title: Predicting the development of gastric cancer from combining Helicobacter pylori antibodies and serum pepsinogen status: a prospective endoscopic cohort study.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Helicobacter pylori infection and gastric atrophy are both risk factors for gastric cancer. We aimed to elucidate the natural history of gastric cancer development according to H pylori infection and gastric atrophy status.
  
  
  METHODS
  A total of 9293 participants in a mass health appraisal programme were candidates for inclusion in the present prospective cohort study: 6983 subjects revisited the follow up programme. Subjects were classified into four groups according to serological status at initial endoscopy. Group A (n = 3324) had "normal" pepsinogen and were negative for H pylori antibody; group B (n = 2134) had "normal" pepsinogen and were positive for H pylori antibody; group C (n = 1082) had "atrophic" pepsinogen and were positive for H pylori antibody; and group D (n = 443) had "atrophic" pepsinogen and were negative for H pylori antibody. Incidence of gastric cancer was determined by annual endoscopic examination.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Mean duration of follow up was 4.7 years and the average number of endoscopic examinations was 5.1. The annual incidence of gastric cancer was 0.04% (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.02-0.09), 0.06% (0.03-0.13), 0.35% (0.23-0.57), and 0.60% (0.34-1.05) in groups A, B, C, and D, respectively. Hazard ratios compared with group A were 1.1 (95% CI 0.4-3.4), 6.0 (2.4-14.5), and 8.2 (3.2-21.5) in groups B, C, and D, respectively. Age, sex, and "group" significantly served as independent valuables by multivariate analysis.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The combination of serum pepsinogen and anti-H pylori antibody provides a good predictive marker for the development of gastric cancer.
authors.affiliation: Department of Gastroenterology, Graduate School of Medicine, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan. hwatabe-gi@umin.ac.jp
authors.forename: H
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Watabe
authors.forename: T
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Mitsushima
authors.forename: Y
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Yamaji
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Okamoto
authors.forename: R
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Wada
authors.forename: T
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Kokubo
authors.forename: H
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Doi
authors.forename: H
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Yoshida
authors.forename: T
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Kawabe
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Omata
mesh_terms: D000907:Antibodies, Bacterial / Q000097:blood*; D015415:Biomarkers / Q000097:blood; D004812:Epidemiologic Methods; D005260:Female; D005773:Gastroscopy; D016481:Helicobacter Infections / Q000276:immunology*; D016480:Helicobacter pylori / Q000276:immunology*; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D020116:Pepsinogen A / Q000097:blood*; D013274:Stomach Neoplasms / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000209:etiology*
chemical_list: D000907:Antibodies, Bacterial; D015415:Biomarkers; D020116:Pepsinogen A