title: Long-range trends in adult mortality: models and projection methods.
abstract: In the study reported here, I had two objectives: (1) to test a new version of the logistic model for the pattern of change over time in age-specific adult mortality rates and (2) to develop a new method for projecting future trends in adult mortality. A test of the goodness of fit of the logistic model for the force of mortality indicated that its slope parameter is nearly constant over time. This finding suggests a variant of the model that is called the shifting logistic model. A new projection method, based on the shifting mortality model, is proposed and compared with the widely used Lee-Carter procedure.
authors.affiliation: Population Council, 1 Dag Hammarskjold Plaza, New York, NY 10017, USA. jbongaarts@popcouncil.org
authors.forename: John
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Bongaarts
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D017677:Age Distribution; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D003710:Demography; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting / Q000379:methods*; D006801:Humans; D038622:Internationality; D015993:Life Tables; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009026:Mortality / Q000639:trends*; D017678:Sex Distribution; D013997:Time Factors