Large-scale comparative analysis of pertussis population dynamics: periodicity, synchrony, and impact of vaccination.
Pertussis is a worldwide infectious disease which persists despite massive vaccination campaigns that have gone on for several decades. To obtain an overall view of pertussis dynamics and the impact of vaccination, the authors performed, using the wavelet method, a comparative analysis of pertussis time series in 12 countries to detect and quantify periodicity and synchrony between them. Results showed a clear 3- to 4-year cycle in all countries, but the main finding was that this periodicity was transient. No global pattern in the effect of vaccination on pertussis dynamics was observed, but some spatial synchrony between countries was detected. This large-scale comparative analysis of pertussis dynamics sheds light on the complexity of the multiple interactions involved in global pertussis spatial dynamic patterns. It suggests a need to perform a global survey of human infectious diseases over the long term, which would permit better assessment of the risk of disease outbreaks in the future.
Broutin
Hélène
H
Research Unit 24, Epidemiology and Prevention, Institute of Research for Development, 911 Avenue Agropolis, BP 64501, 34394 Montpellier Cedex 5, France. broutin@mpl.ird.fr
Guégan
Jean-François
JF
Elguero
Eric
E
Simondon
François
F
Cazelles
Bernard
B
D014943:Global Health; D006801:Humans; D032541:Mass Vaccination / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D010507:Periodicity; D011157:Population Dynamics; D014917:Whooping Cough / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control*