[Lifespan of patients with primary pulmonary hypertension].
OBJECTIVE
To design a mathematical express model of expected lifespan of patients with primary pulmonary hypertension (PPH).


METHODS
A retrospective analysis of 418 case histories of 132 PPH patients (81 females, 51 males, age 16-57 years). Ninety one of them were hospitalized at least twice. The following characteristics of the patients were registered: a PPH form, age at onset, gender, morphological structure of the lung, date of the first visit to doctor. Relationship of these factors with lifespan was analysed and the express formula of expected lifespan was calculated using the multifactorial analysis of variance with standard computer statistical programs.


RESULTS
Lifespan was studied for dependence on static factors free of therapy effects (gender, age, form of PPH). The presence of a factor named "duration of the disease development" (DDD) is suggested. A correlation was found between DDD and lifespan in PPH patients explaining survival by 84.5%. The formula of the prognosis was derived for patients with known morphological structure of the lung in whom the above dependence explains survival by 93.5%.


CONCLUSIONS
Among effect modifiers, of significance for survival are age, PPH form, morphological structure of the lung. An artificial index DDD was used for deriving a formula for prognosis of survival for a newly hospitalized PPH patient.
Chazova
I E
IE
Mironova
N A
NA
D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D006976:Hypertension, Pulmonary / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000401:mortality*; D008017:Life Expectancy; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011379:Prognosis; D012189:Retrospective Studies