Research strategies for magnetic fields and cancer.
Widespread concerns about whether electric and magnetic fields (EMF) could adversely affect human health have been raised in epidemiologic studies reported since the 1980s. Possible EMF health effects have been widely publicized in the popular press since that time. We consider here three possible mechanisms of action of EMF on childhood leukemia. We identify the first as "magnetic fields": this hypothesis relates the average level of magnetic field to the incidence of childhood leukemia. We identify a second, recently proposed, mechanism as "contact current": this hypothesis relates the low voltage and consequent current that occurs on the domestic water pipe, due to U.S. grounding practices, as a source for exposure of children. The third hypothesis is that the relationship observed is spurious. Using a modified example taken from the work of Von Winterfeldt and Keeney, we use Decision Analysis to estimate the value of information for distinguishing between the three hypotheses. We believe that this improves on the usual process for deciding on research budgets. Depending on which hypothesis we favor a priori, the value of being informed ranges from US 101 dollars to US 233 dollars per "problem household." Since there could be as many as 2 million such households, the value of information for resolving this issue could approach half a billion dollars! We find that there is no value of information for finding the odds ratio given the contact current hypothesis. In writing this article, we have consciously kept the computations as simple as possible so as to engage the reader's attention and interest. In a penultimate section, we suggest numerous possible extensions for a group interested in discussing and deciding on the value of research on the relationship between magnetic fields and cancer.
Peck
Stephen C
SC
Flèche Inc. Peck_Stephen@msn.com
Kavet
Robert
R
D002648:Child; D004574:Electromagnetic Fields / Q000009:adverse effects*; D004781:Environmental Exposure; D004812:Epidemiologic Methods; D016021:Epidemiologic Studies; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007953:Leukemia, Radiation-Induced / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000209:etiology* / Q000517:prevention & control*; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000191:economics / Q000379:methods*; D012307:Risk Factors; D013997:Time Factors; D014481:United States