title: The incidence of varicella and herpes zoster in Massachusetts as measured by the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) during a period of increasing varicella vaccine coverage, 1998-2003.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  The authors sought to monitor the impact of widespread varicella vaccination on the epidemiology of varicella and herpes zoster. While varicella incidence would be expected to decrease, mathematical models predict an initial increase in herpes zoster incidence if re-exposure to varicella protects against reactivation of the varicella zoster virus.
  
  
  METHODS
  In 1998-2003, as varicella vaccine uptake increased, incidence of varicella and herpes zoster in Massachusetts was monitored using the random-digit-dial Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Between 1998 and 2003, varicella incidence declined from 16.5/1,000 to 3.5/1,000 (79%) overall with > or = 66% decreases for all age groups except adults (27% decrease). Age-standardized estimates of overall herpes zoster occurrence increased from 2.77/1,000 to 5.25/1,000 (90%) in the period 1999-2003, and the trend in both crude and adjusted rates was highly significant (p < 0.001). Annual age-specific rates were somewhat unstable, but all increased, and the trend was significant for the 25-44 year and 65+ year age groups.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  As varicella vaccine coverage in children increased, the incidence of varicella decreased and the occurrence of herpes zoster increased. If the observed increase in herpes zoster incidence is real, widespread vaccination of children is only one of several possible explanations. Further studies are needed to understand secular trends in herpes zoster before and after use of varicella vaccine in the United States and other countries.
authors.affiliation: Department of Ambulatory Care and Prevention, Harvard Medical School and Harvard Pilgrim Health Care, Boston, USA. katherine_yih@harvardpilgrim.org
authors.forename: W Katherine
authors.initials: WK
authors.lastname: Yih
authors.forename: Daniel R
authors.initials: DR
authors.lastname: Brooks
authors.forename: Susan M
authors.initials: SM
authors.lastname: Lett
authors.forename: Aisha O
authors.initials: AO
authors.lastname: Jumaan
authors.forename: Zi
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Zhang
authors.forename: Karen M
authors.initials: KM
authors.lastname: Clements
authors.forename: Jane F
authors.initials: JF
authors.lastname: Seward
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D017677:Age Distribution; D000368:Aged; D040343:Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System; D002644:Chickenpox / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control; D019433:Chickenpox Vaccine / Q000008:administration & dosage* / Q000600:supply & distribution; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D006562:Herpes Zoster / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control; D006801:Humans; D017589:Immunization Programs; D015994:Incidence; D007223:Infant; D008404:Massachusetts / Q000453:epidemiology; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D012189:Retrospective Studies
chemical_list: D019433:Chickenpox Vaccine