Causes of increased mortality from hepatocellular carcinoma in high incidence country: Taiwan experience.
BACKGROUND
Since 1991, a rapid rise in mortality from hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has been observed in Taiwan in subjects aged >/=20 years. The aim of the present study was to assess whether poor survival or excess incident cases pertaining to a cohort effect or a time-period effect accounted for such a rise.


METHODS
A total of 41 150 deaths and 51 201 incident HCC patients (International Classification of Diseases = 155.0) aged 20-79 years between 1985 and 1998 were studied. Trends in HCC mortality rates were divided into two groups: annual case-fatality rates and HCC incidence rates by age. Poisson regression was used to distinguish a cohort effect from a time-period effect on the incidence of HCC.


RESULTS
Subjects aged >50 years after 1991 had the greatest risk of death (relative risk [RR] = 11.3; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 11.0-11.7). Annual case-fatality rates declined from 1.6 in 1985 to 0.84 in 1998, whereas there was a remarkable increase in incidence, particularly from 1991 onward, in the >50-year-olds. It was found that subjects aged >50 years who were born before 1944 were the group most susceptible to HCC (RR = 9.3; 95%CI: 9.1-9.5).


CONCLUSIONS
Increased incidence, particularly in individuals over 50, rather than poor survival, accounts for the rapid rise in mortality from HCC.
Jan
Chyi-Feng
CF
Department of Family Medicine, National Taiwan University Hospital, College of Medicine, Taipei, Taiwan.
Chen
Chien-Jen
CJ
Chen
Hsiu-Hsi
HH
D000328:Adult; D017677:Age Distribution; D000368:Aged; D006528:Carcinoma, Hepatocellular / Q000401:mortality*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008113:Liver Neoplasms / Q000401:mortality*; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D016012:Poisson Distribution; D012307:Risk Factors; D013624:Taiwan / Q000453:epidemiology