Rapid awareness and transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome in Hanoi French Hospital, Vietnam.
A case-control study was conducted to examine the relationship between severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and the time-dependent precautionary behaviors taken during an outbreak of SARS in Hanoi French Hospital (HFH), Vietnam. Masks (odds ratio [OR] = 0.3; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.1, 0.7) and gowns (OR = 0.2; 95% CI: 0.0, 0.8) appeared to prevent SARS transmission. The proportion of doctors and nurses who undertook each measure significantly improved (chi(2) = 9.8551, P = 0.043) after the onset of secondary cases. The impact of individual behaviors on an outbreak was investigated through mathematical approaches. The reproduction number decreased from 4.1 to 0.7 after notification. The basic reproduction number was estimated, and the use of masks alone was shown to be insufficient in containing an epidemic. Intuitive results obtained by means of stochastic individual-based simulations showed that rapid improvements in behavior and isolation would increase the probability of extinction.
Nishiura
Hiroshi
H
The Research Institute of Tuberculosis, Japan Anti-Tuberculosis Association, Tokyo, Japan.
Kuratsuji
Tadatoshi
T
Quy
Tran
T
Phi
Nguyen Chi
NC
Van Ban
Vo
V
Ha
L E Dang
LE
Long
Hoang Thuy
HT
Yanai
Hideki
H
Keicho
Naoto
N
Kirikae
Teruo
T
Sasazuki
Takehiko
T
Anderson
Roy M
RM
D000704:Analysis of Variance; D016022:Case-Control Studies; D003020:Clothing; D003428:Cross Infection / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000635:transmission / Q000821:virology*; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D006235:Hand Disinfection; D006801:Humans; D006920:Hygiene; D015233:Models, Statistical; D045473:Severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus; D045169:Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control* / Q000635:transmission*; D014744:Vietnam / Q000453:epidemiology