title: Pragmatic application of a clinical prediction rule in primary care to identify patients with low back pain with a good prognosis following a brief spinal manipulation intervention.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Patients with low back pain are frequently encountered in primary care. Although a specific diagnosis cannot be made for most patients, it is likely that sub-groups exist within the larger entity of nonspecific low back pain. One sub-group that has been identified is patients who respond rapidly to spinal manipulation. The purpose of this study was to examine the association between two factors (duration and distribution of symptoms) and prognosis following a spinal manipulation intervention.
  
  
  METHODS
  Data were taken from two previously published studies. Patients with low back pain underwent a standardized examination, including assessment of duration of the current symptoms in days, and the distal-most distribution of symptoms. Based on prior research, patients with symptoms of <16 days duration and no symptoms distal to the knee were considered to have a good prognosis following manipulation. All patients underwent up to two sessions of spinal manipulation treatment and a range of motion exercise. Oswestry disability scores were recorded before and after treatment. If >or= 50% improvement on the Oswestry was achieved, the intervention was considered a success. Sensitivity, specificity, and positive likelihood ratio were calculated for the association of the two criteria with the outcome of the treatment.
  
  
  RESULTS
  141 patients (49% female, mean age = 35.5 (+/- 11.1) years) participated. Mean pre- and post-treatment Oswestry scores were 41.9 (+/- 10.9) and 24.1 (+/- 14.2) respectively. Sixty-three subjects (45%) had successful treatment outcomes. The sensitivity of the two criteria was 0.56 (95% CI: 0.43, 0.67), specificity was 0.92 (95% CI: 0.84, 0.96), and the positive likelihood ratio was 7.2 (95% CI: 3.2, 16.1).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The results of this study demonstrate that two factors; symptom duration of less than 16 days, and no symptoms extending distal to the knee, were associated with a good outcome with spinal manipulation.
authors: Division of Physical Therapy, University of Utah, 520 Wakara Way, Salt Lake City, UT 84108, USA. julie.fritz@hsc.utah.edu
authors: Julie M
authors: JM
authors: Fritz
authors: John D
authors: JD
authors: Childs
authors: Timothy W
authors: TW
authors: Flynn
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007717:Knee / Q000503:physiopathology; D017116:Low Back Pain / Q000503:physiopathology* / Q000534:rehabilitation*; D008297:Male; D020393:Manipulation, Spinal / Q000379:methods*; D008875:Middle Aged; D015588:Observer Variation; D010147:Pain Measurement / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D011320:Primary Health Care / Q000379:methods*; D011379:Prognosis; D016059:Range of Motion, Articular / Q000502:physiology; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D011795:Surveys and Questionnaires; D013997:Time Factors; D016896:Treatment Outcome