title: A potential decline in life expectancy in the United States in the 21st century.
abstract: Forecasts of life expectancy are an important component of public policy that influence age-based entitlement programs such as Social Security and Medicare. Although the Social Security Administration recently raised its estimates of how long Americans are going to live in the 21st century, current trends in obesity in the United States suggest that these estimates may not be accurate. From our analysis of the effect of obesity on longevity, we conclude that the steady rise in life expectancy during the past two centuries may soon come to an end.
authors.affiliation: University of Illinois at Chicago, Chicago 60612, USA. sjayo@uic.edu
authors.forename: S Jay
authors.initials: SJ
authors.lastname: Olshansky
authors.forename: Douglas J
authors.initials: DJ
authors.lastname: Passaro
authors.forename: Ronald C
authors.initials: RC
authors.lastname: Hershow
authors.forename: Jennifer
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Layden
authors.forename: Bruce A
authors.initials: BA
authors.lastname: Carnes
authors.forename: Jacob
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Brody
authors.forename: Leonard
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Hayflick
authors.forename: Robert N
authors.initials: RN
authors.lastname: Butler
authors.forename: David B
authors.initials: DB
authors.lastname: Allison
authors.forename: David S
authors.initials: DS
authors.lastname: Ludwig
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D003141:Communicable Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000401:mortality; D048909:Diabetes Complications / Q000191:economics; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D017048:Health Care Costs / Q000639:trends; D006801:Humans; D008017:Life Expectancy / Q000639:trends*; D008136:Longevity; D008297:Male; D009765:Obesity / Q000150:complications* / Q000191:economics / Q000401:mortality*; D012307:Risk Factors; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology