title: A multivariate regression model predicted falls in residents living in intermediate hostel care.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To evaluate whether individual falls risk could be predicted in a frail elderly population.
  
  
  METHODS
  We developed and tested an assessment tool and falls risk score for predicting falls based on a multivariate regression model in a prospective cohort study of intermediate care residents.
  
  
  RESULTS
  During the follow-up period, 1,736 falls by 1,107 subjects were recorded with an average of 170 falls per 100 person-years. Fifty percent of the study population had at least one fall within a year. Significant independent risk factors were poor balance, cognitive impairment, incontinence, higher illness severity rating, and older age. Twenty-two percent of participants with a falls risk score > or =7 accounted for 42% of the total falls, with a falls rate of 317 per 100 person-years. This rate was a sixfold increase from the falls rate of 52 per 100 person-years observed in participants with a score < 3. A high score (> or =7) indicated almost a 2 in 3 chance of falling, while a low score (<3) indicated approximately a 1 in 7 chance of falling within 6 months.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The assessment tool and falls risk score could identify individuals in this frail elderly population at high risk of falls.
authors.affiliation: Institute of Bone & Joint Research, Department of Medicine, Level 4, Block 4, Royal North Shore Hospital, University of Sydney, St Leonards, NSW 2065, Australia. jschen@med.usyd.edu.au
authors.forename: J S
authors.initials: JS
authors.lastname: Chen
authors.forename: L M
authors.initials: LM
authors.lastname: March
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Schwarz
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Zochling
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Makaroff
authors.forename: Y Y
authors.initials: YY
authors.lastname: Sitoh
authors.forename: T C
authors.initials: TC
authors.lastname: Lau
authors.forename: S R
authors.initials: SR
authors.lastname: Lord
authors.forename: I D
authors.initials: ID
authors.lastname: Cameron
authors.forename: R G
authors.initials: RG
authors.lastname: Cumming
authors.forename: P N
authors.initials: PN
authors.lastname: Sambrook
mesh_terms: D000058:Accidental Falls / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D003072:Cognition Disorders / Q000150:complications; D004812:Epidemiologic Methods; D005260:Female; D016330:Frail Elderly; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D004856:Postural Balance; D012112:Residential Facilities; D014549:Urinary Incontinence / Q000150:complications