title: Earth science: microseismicity data forecast rupture area.
abstract: On 28 September 2004 there was an earthquake of magnitude 6.0 at Parkfield, California. Here we show that the size distribution of the micro-earthquakes recorded in the decades before the main shock occurred allowed an accurate forecast of its eventual rupture area. Applying this approach to other well monitored faults should improve earthquake hazard assessment in future.
authors.affiliation: Swiss Seismological Service, ETH Zürich, 8093 Zürich, Switzerland. danijel@sed.ethz.ch
authors.forename: Danijel
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Schorlemmer
authors.forename: Stefan
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Wiemer