title: Modeling the simple epidemic with deterministic differential equations and random initial conditions.
abstract: In a simple epidemic the only transition in the population is from susceptible to infected and the total population size is fixed for all time. This paper investigates the effect of random initial conditions on the deterministic model for the simple epidemic. By assuming a Beta distribution on the initial proportion of susceptibles, we define a distribution that describes the proportion of susceptibles in a population at any time during an epidemic. The mean and variance for this distribution are derived as hypergeometric functions, and the behavior of these functions is investigated. Lastly, we define a distribution to describe the time until a given proportion of the population remains susceptible. A method for finding the quantiles of this distribution is developed and used to make confidence statements regarding the time until a given proportion of the population is susceptible.
authors.affiliation: US Census Bureau Washington, DC 20233, USA. bonnie.e.kegan@census.gov
authors.forename: Bonnie
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Kegan
authors.forename: R Webster
authors.initials: RW
authors.lastname: West
mesh_terms: D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D004812:Epidemiologic Methods; D006678:HIV / Q000276:immunology; D015483:HIV Antibodies / Q000097:blood; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000276:immunology; D006716:Homosexuality; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D015233:Models, Statistical; D013997:Time Factors
chemical_list: D015483:HIV Antibodies