title: Do seniors understand their risk of moving to a nursing home?
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To determine whether seniors understand their risk of moving to a nursing home. Data Sources. We used longitudinal data from the Asset and Health Dynamics Among the Oldest Old (AHEAD) database. AHEAD is a nationally representative survey (n=8,203) of community dwellers aged 70+ years and their spouses.
  
  
  METHODS
  We followed respondents for 5 years from the date of the first interview fielded in 1993. Our primary dependent variable was whether respondents moved to a nursing home within 5 years of baseline; self-assessed probability of moving to a nursing home within 5 years, also assessed at baseline, was the primary explanatory variable.
  
  
  RESULTS
  We found that seniors who believed they were more likely to move to a nursing home within 5 years were indeed more likely to do so, and that most elders overestimated their likelihood of moving to a nursing home.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Low rates of private long-term care insurance are not plausibly a result of seniors underestimating their personal risk of moving to a nursing home; such an assumption is inherent in many strategies to plan for the future long-term care needs of the baby boom generation.
authors.affiliation: Center for Health Policy, Law and Management, 125 Old Chemistry Building, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708, USA.
authors.forename: Donald H
authors.initials: DH
authors.lastname: Taylor
authors.forename: Jan
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Osterman
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Will Acuff
authors.forename: Truls
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Ostbye
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged / Q000523:psychology*; D000369:Aged, 80 and over / Q000523:psychology; D001294:Attitude to Health; D032882:Comprehension; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007326:Institutionalization; D007353:Insurance, Long-Term Care; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D008297:Male; D009735:Nursing Homes / Q000191:economics / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D011336:Probability; D012306:Risk; D018454:Spouses / Q000523:psychology; D014481:United States