title: Cancer risk prediction models: a workshop on development, evaluation, and application.
abstract: Cancer researchers, clinicians, and the public are increasingly interested in statistical models designed to predict the occurrence of cancer. As the number and sophistication of cancer risk prediction models have grown, so too has interest in ensuring that they are appropriately applied, correctly developed, and rigorously evaluated. On May 20-21, 2004, the National Cancer Institute sponsored a workshop in which experts identified strengths and limitations of cancer and genetic susceptibility prediction models that were currently in use and under development and explored methodologic issues related to their development, evaluation, and validation. Participants also identified research priorities and resources in the areas of 1) revising existing breast cancer risk assessment models and developing new models, 2) encouraging the development of new risk models, 3) obtaining data to develop more accurate risk models, 4) supporting validation mechanisms and resources, 5) strengthening model development efforts and encouraging coordination, and 6) promoting effective cancer risk communication and decision-making.
authors.affiliation: Division of Cancer Control and Population Sciences, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD 20892-7344, USA. Andrew_Freedman@nih.gov
authors.forename: Andrew N
authors.initials: AN
authors.lastname: Freedman
authors.forename: Daniela
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Seminara
authors.forename: Mitchell H
authors.initials: MH
authors.lastname: Gail
authors.forename: Patricia
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Hartge
authors.forename: Graham A
authors.initials: GA
authors.lastname: Colditz
authors.forename: Rachel
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Ballard-Barbash
authors.forename: Ruth M
authors.initials: RM
authors.lastname: Pfeiffer
mesh_terms: D001943:Breast Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000235:genetics; D003123:Colorectal Neoplasms, Hereditary Nonpolyposis / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000235:genetics; D016001:Confidence Intervals; D003327:Coronary Disease / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000209:etiology; D003362:Cost-Benefit Analysis; D003657:Decision Making; D005069:Evaluation Studies as Topic; D005260:Female; D020022:Genetic Predisposition to Disease; D006801:Humans; D008403:Mass Screening; D015233:Models, Statistical; D009154:Mutation; D009369:Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000209:etiology / Q000517:prevention & control; D010051:Ovarian Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000235:genetics; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods* / Q000639:trends; D012307:Risk Factors