A multivariate regression model predicted falls in residents living in intermediate hostel care.
OBJECTIVE
To evaluate whether individual falls risk could be predicted in a frail elderly population.


METHODS
We developed and tested an assessment tool and falls risk score for predicting falls based on a multivariate regression model in a prospective cohort study of intermediate care residents.


RESULTS
During the follow-up period, 1,736 falls by 1,107 subjects were recorded with an average of 170 falls per 100 person-years. Fifty percent of the study population had at least one fall within a year. Significant independent risk factors were poor balance, cognitive impairment, incontinence, higher illness severity rating, and older age. Twenty-two percent of participants with a falls risk score > or =7 accounted for 42% of the total falls, with a falls rate of 317 per 100 person-years. This rate was a sixfold increase from the falls rate of 52 per 100 person-years observed in participants with a score < 3. A high score (> or =7) indicated almost a 2 in 3 chance of falling, while a low score (<3) indicated approximately a 1 in 7 chance of falling within 6 months.


CONCLUSIONS
The assessment tool and falls risk score could identify individuals in this frail elderly population at high risk of falls.
Chen
J S
JS
Institute of Bone & Joint Research, Department of Medicine, Level 4, Block 4, Royal North Shore Hospital, University of Sydney, St Leonards, NSW 2065, Australia. jschen@med.usyd.edu.au
March
L M
LM
Schwarz
J
J
Zochling
J
J
Makaroff
J
J
Sitoh
Y Y
YY
Lau
T C
TC
Lord
S R
SR
Cameron
I D
ID
Cumming
R G
RG
Sambrook
P N
PN
D000058:Accidental Falls / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D003072:Cognition Disorders / Q000150:complications; D004812:Epidemiologic Methods; D005260:Female; D016330:Frail Elderly; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D004856:Postural Balance; D012112:Residential Facilities; D014549:Urinary Incontinence / Q000150:complications