Scaling and memory in volatility return intervals in financial markets.
For both stock and currency markets, we study the return intervals tau between the daily volatilities of the price changes that are above a certain threshold q. We find that the distribution function Pq(tau) scales with the mean return interval tau as Pq(tau)=tau(-1)f(tau/tau). The scaling function fx is similar in form for all seven stocks and for all seven currency databases analyzed, and fx is consistent with a power-law form, fx approximately x(-gamma) with gamma approximately 2. We also quantify how the conditional distribution Pq(tau/tau0) depends on the previous return interval tau0 and find that small (or large) return intervals are more likely to be followed by small (or large) return intervals. This "clustering" of the volatility return intervals is a previously unrecognized phenomenon that we relate to the long-term correlations known to be present in the volatility.
Center for Polymer Studies and Department of Physics, Boston University, Boston, MA 02215, USA.
Kazuko
K
Yamasaki
Lev
L
Muchnik
Shlomo
S
Havlin
Armin
A
Bunde
H Eugene
HE
Stanley