title: Operational performance of validated physiologic scoring systems for predicting in-hospital mortality among critically ill emergency department patients.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  New Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II, Morbidity Probability Model at admission (MPM0 II), and Logistic Organ Dysfunction System (LODS) have all demonstrated high accuracy for predicting mortality in intensive care unit populations. We tested the prognostic accuracy of these instruments for predicting mortality among a cohort of critically ill emergency department patients.
  
  
  METHODS
  Secondary analysis of a randomized controlled trial.
  
  
  METHODS
  Urban, tertiary emergency department, census >100,000.
  
  
  METHODS
  Nontrauma emergency department patients admitted to an intensive care unit, aged >17 yrs, with initial emergency department vital signs consistent with shock (systolic blood pressure <100 mm Hg or shock index >1.0), and with agreement of two independent observers for at least one sign and symptom of inadequate tissue perfusion.
  
  
  METHODS
  Emergency department variables needed for calculation of each scoring system were prospectively collected, and published formulas were used to calculate the probability of in-hospital death for each scoring system. The main outcome was actual in-hospital mortality. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was used to evaluate the predictive ability of each scoring system.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Ninety-one of 202 patients (45%) were included. The mean age was 56 +/- 16 yrs, 42% were female, the mean initial systolic blood pressure was 84 +/- 13 mm Hg, and the average length of stay in the emergency department was 4.2 +/- 2.0 hrs. The in-hospital mortality rate was 21%. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for calculated probability of in-hospital mortality for SAPS II was 0.72 (95% confidence interval, 0.57-0.87), for MPM0 II 0.69 (95% confidence interval, 0.54-0.84), and for LODS 0.60 (95% confidence interval, 0.45-0.76).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Using variables available in the emergency department, three previously validated intensive care unit scoring systems demonstrated moderate accuracy for predicting in-hospital mortality.
authors.affiliation: Department of Emergency Medicine, Carolinas Medical Center, Charlotte, NC, USA.
authors.forename: Alan E
authors.initials: AE
authors.lastname: Jones
authors.forename: Michael T
authors.initials: MT
authors.lastname: Fitch
authors.forename: Jeffrey A
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: Kline
mesh_terms: D018806:APACHE; D019540:Area Under Curve; D004636:Emergency Service, Hospital; D005260:Female; D017052:Hospital Mortality; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012372:ROC Curve; D016032:Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic