title: Hydrogeologic unit flow characterization using transition probability geostatistics.
abstract: This paper describes a technique for applying the transition probability geostatistics method for stochastic simulation to a MODFLOW model. Transition probability geostatistics has some advantages over traditional indicator kriging methods including a simpler and more intuitive framework for interpreting geologic relationships and the ability to simulate juxtapositional tendencies such as fining upward sequences. The indicator arrays generated by the transition probability simulation are converted to layer elevation and thickness arrays for use with the new Hydrogeologic Unit Flow package in MODFLOW 2000. This makes it possible to preserve complex heterogeneity while using reasonably sized grids and/or grids with nonuniform cell thicknesses.
authors.affiliation: Environmental Modeling Research Laboratory, 242 Clyde Building, Brigham Young University, Provo, UT 84602, USA. njones@et.byu.edu
authors.forename: Norman L
authors.initials: NL
authors.lastname: Jones
authors.forename: Justin R
authors.initials: JR
authors.lastname: Walker
authors.forename: Steven F
authors.initials: SF
authors.lastname: Carle
mesh_terms: D005544:Forecasting; D055593:Geological Phenomena; D005844:Geology; D015233:Models, Statistical; D012987:Soil; D014872:Water Movements; D014881:Water Supply
chemical_list: D012987:Soil