title: Comparing logistic models based on modified GCS motor component with other prognostic tools in prediction of mortality: results of study in 7226 trauma patients.
abstract: A simple reproducible and sensitive prognostic trauma tool is still needed. In this article we have introduced modified GCS motor response (MGMR) and evaluated the performance of logistic models based on this variable. The records of 8452 trauma patients admitted to major hospitals of Tehran from 1999 to 2000 were analysed. 7226 records with known outcome were included in our study. Logistic models based on outcome (death versus survival) as a dependent variable and Injury Severity Score (ISS), Revised Trauma Score (RTS), Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), GCS motor component (GMR) and MGMR (following command [=2], movement but not following [=1] command and without movement [=0]) were compared based on their accuracy and area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve. The accuracy of the Trauma and Injury Severity Score (TRISS), RTS, GCS, GMR and MGMR models were almost the same. Considering both the area under the ROC curve and accuracy, the age included MGMR model was also comparable with other age included models (RTS+age, GCS+age, GMR+age). We concluded that although in some situations we need more sophisticated models, should our results be reproducible in other populations, MGMR (with or without age added) model may be of considerable practical value.
authors.affiliation: Department of Neurosurgery and Surgery, Sina Trauma Research Center, Sina Hospital, Tehran University, Iran. Eftekhar@sina.tums.ac.ir
authors.forename: Behzad
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Eftekhar
authors.forename: Mohammad Reza
authors.initials: MR
authors.lastname: Zarei
authors.forename: Mohammad
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Ghodsi
authors.forename: Koorosh
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Moezardalan
authors.forename: Moosa
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Zargar
authors.forename: Ebrahim
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Ketabchi
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D002648:Child; D005069:Evaluation Studies as Topic; D005260:Female; D017052:Hospital Mortality; D006801:Humans; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D009104:Multiple Trauma / Q000401:mortality*; D017063:Outcome Assessment, Health Care; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011446:Prospective Studies; D015599:Trauma Severity Indices