title: Predicting the risk of bluetongue through time: climate models of temporal patterns of outbreaks in Israel.
abstract: Determining the temporal relationship between climate and epidemics of Culicoides-borne viral disease may allow control and surveillance measures to be implemented earlier and more efficiently. In Israel, outbreaks of bluetongue (BT) have occurred almost annually since at least 1950, with severe episodes occurring periodically. In this paper, the authors model a twenty-year time-series of BT outbreaks in relation to climate. Satellite-derived correlates of low temperatures and high moisture levels increased the number of outbreaks per year. This is the first study to find a temporal relationship between the risk of Culicoides-borne disease and satellite-derived climate variables. Climatic conditions in the year preceding a BT episode, between October and December, coincident with the seasonal peak of vector abundance and outbreak numbers, appeared to be more importantthan spring or early summer conditions in the same year as the episode. Since Israel is an arid country, higher-than-average moisture levels during this period may increase the availability of breeding sites and refuges for adult Culicoides imicola vectors, while cooler-than-average temperatures will increase fecundity, offspring size and survival through adulthood in winter, which, in turn, increases the size of the initial vector population the following year. The proportion of variance in the annual BT outbreak time-series resulting from climate factors was relatively low, at around 20%. This was possibly due to temporal variation in other factors, such as viral incursions from surrounding countries and levels of herd immunity. Alternatively, since most BT virus (BTV) circulation in this region occurs silently, in resistant breeds of local sheep, the level of transmission is poorly correlated with outbreak notification so that strong relationships between BTV circulation and climate, if they exist, are obscured.
authors.affiliation: Institute for Animal Health, Pirbright, Surrey, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: B V
authors.initials: BV
authors.lastname: Purse
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Baylis
authors.forename: A J
authors.initials: AJ
authors.lastname: Tatem
authors.forename: D J
authors.initials: DJ
authors.lastname: Rogers
authors.forename: P S
authors.initials: PS
authors.lastname: Mellor
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Van Ham
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Chizov-Ginzburg
authors.forename: Y
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Braverman
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D001819:Bluetongue / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control; D001820:Bluetongue virus / Q000145:classification / Q000254:growth & development*; D002519:Ceratopogonidae / Q000821:virology*; D002980:Climate; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000662:veterinary*; D004199:Disease Vectors; D005260:Female; D015994:Incidence; D007303:Insect Vectors / Q000821:virology*; D007557:Israel / Q000453:epidemiology; D008297:Male; D008954:Models, Biological; D011156:Population Density; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012621:Seasons; D018571:Sentinel Surveillance / Q000662:veterinary; D012756:Sheep; D014611:Vaccination / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000662:veterinary