title: Risk assessment in offenders with mental disorders: relative efficacy of personal demographic, criminal history, and clinical variables.
abstract: Following the meta-analysis by Bonta, Law, and Hanson, (1998) this study examined the ability of personal demographic, criminal history, and clinical variables to predict reoffending in offenders in the United Kingdom who had mental disorders. The efficacy of each variable in predicting rate of general reoffending and violent reoffending was investigated. Age on admission, number of days hospitalized, and number of previous offenses were the most effective variables in predicting re-offending, with number of previous offenses being the strongest predictor. Clinical diagnosis was not predictive of reoffending when the variance attributable to these other predictors was controlled for. None of the variables were able to discriminate between general offenders and violent offenders indicating that the same variables predict both types of reoffending. The results showed that reconviction in offenders with mental disorders can be predicted using the same criminogenic variables that are predictive in offenders without mental disorders.
authors.affiliation: School of Psychology, Cardiff University & South Wales Forensic Psychiatric Service, Cardiff, UK. PhillipsHK1@cardiff.ac.uk
authors.forename: Helen K
authors.initials: HK
authors.lastname: Phillips
authors.forename: Nicola S
authors.initials: NS
authors.lastname: Gray
authors.forename: Sophie I
authors.initials: SI
authors.lastname: MacCulloch
authors.forename: John
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Taylor
authors.forename: Simon C
authors.initials: SC
authors.lastname: Moore
authors.forename: Phil
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Huckle
authors.forename: Malcolm J
authors.initials: MJ
authors.lastname: MacCulloch
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000704:Analysis of Variance; D005260:Female; D005555:Forensic Psychiatry / Q000379:methods; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D001523:Mental Disorders / Q000150:complications / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000523:psychology; D008875:Middle Aged; D010554:Personality Disorders / Q000453:epidemiology; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods*; D012307:Risk Factors; D055502:Secondary Prevention; D012720:Severity of Illness Index; D012742:Sex Offenses / Q000523:psychology / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006113:United Kingdom