Model uncertainty and risk estimation for experimental studies of quantal responses.
Experimental animal studies often serve as the basis for predicting risk of adverse responses in humans exposed to occupational hazards. A statistical model is applied to exposure-response data and this fitted model may be used to obtain estimates of the exposure associated with a specified level of adverse response. Unfortunately, a number of different statistical models are candidates for fitting the data and may result in wide ranging estimates of risk. Bayesian model averaging (BMA) offers a strategy for addressing uncertainty in the selection of statistical models when generating risk estimates. This strategy is illustrated with two examples: applying the multistage model to cancer responses and a second example where different quantal models are fit to kidney lesion data. BMA provides excess risk estimates or benchmark dose estimates that reflects model uncertainty.
Bailer
A John
AJ
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Miami University, Oxford, OH 45056, USA. bailerj@muohio.edu
Noble
Robert B
RB
Wheeler
Matthew W
MW
D000818:Animals; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D035843:Biomedical Research / Q000379:methods; D003627:Data Interpretation, Statistical; D004195:Disease Models, Animal; D004305:Dose-Response Relationship, Drug; D019855:Ethylene Glycol / Q000009:adverse effects; D006801:Humans; D007684:Kidney Tubules / Q000187:drug effects; D008223:Lymphoma / Q000473:pathology; D051379:Mice; D015233:Models, Statistical; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009369:Neoplasms / Q000473:pathology; D016273:Occupational Exposure; D011336:Probability; D051381:Rats; D012306:Risk; D018570:Risk Assessment
D019855:Ethylene Glycol