. mbarthol@cvm.fda.gov
authors.forename: Mary J
authors.initials: MJ
authors.lastname: Bartholomew
authors.forename: David J
authors.initials: DJ
authors.lastname: Vose
authors.forename: Linda R
authors.initials: LR
authors.lastname: Tollefson
authors.forename: Curtis C
authors.initials: CC
authors.lastname: Travis
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D000900:Anti-Bacterial Agents / Q000494:pharmacology*; D002167:Campylobacter / Q000378:metabolism*; D002169:Campylobacter Infections / Q000517:prevention & control*; D002645:Chickens / Q000382:microbiology; D004305:Dose-Response Relationship, Drug; D024901:Drug Resistance, Multiple, Bacterial; D024841:Fluoroquinolones / Q000494:pharmacology; D019649:Food Industry / Q000379:methods; D005516:Food Microbiology; D016015:Logistic Models; D015233:Models, Statistical; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011200:Poultry; D012306:Risk; D018570:Risk Assessment
chemical_list: D000900:Anti-Bacterial Agents; D024841:Fluoroquinolones