title: Scenario-based simulation of runoff-related pesticide entries into small streams on a landscape level.
abstract: The prediction of runoff-related pesticide entry into surface waters on a landscape level usually requires considerable efforts with regard to input data, time, and personnel. Therefore, the need for an easy to use simulation tool with easily accessible input data, for example from already existing public sources, is obvious. In this paper, we present a simulation tool for the simulation of pesticide entry from arable land into adjacent streams. Our aim was to develop a tool applicable on the landscape level using "real world data" from numerous sites and for the simulation of parameter case studies concerning particular parameters at single sites. We used the ratio of exposure to toxicity (REXTOX) model proposed by the OECD, which had been successfully validated in the study area as part of a previous study and which was extended to calculate pesticide concentrations in adjacent streams. We simulated the pesticide entry on the landscape level at 737 sites in small streams situated in the central lowland of Germany with winter wheat, barley, and sugar beat as the main agricultural crops. A sensitivity analysis indicated that the most significant model parameters were the width of the no-application zone and the degree of plant interception. The simulation was carried out for the 15 most frequently detected substances found in the study area using eight different environmental scenarios, covering variation of the width of the no-application zone, climate, and seasonal scenarios. The highest in-stream concentrations were predicted for a scenario using no (0m) buffer zone in conjunction with increased precipitation. According to the predicted concentrations, the risk for the aquatic communities was estimated based on standard toxicity tests and the application of a safety factor. The simulation results are presented both by means of risk maps for the study area showing the simulated pesticide concentration and the resulting ecological risk for numerous sites under varying scenarios and by case study diagrams with focus on the model behavior under the influence of single parameters. Risk maps confirmed the importance of no-application (buffer) zones for the levels of pesticide input. They also indicated the importance of the existing no-application zones for certain compounds and in some cases the need for a further evaluation of these regulations. The simulation tool was implemented as a standard PC software combining the REXTOX model with a geographical information system and can be used on any current personal computer. All input data was taken from public sources of German authorities. With little effort the tool should be applicable for other areas with similar data quality.
authors.affiliation: Institute for Environmental Sciences, University Koblenz-Landau, Fortstrasse 7, D-76829 Landau, Germany. m.probst@tu-braunschweig.de
authors.forename: Michael
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Probst
authors.forename: Norbert
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Berenzen
authors.forename: Annette
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Lentzen-Godding
authors.forename: Ralf
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Schulz
mesh_terms: D003198:Computer Simulation; D040362:Geographic Information Systems; D005858:Germany; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D010575:Pesticides / Q000032:analysis*; D011891:Rain; D018570:Risk Assessment; D045483:Rivers; D012987:Soil; D014872:Water Movements; D014874:Water Pollutants, Chemical / Q000032:analysis*
chemical_list: D010575:Pesticides; D012987:Soil; D014874:Water Pollutants, Chemical