[Trends in mortality from homicide in Medellín (Colombia): 1975-2003].
OBJECTIVE
To describe and evaluate homicide mortality trends in the city of Medellin, Colombia, between 1975 and 2003.


METHODS
Deaths from homicide between January, 1975 and December, 2003 were studied. With the aid of the SSS1 program, an analysis of temporary series was run using iterative procedures for ARIMA model construction.


RESULTS
The mean monthly homicide mortality rate was 13.2 x 10(5) (minimum 1.94 February 1977 and maximum 38.78 December 1992). A peak was observed in the central period of the series. Several models were studied and an ARIMA (0,1,1)(0,0,1)12 model was selected.


CONCLUSIONS
Marked annual seasonal variation was found in mortality from homicide in the city of Medellín. The highest rates were found in the month of December.
Rodríguez-Gázquez
María de Los Angeles
Mde L
Salud Pública, Universidad de Alicante, Investigación de la Corporación Universitaria Lasallista, 32 A 75 Medellín, Colombia. mrodriguezgazquez@hispavista.com
D003105:Colombia / Q000453:epidemiology; D006708:Homicide / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009026:Mortality / Q000639:trends; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012621:Seasons; D014505:Urban Population