title: Predicting short-term disease progression among HIV-infected patients in Asia and the Pacific region: preliminary results from the TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database (TAHOD).
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  HIV disease progression has been well documented in Western populations. This study aimed to estimate the short-term risk of AIDS and death from the TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database (TAHOD), a prospective, multicentre cohort study in Asia and the Pacific region.
  
  
  METHODS
  Prospective data were analysed to estimate short-term disease progression. Endpoints were defined as the time from study entry to diagnosis with AIDS or death. Antiretroviral treatment was fitted as a time-dependent variable. Predictors of disease progression were assessed using Cox proportional hazards models, and prognostic models were developed using Weibull models.
  
  
  RESULTS
  A total of 1260 patients with prospective follow-up data contributed 477 person-years of follow-up, during which 18 patients died and 34 were diagnosed with AIDS, a combined rate of 10.1 per 100 person-years. Compared with patients receiving antiretroviral treatment, patients not on treatment had a higher rate of disease progression (17.6 vs. 8.1 per 100 person-years, respectively). Baseline CD4 count was the strongest predictor of disease progression. Prognostic models, using either a baseline CD4 count as the sole marker or markers including baseline haemoglobin, AIDS-related symptoms and previous or current antiretroviral treatment, were successful at identifying patients at high risk of short-term disease progression.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Similar to the situation in Western countries, baseline CD4 count was the strongest predictor of short-term disease progression. Prognostic models based on readily available clinical data and haemoglobin level should be useful in estimating short-term clinical risk in HIV-infected patients in Asia and the Pacific region.
authors.affiliation: National Centre in HIV Epidemiology and Clinical Research, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia. jzhou@nchecr.edu.au
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Zhou
authors.forename: N
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Kumarasamy
mesh_terms: D000163:Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome / Q000401:mortality / Q000821:virology; D000328:Adult; D000465:Algorithms; D019380:Anti-HIV Agents / Q000627:therapeutic use; D023241:Antiretroviral Therapy, Highly Active; D001208:Asia; D018791:CD4 Lymphocyte Count; D016208:Databases, Factual; D003906:Developing Countries; D018450:Disease Progression; D005260:Female; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000276:immunology / Q000401:mortality / Q000821:virology*; D015497:HIV-1; D006454:Hemoglobins / Q000032:analysis; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D010139:Pacific Islands; D011379:Prognosis; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D011446:Prospective Studies; D018570:Risk Assessment; D019562:Viral Load
chemical_list: D019380:Anti-HIV Agents; D006454:Hemoglobins