Mathematical program for outcome prediction and therapeutic support for trauma beginning within 1 hr of admission: a preliminary report.
OBJECTIVE
The aims were a) to noninvasively monitor acute emergency trauma patients beginning within 1 hr after admission to the emergency department; b) to prospectively predict outcome; and c) to evaluate the relative effectiveness of various modes of therapy.


METHODS
Prospective outcome prediction study using a mathematical search and display model based on noninvasive hemodynamic monitoring.


METHODS
A level I trauma service in a large university-run inner-city public hospital.


METHODS
We studied 185 consecutively noninvasively monitored emergency patients.


METHODS
We noninvasively monitored cardiac index, mean arterial blood pressure, heart rate, pulse oximetry, and transcutaneous oxygen and carbon dioxide tensions beginning within 1-hr after emergency admission.


RESULTS
The cardiac index, pulse oximetry, transcutaneous oxygen tension, transcutaneous carbon dioxide tension, and mean arterial blood pressure were higher in survivors than in nonsurvivors in the initial resuscitation period and at the hemodynamic nadir. Heart rate and transcutaneous carbon dioxide tension were higher in the nonsurvivors. The calculated survival probability in the first hour observation period of survivors averaged 85 +/- 14% vs. 69 +/- 16% for nonsurvivors (p = .0001). Misclassifications of the series as a whole were 11.3%; after excluding brain death from severe head injury, there were 6.4% misclassifications. A decision support system evaluated the effects of various therapies based on responses of patients with similar clinical-hemodynamic states.


CONCLUSIONS
Noninvasive hemodynamic monitoring and an information system provided a feasible approach to predict outcome early and to evaluate prospectively the efficacy of various therapies.
Laboratory of Applied Pharmacokinetics, LAC+USC Medical Center, Keck School of Medicine, University of Southern California, Los Angeles CA, USA.
William C
WC
Shoemaker
David S
DS
Bayard
Andreas
A
Botnen
Charles C J
CC
Wo
Ashutosh
A
Gandhi
Li-Chien
LC
Chien
Kevin
K
Lu
Matthew J
MJ
Martin
Linda S
LS
Chan
Demetrios
D
Demetriades
Nasrollah
N
Ahmadpour
Roger W
RW
Jelliffe
D000328:Adult; D016638:Critical Illness; D020000:Decision Support Systems, Clinical; D005260:Female; D006439:Hemodynamics; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D008991:Monitoring, Physiologic / Q000379:methods*; D011336:Probability; D011379:Prognosis; D012372:ROC Curve; D012151:Resuscitation; D014193:Trauma Centers; D015599:Trauma Severity Indices; D014947:Wounds and Injuries / Q000145:classification / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000628:therapy*