Baby boomer doctors and nurses: demographic change and transitions to retirement.
OBJECTIVE
To examine the effect of demographic change on employment patterns for general practitioners, medical specialists and nurses since 1986, and to compare their patterns of retirement.


METHODS
Secondary analysis of previously unpublished Australian Bureau of Statistics Census data for the years 1986, 1991, 1996 and 2001.


METHODS
Age distribution of GPs, specialists and nursing workforce; attrition rates as GPs, specialists and nurses left the workforce; and hours worked according to age group.


RESULTS
The age profile of the GP, specialist and nursing workforce has aged since 1986 (P < 0.001), with the "baby boomer" generation making up more than half the workforce in 2001. A large proportion of GPs continued to work beyond the traditional retirement age of 65 years, with nurses retiring at a younger age than doctors (P < 0.001). All GP cohorts worked fewer hours in 2001 than they did in 1986 (P < 0.001), with "generation X" GPs working fewer hours than the baby boomers did at the same age (P < 0.001).


CONCLUSIONS
Attrition of baby boomer clinicians will place unprecedented pressure on the medical workforce, and policy makers face a critical challenge to ensure workforce needs are met over the next 20 years. Policies and incentives to encourage ongoing employment among older clinicians, albeit at reduced hours, are crucial if the Australian health workforce is to be adequate to meet the growing community demand of the 21st century.
Schofield
Deborah J
DJ
Northern Rivers University Department of Rural Health, University of Sydney, PO Box 3074, Lismore, NSW 2480. deborahsch@nrahs.nsw.gov.au
Beard
John R
JR
D000328:Adult; D017677:Age Distribution; D000368:Aged; D001315:Australia; D015331:Cohort Studies; D005194:Family Practice / Q000639:trends; D005260:Female; D019538:Health Care Surveys; D006280:Health Workforce; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008511:Medicine / Q000639:trends; D008875:Middle Aged; D009729:Nursing / Q000639:trends; D010561:Personnel Staffing and Scheduling / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000639:trends; D011158:Population Growth; D012179:Retirement / Q000706:statistics & numerical data* / Q000639:trends; D017678:Sex Distribution; D013038:Specialization