title: Earth's energy imbalance: confirmation and implications.
abstract: Our climate model, driven mainly by increasing human-made greenhouse gases and aerosols, among other forcings, calculates that Earth is now absorbing 0.85 +/- 0.15 watts per square meter more energy from the Sun than it is emitting to space. This imbalance is confirmed by precise measurements of increasing ocean heat content over the past 10 years. Implications include (i) the expectation of additional global warming of about 0.6 degrees C without further change of atmospheric composition; (ii) the confirmation of the climate system's lag in responding to forcings, implying the need for anticipatory actions to avoid any specified level of climate change; and (iii) the likelihood of acceleration of ice sheet disintegration and sea level rise.
authors.affiliation: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY 10025, USA. jhansen@giss.nasa.gov
authors.forename: James
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Hansen
authors.forename: Larissa
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Nazarenko
authors.forename: Reto
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Ruedy
authors.forename: Makiko
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Sato
authors.forename: Josh
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Willis
authors.forename: Anthony
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Del Genio
authors.forename: Dorothy
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Koch
authors.forename: Andrew
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Lacis
authors.forename: Ken
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Lo
authors.forename: Surabi
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Menon
authors.forename: Tica
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Novakov
authors.forename: Judith
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Perlwitz
authors.forename: Gary
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Russell
authors.forename: Gavin A
authors.initials: GA
authors.lastname: Schmidt
authors.forename: Nicholas
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Tausnev