title: Enlarged waist combined with elevated triglycerides is a strong predictor of accelerated atherogenesis and related cardiovascular mortality in postmenopausal women.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Upward trends of obesity urge more effective identification of those at cardiovascular risk. A simple dichotomous indicator, enlarged waist (> or =88 cm) combined with elevated triglycerides (> or =1.45 mmol/L) (EWET), was shown to offer advantages in identifying individuals with atherogenic "lipid overaccumulation" compared with other indicators, including the metabolic syndrome defined by the National Cholesterol Education Program (MS-NCEP). Whether EWET offers superior disease and event prediction in postmenopausal women, however, remains unknown.
  
  
  RESULTS
  A community-based sample of 557 women (48 to 76 years of age) were followed up for 8.5+/-0.3 years to assess the utility of EWET and MS-NCEP in estimating the risk of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality and the annual progression rate of aortic calcification. At baseline, 15.8% of women had EWET and 17.6% had MS-NCEP. All-cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality were increased in carriers of the dichotomous indicators (P<0.001). After adjustment for age, smoking, and LDL cholesterol, presence of EWET was associated with a 4.7-fold (95% CI, 2.2 to 9.8; P<0.001) increased risk and presence of MS-NCEP was associated with a 3.2-fold (95% CI, 1.5 to 6.5; P<0.001) increased risk for fatal cardiovascular events. Exclusion of women with prevalent diabetes did not change these trends; respective hazard ratios were 4.2 (95% CI, 1.9 to 9.3; P<0.001) and 2.5 (95% CI, 1.1 to 5.5; P<0.05). Among those who were discordant for EWET and MS-NCEP at baseline, those who had EWET alone (n=21) had a higher annual progression rate of aortic calcification compared with those who had MS-NCEP alone (n=31; P<0.05).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The combined presence of EWET may be the best indicator of cardiovascular risk in postmenopausal women. Other components of the MS-NCEP add little medical value to screening in general practices.
authors.affiliation: Center for Clinical and Basic Research, Ballerup Byvej 222, 2750 Ballerup, Denmark. lbt@ccbr.dk
authors.forename: László B
authors.initials: LB
authors.lastname: Tankó
authors.forename: Yu Z
authors.initials: YZ
authors.lastname: Bagger
authors.forename: Gerong
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Qin
authors.forename: Peter
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Alexandersen
authors.forename: Philip J
authors.initials: PJ
authors.lastname: Larsen
authors.forename: Claus
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Christiansen
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D000704:Analysis of Variance; D001161:Arteriosclerosis / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000209:etiology; D001837:Body Weights and Measures / Q000401:mortality; D002318:Cardiovascular Diseases / Q000401:mortality*; D002423:Cause of Death; D018450:Disease Progression; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D015228:Hypertriglyceridemia / Q000150:complications* / Q000401:mortality; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009765:Obesity / Q000150:complications; D017698:Postmenopause; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D012307:Risk Factors; D012737:Sex Factors; D049629:Waist-Hip Ratio / Q000401:mortality*