title: A model of lineage-1 and lineage-2 rinderpest virus transmission in pastoral areas of East Africa.
abstract: The development of a stochastic, state-transition model of rinderpest transmission dynamics is described using parameter estimates obtained from both laboratory and participatory research. Using serological data, the basic reproduction numbers for lineage-1 rinderpest virus in southern Sudan and for lineage-2 rinderpest virus in Somali livestock were estimated as 4.4 and between 1.2 and 1.9, respectively. The model predictions for the inter-epidemic period in Sudan and Somalia (1.2 and 4.2 years, respectively) were in agreement with analysis of livestock-owner reports (1-2 years and 5 years, respectively).
authors.affiliation: RDP Livestock Services, PO Box 523, 3700 AM Zeist, The Netherlands. jeffreymariner@yahoo.com
authors.forename: J C
authors.initials: JC
authors.lastname: Mariner
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: McDermott
authors.forename: J A P
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: Heesterbeek
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Catley
authors.forename: P
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Roeder
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D000914:Antibodies, Viral / Q000097:blood; D002417:Cattle; D002418:Cattle Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission / Q000821:virology*; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000662:veterinary*; D007114:Immunization / Q000662:veterinary; D008954:Models, Biological; D015995:Prevalence; D012301:Rinderpest / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission* / Q000821:virology; D012302:Rinderpest virus / Q000254:growth & development*; D012424:Rural Population; D012998:Somalia / Q000453:epidemiology; D013269:Stochastic Processes; D013397:Sudan / Q000453:epidemiology
chemical_list: D000914:Antibodies, Viral