title: What percentage of the Cuban HIV-AIDS epidemic is known?
abstract: The data for the Cuban HIV-AIDS epidemic from 1986 to 2000 were presented. With the purpose of evaluating the efficiency of the HIV detection system, two methods were used to estimate the size of the HIV-infected population, backcalculation and a dynamical model. From these models it can be estimated that in the worst scenario 75% of the HIV-infected persons are known and in the best case 87% of the total number of persons that have been infected with HIV have been detected by the National Program. These estimates can be taken as a measure of the efficiency of the detection program for HIV-infected persons.
authors.affiliation: Departamento de Ecuaciones Diferenciales, Facultad de Matematica y Computación, Universidad De La Habana, San Lázaro y L, Cuba. arazoza@matcom.uh.cu
authors.forename: Héctor
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: de Arazoza
authors.forename: Rachid
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Lounes
authors.forename: Jorge
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Pérez
authors.forename: Thu
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Hoang
mesh_terms: D000163:Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology; D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D003462:Cuba / Q000453:epidemiology; D005260:Female; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology*; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical