title: Misdirection on the road to Shangri-La.
abstract: Will life expectancy in the United States rise or fall in this century? The implications of either scenario are far reaching. We contend that the rise of childhood obesity in the United States in the past three decades has been so dramatic that it will soon lead to higher than expected death rates at middle ages and a possible decline in life expectancy by midcentury. The most detrimental health and longevity effects will not be seen for decades--a phenomenon that cannot be detected by current methods used to forecast life expectancy or estimate the number of deaths currently attributable to obesity. This scenario contrasts sharply with the views of mathematical demographers who generate forecasts by relying on the assumption that the U.S. pattern of longevity will follow that of other longer lived nations and on the extrapolation of historical trends in life expectancy into the future.
authors.affiliation: Division of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Illinois at Chicago, Chicago, IL 60612, USA. sjayo@uic.edu
authors.forename: S Jay
authors.initials: SJ
authors.lastname: Olshansky
authors.forename: Bruce A
authors.initials: BA
authors.lastname: Carnes
authors.forename: Ronald
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Hershow
authors.forename: Doug
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Passaro
authors.forename: Jennifer
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Layden
authors.forename: Jacob
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Brody
authors.forename: Leonard
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Hayflick
authors.forename: Robert N
authors.initials: RN
authors.lastname: Butler
authors.forename: David S
authors.initials: DS
authors.lastname: Ludwig
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D002648:Child; D002669:Child Welfare; D002675:Child, Preschool; D003924:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D008017:Life Expectancy; D008875:Middle Aged; D009026:Mortality / Q000639:trends*; D009765:Obesity / Q000150:complications*; D012307:Risk Factors; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology