Different epidemic potentials of the HIV-1B and C subtypes.
HIV, the cause of AIDS in humans, is characterized by great genetic heterogeneity. In particular, HIV-1 group M subtypes are responsible for most of the infections worldwide. We investigate the demographic history of HIV-1B and HIV-1C subtypes in South Africa and Brazil using both a parametric and a nonparametric approach based on coalescent theory. Our results show that although both subtypes are spreading exponentially in Brazil, the HIV-1C growth rate is about twice that of Brazilian HIV-1B or South African HIV-1C, providing evidence, for the first time, of a different epidemic potential between two HIV-1 subtypes. The present study not only may have important consequences for devising future vaccination and therapeutic strategies, but also offers additional evidence that skyline plots are indeed a simple and powerful tool for monitoring and predicting the behavior of viral epidemics.
Salemi
Marco
M
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California at Irvine, 92664, USA. msalemi68@yahoo.com
de Oliveira
Tulio
T
Soares
Marcelo A
MA
Pybus
Oliver
O
Dumans
Ana T
AT
Vandamme
Anne-Mieke
AM
Tanuri
Amilcar
A
Cassol
Sharon
S
Fitch
Walter M
WM
D000163:Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000235:genetics; D003710:Demography; D019143:Evolution, Molecular; D014644:Genetic Variation; D015497:HIV-1 / Q000235:genetics*; D006801:Humans; D016013:Likelihood Functions; D008954:Models, Biological; D008957:Models, Genetic; D010802:Phylogeny; D011157:Population Dynamics; D013019:South Africa / Q000453:epidemiology; D013020:South America / Q000453:epidemiology; D013045:Species Specificity