title: The effect of combined estrogen and progesterone hormone replacement therapy on disease activity in systemic lupus erythematosus: a randomized trial.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  There is concern that exogenous female hormones may worsen disease activity in women with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE).
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  To evaluate the effect of hormone replacement therapy (HRT) on disease activity in postmenopausal women with SLE.
  
  
  METHODS
  Randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled noninferiority trial conducted from March 1996 to June 2002.
  
  
  METHODS
  16 university-affiliated rheumatology clinics or practices in 11 U.S. states.
  
  
  METHODS
  351 menopausal patients (mean age, 50 years) with inactive (81.5%) or stable-active (18.5%) SLE.
  
  
  METHODS
  12 months of treatment with active drug (0.625 mg of conjugated estrogen daily, plus 5 mg of medroxyprogesterone for 12 days per month) or placebo. The 12-month follow-up rate was 82% for the HRT group and 87% for the placebo group.
  
  
  METHODS
  The primary end point was occurrence of a severe flare as defined by Safety of Estrogens in Lupus Erythematosus, National Assessment-Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index composite.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Severe flare was rare in both treatment groups: The 12-month severe flare rate was 0.081 for the HRT group and 0.049 for the placebo group, yielding an estimated difference of 0.033 (P = 0.23). The upper limit of the 1-sided 95% CI for the treatment difference was 0.078, within the prespecified margin of 9% for noninferiority. Mild to moderate flares were significantly increased in the HRT group: 1.14 flares/person-year for HRT and 0.86 flare/person-year for placebo (relative risk, 1.34; P = 0.01). The probability of any type of flare by 12 months was 0.64 for the HRT group and 0.51 for the placebo group (P = 0.01). In the HRT group, there were 1 death, 1 stroke, 2 cases of deep venous thrombosis, and 1 case of thrombosis in an arteriovenous graft; in the placebo group, 1 patient developed deep venous thrombosis.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Findings are not generalizable to women with high-titer anticardiolipin antibodies, lupus anticoagulant, or previous thrombosis.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Adding a short course of HRT is associated with a small risk for increasing the natural flare rate of lupus. Most of these flares are mild to moderate. The benefits of HRT can be balanced against the risk for flare because HRT did not significantly increase the risk for severe flare compared with placebo.
authors.affiliation: Hospital for Joint Diseases, New York University School of Medicine, New York, New York, USA. jill.buyon@nyumc.org
authors.forename: Jill P
authors.initials: JP
authors.lastname: Buyon
authors.forename: Michelle A
authors.initials: MA
authors.lastname: Petri
authors.forename: Mimi Y
authors.initials: MY
authors.lastname: Kim
authors.forename: Kenneth C
authors.initials: KC
authors.lastname: Kalunian
authors.forename: Jennifer
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Grossman
authors.forename: Bevra H
authors.initials: BH
authors.lastname: Hahn
authors.forename: Joan T
authors.initials: JT
authors.lastname: Merrill
authors.forename: Lisa
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Sammaritano
authors.forename: Michael
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Lockshin
authors.forename: Graciela S
authors.initials: GS
authors.lastname: Alarcón
authors.forename: Susan
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Manzi
authors.forename: H Michael
authors.initials: HM
authors.lastname: Belmont
authors.forename: Anca D
authors.initials: AD
authors.lastname: Askanase
authors.forename: Lisa
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Sigler
authors.forename: Mary Anne
authors.initials: MA
authors.lastname: Dooley
authors.forename: Joan
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Von Feldt
authors.forename: W Joseph
authors.initials: WJ
authors.lastname: McCune
authors.forename: Alan
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Friedman
authors.forename: Jane
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Wachs
authors.forename: Mary
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Cronin
authors.forename: Michelene
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Hearth-Holmes
authors.forename: Mark
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Tan
authors.forename: Frederick
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Licciardi
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D004311:Double-Blind Method; D015914:Estrogen Replacement Therapy / Q000009:adverse effects*; D004966:Estrogens, Conjugated (USP) / Q000627:therapeutic use; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D008180:Lupus Erythematosus, Systemic / Q000503:physiopathology*; D008525:Medroxyprogesterone / Q000627:therapeutic use; D008875:Middle Aged; D017698:Postmenopause; D012307:Risk Factors
chemical_list: D004966:Estrogens, Conjugated (USP); D008525:Medroxyprogesterone