title: Increased levels of amino terminal propeptide of type III procollagen are an unfavourable predictor of survival in systemic sclerosis.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Investigation of the impact on survival of inflammatory parameters (C-reactive protein, ESR), markers of immune activation (serum soluble IL-2 receptor, soluble CD30), and N-terminal propeptide of type III procollagen levels (PIIINP) in systemic sclerosis (SSc).
  
  
  METHODS
  In a prospective follow up study, clinical and laboratory data of 80 patients with SSc were evaluated. Kaplan-Meier survival curves and Cox proportional hazards model were used. Eighty cases with SSc were evaluated. Female/male ratio was 8/72. The mean (+/-SD) age was 49.3 (+/-12.3) years, 16 patients died during our mean follow up of 58.1 months.
  
  
  RESULTS
  In the univariate analysis, the presence of a C-reactive protein level above 20 mg/l was an unfavourable prognostic sign (p<0.001). Increased level of PIIINP level also caused an unfavourable outcome of disease (p<0.001). Conversely, increased ESR, soluble IL-2 receptor, soluble CD30 levels, presence of anaemia, did not influence the prognosis. Male gender (p<0.005), diffuse cutaneous SSc, clinically significant lung involvement (p<0.001), kidney (p<0.0001), cardiac (p<0.05) manifestations including pericarditis (p<0.02) were unfavourable prognostic signs by univariate Kaplan-Meier method. Multivariate analysis by Cox proportional hazards model showed that the increased level of PIIINP (RR: 6.98), and presence of diffuse cutaneous SSc (RR: 5.14) were independent unfavourable prognostic signs.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  An increased collagen metabolism unfavourably influences the outcome of SSc. This parameter may also be a potential candidate as a disease activity marker.
authors.affiliation: Department of Immunology and Rheumatology, Medical School, Hungarian Brothers of St John of God and University of Pécs, Pécs, Hungary.
authors.forename: Z
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Nagy
authors.forename: L
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Czirják
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D015415:Biomarkers / Q000097:blood; D002097:C-Reactive Protein / Q000032:analysis; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D006814:Hungary / Q000453:epidemiology; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D010446:Peptide Fragments / Q000097:blood*; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011347:Procollagen / Q000097:blood*; D011379:Prognosis; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012595:Scleroderma, Systemic / Q000097:blood / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000401:mortality; D015996:Survival Rate
chemical_list: D015415:Biomarkers; D010446:Peptide Fragments; D011347:Procollagen; C041876:procollagen Type III-N-terminal peptide; D002097:C-Reactive Protein