Predictors of antral follicle count during the reproductive years.
BACKGROUND
We sought to identify indicators of antral follicle count which would be serviceable to clinicians seeking to estimate the number of ovarian follicles without relying on sonographic counts.


METHODS
We examined the relations of chronological age and four potential indicators of ovarian age-ovarian volume, FSH, dimeric inhibin B and estradiol-to antral follicle count in 176 recently pregnant women. We identified the regression models which best predict low antral follicle count (< or =10 follicles).


RESULTS
Chronological age, ovarian volume, FSH and inhibin B were each significantly associated with antral follicle count. Fifty-three (30.1%) women had < or =10 antral follicles. In the total sample, at the cutpoint corresponding to 80% sensitivity, the positive predictive value for a regression model with all four variables was 60%. All regression models performed less well in women <35 years (13.9% with low count) than in women > or =35 years (52.0% with low count). In older women, the positive predictive value for the model with all four variables was 79%, compared with 60% for a model with chronological age alone.


CONCLUSIONS
Our models provide a basis for advising women aged > or =35 years who are either trying to conceive or wish to learn whether they may postpone childbearing.
Kline
J
J
Epidemiology of Developmental Brain Disorders Department, New York State Psychiatric Institute, New York, NY 10032, USA. jkk3@columbia.edu
Kinney
A
A
Kelly
A
A
Reuss
M L
ML
Levin
B
B
D000328:Adult; D000375:Aging / Q000502:physiology*; D015415:Biomarkers; D002452:Cell Count; D004958:Estradiol / Q000097:blood; D005260:Female; D005298:Fertility; D005640:Follicle Stimulating Hormone / Q000097:blood; D006801:Humans; D007265:Inhibins / Q000097:blood; D008423:Maternal Age; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D006080:Ovarian Follicle / Q000166:cytology* / Q000000981:diagnostic imaging; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011247:Pregnancy; D012044:Regression Analysis; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D014463:Ultrasonography
D015415:Biomarkers; C422364:inhibin B; D004958:Estradiol; D007265:Inhibins; D005640:Follicle Stimulating Hormone