[To develop a model on severe acute respiratory syndrome epidemics to quantitatively evaluate the effectiveness of intervention measures].
OBJECTIVE
To build an epidemic model of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) to be used to quantitatively evaluate the effectiveness of intervention measures.


METHODS
Following the nature of SARS epidemics, an epidemic model of SARS based on SEIR model of infectious disease was built, in which case management group was set up and some parameters related to control measures were included. As an example, data gathered from Beijing was fitted to illustrate its application to quantitatively evaluate the intervention measures.


RESULTS
In the newly developed model of epidemics, parameters related to control measures could easily be modified. When scenario assumption was used, a model on SARS outbreak under various circumstances of intervention measures could be set. Thus, quantitative evaluation of intervention measures could perfectly be caried out. Pilot study revealed that the fitness existed in modeling the outbreak of SARS in Beijing and the intervention measures implemented around April 20, 2003, had major contribution to the control of SARS.


CONCLUSIONS
The model of SARS epidemics seemed to be stable and reliable to be used to evaluate the effectiveness of intervention measures implemented during the SARS outbreak in a quantitative way.
Cai
Quan-cai
QC
Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China.
Jiang
Qing-wu
QW
Xu
Qin-feng
QF
Cheng
Xiang
X
Guo
Qiang
Q
Sun
Qing-wen
QW
Zhao
Gen-ming
GM
D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D004812:Epidemiologic Methods; D006801:Humans; D008954:Models, Biological; D015233:Models, Statistical; D045169:Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000628:therapy / Q000635:transmission