title: Predictors of functional decline in elderly people with vascular risk factors or disease.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  to determine contributors to decline in functional capacity in elderly patients with known vascular risk factors or disease.
  
  
  METHODS
  secondary analysis of longitudinal data gathered over an average 3.2 years of follow-up.
  
  
  METHODS
  5,804 community-dwelling subjects aged 70-82 years with a history of, or risk factors for, ischaemic vascular disease.
  
  
  METHODS
  basic activities of daily living were measured serially through the study using the 20-point Barthel index and extended activities using a 14-point Instrumental Activities of Daily Living (IADL).
  
  
  RESULTS
  over the period of study 896/5,661 (16%) subjects had deterioration in Barthel (mean reduction 0.35, SD 1.76) and 1,270/5,662 (22%) had a reduction in IADL score (mean 0.63, SD 2.15). Independent risk factors at baseline for a reduction in Barthel and IADL were age, female gender and diabetes mellitus. A history of vascular disease and smoking were also significant predictors of reduction in IADL. The development of a new cerebrovascular event was associated with a greatly increased risk of reduction in the Barthel and IADL score (multivariate OR 3.71 (95% CI 2.94, 4.69) and 3.71 (95% CI 2.96, 4.66), respectively). A similar pattern was seen for non-fatal myocardial infarction. Incident cerebrovascular events and non-fatal myocardial infarction accounted for 31 and 11%, respectively, of the population decline in Barthel, and 24 and 10% of the decline in IADL.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  incident vascular events were important contributors to functional decline in this population, accounting for almost half of the observed deterioration in basic activities of daily living and approximately one-third of the reduction in IADL. Prevention of ischaemic vascular events over the short to medium term should reduce the burden of disability in high-risk older subjects.
authors: Department of Gerontology and Geriatrics, C2-R Leiden University Medical Centre, PO Box 9600, 2300 RC Leiden, The Netherlands. a.m.kamper@lumc.nl
authors: Adriaan M
authors: AM
authors: Kamper
authors: David J
authors: DJ
authors: Stott
authors: Michael
authors: M
authors: Hyland
authors: Heather M
authors: HM
authors: Murray
authors: Ian
authors: I
authors: Ford
mesh_terms: D000203:Activities of Daily Living; D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D048909:Diabetes Complications; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D007511:Ischemia; D008297:Male; D012307:Risk Factors; D012737:Sex Factors; D012907:Smoking / Q000009:adverse effects; D014652:Vascular Diseases / Q000209:etiology* / Q000503:physiopathology*