Individual cyclists' probability distributions of severe/fatal crashes in large French urban areas.
The present article deals with individual cyclists' probabilities of severe injury or death from a bicycle accident. We use an empirical Bayesian method to conduct an analysis of the fatal/severe probability distribution of a bicycle accident, at the level of individuals, in dense French urban areas. Among intuitive results, it is found that wearing a helmet lowers the average probability of such a crash; it is also shown that young bicyclists are, on average, more exposed to severe and/or fatal crashes. Finally, the results highlight a decrease of attention paid by all types of road users following road infrastructure improvements in favor of cyclists.
de Lapparent
Matthieu
M
Institut National de la Recherche sur les Transports et leur Sécurité, Département Economie et Sociologie des Transports, Arcueil, France. lapparent@inrets.fr
D000063:Accidents, Traffic / Q000145:classification / Q000401:mortality / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D000293:Adolescent; D000465:Algorithms; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D001642:Bicycling / Q000293:injuries* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D004779:Environment Design; D005602:France / Q000453:epidemiology; D006260:Head Protective Devices / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D006801:Humans; D015233:Models, Statistical; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012449:Safety; D013997:Time Factors; D014505:Urban Population