title: Accounting for pregnancy diagnosis in predicting days open.
abstract: The system for estimating days open for cows with no subsequent lactation was examined to determine if estimates should vary depending on pregnancy diagnosis. Pregnancy diagnosis information was unavailable when the original prediction system was developed, but collection was begun in 2002. New prediction equations were estimated from nearly 1.1 million Holstein lactations for 20-d intervals from 110 to 250 days in milk (DIM). Use of pregnancy diagnosis improved accuracy compared with the original system. The improvement was particularly evident for lactations of cows confirmed to be open in the 130-to-149 DIM interval, where predicted days open increased by > 96 d. For lactations of cows with a confirmed pregnancy, predicted days open decreased by 18 d for the same interval. Prediction errors decreased with increasing DIM. Jersey lactations averaged fewer days open, but in most cases Holstein solutions provided adequate predictions. Specific adjustments were generated for Jersey lactations with no breedings reported. Those adjustments reduced the predicted days open averaged across parity by an amount that increased from 9 to 27 d with DIM interval. The new prediction equations were implemented for November 2004 evaluations for daughter pregnancy rate.
authors.affiliation: Animal Improvement Programs Laboratory, Agricultural Research Service, USDA, Beltsville, MD 20705-2350, USA. wiggans@aipl.arsusda.gov
authors.forename: G R
authors.initials: GR
authors.lastname: Wiggans
authors.forename: R C
authors.initials: RC
authors.lastname: Goodling
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D001947:Breeding; D002417:Cattle / Q000235:genetics / Q000502:physiology*; D005260:Female; D005298:Fertility; D007774:Lactation; D010298:Parity; D011247:Pregnancy; D011258:Pregnancy Tests / Q000662:veterinary*; D012044:Regression Analysis; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D013997:Time Factors