title: Predictions of future dangerousness in capital murder trials: is it time to "disinvent the wheel"?
abstract: Although recent U.S. Supreme Court decisions regarding the death penalty (e.g., Atkins v. Virginia, 2002) have renewed interest in mental health issues, one topic that has not received much attention recently is the ongoing use of expert testimony to support claims that defendants represent a "continuing threat to society." In this article, we (a) review prior research relevant to determining the accuracy of clinical predictions that capital defendants will commit future acts of criminal violence; (b) summarize new data from current and former death row inmates in Texas that bolster the claim that such predictions are gross overestimates of risk; and (c) review extant research addressing the potential utility of various risk assessment instruments that increasingly are being used to reinforce clinical predictions in capital trials. Despite significant recent advances in the field of risk assessment, clinical assertions that a defendant is likely to commit future violent acts appear to be highly inaccurate and ethically questionable at best. Moreover, available research offers little support for the claim that the accuracy of these predictions will be appreciably improved by relying on more structured risk assessment measures that have some demonstrated predictive validity in other contexts.
authors.affiliation: Department of Psychology at Sam Houston State University, Texas, USA. jedens@smu.edu
authors.forename: John F
authors.initials: JF
authors.lastname: Edens
authors.forename: Jacqueline K
authors.initials: JK
authors.lastname: Buffington-Vollum
authors.forename: Andrea
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Keilen
authors.forename: Phillip
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Roskamp
authors.forename: Christine
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Anthony
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D002203:Capital Punishment; D003617:Dangerous Behavior; D005104:Expert Testimony; D005260:Female; D005555:Forensic Psychiatry; D006708:Homicide / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence / Q000523:psychology* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011329:Prisoners / Q000523:psychology; D011581:Psychological Tests; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D018570:Risk Assessment; D013781:Texas; D014481:United States