title: Statistical estimation of the number of breast cancer patients with disabilities resulting from surgery.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  The prolongation of the post-operative life of cancer patients brings new medical demands. The purpose of this paper is to estimate the total number of women patients with breast cancer who will have disability resulting from surgical treatment from 2000 to 2020 in Japan.
  
  
  METHODS
  The estimation was carried out using four indices: the number of cases of women diagnosed with breast cancer, the proportion of surgical operations, the frequency of disability from surgical treatment, and the crude survival rate of the patient group. The crude survival rates of surgically-treated breast cancer patients were estimated by the Weibull model. The frequencies of iatrogenic disabilities were calculated from several reports of complaints of pain in the chest wall or axilla and lymphedema of the arm, and 95% confidence intervals were calculated by the Monte Carlo simulation.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The number of women patients with disability from breast cancer treatment from 2000 to 2020 was estimated to be 42,016 (95% CI: 41,236, 42,796) people in 2000 and 72,514 (95% CI: 71,196, 73,832) people in 2020 for pain in the chest wall or axilla, and 22,486 (95% CI: 22,148, 22,823) people in 2000 and 38,692 (95% CI: 38,094, 39,290) people in 2020 for lymphedema of the arm. Treatment supports required for the disability are medication and social support. Cancer patients with disability after treatment need long-term support in their daily life.
authors.affiliation: Course of Health Science, Graduate School of Medicine, Osaka University, 1-7, Yamadaoka, Suita City, Osaka, 565-0871, Japan. kitamura@sahs.med.osaka-u.ac.jp
authors.forename: Yuko
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Kitamura
authors.forename: Yuko
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Ohno
authors.forename: Satoko
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Kasahara
authors.forename: Kanako
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Murata
authors.forename: Hiromi
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Sugiyama
authors.forename: Akira
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Oshima
authors.forename: Hideaki
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Tsukuma
authors.forename: Wakiko
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Ajiki
authors.forename: Toshihiko
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Hasegawa
mesh_terms: D001943:Breast Neoplasms / Q000401:mortality* / Q000601:surgery*; D006233:Persons with Disabilities / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007564:Japan / Q000453:epidemiology; D008209:Lymphedema / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000209:etiology; D009010:Monte Carlo Method; D010146:Pain / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000209:etiology; D011183:Postoperative Complications; D015996:Survival Rate