title: The cost-effectiveness of biomarkers for predicting the development of oesophageal adenocarcinoma.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  The recommended surveillance strategy for oesophageal adenocarcinoma may prevent as few as 50% of cancer deaths. Tissue biomarkers have been proposed to identify high-risk patients.
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  To determine performance characteristics of an ideal biomarker, or panel of biomarkers, that would make its use more cost-effective than the current surveillance strategy.
  
  
  METHODS
  We created a Markov model using data from published literature, and performed a cost-utility analysis. The population consisted of 50-year-old Caucasian men with gastro-oesophageal reflux, who were monitored until age 80. We examined strategies of observation only, current practice (dysplasia-guided surveillance), surveillance every 3 months for patients with a positive biomarker (biomarker-guided surveillance), and oesophagectomy immediately for a positive biomarker (biomarker-guided oesophagectomy). The primary outcome was the threshold cost and performance characteristics needed for a biomarker to be more cost-effective than current practice.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Regardless of the cost, the biomarker needs to be at least 95% specific for biomarker-guided oesophagectomy to be cost-effective. For biomarker-guided surveillance to be cost-effective, a $100 biomarker could be 80% sensitive and specific.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Biomarkers predicting the development of oesophageal adenocarcinoma would need to be fairly accurate and inexpensive to be cost-effective. These results should guide the development of biomarkers for oesophageal adenocarcinoma.
authors: University of Michigan Health System, Ann Arbor, MI, USA. jhr@umich.edu
authors: J H
authors: JH
authors: Rubenstein
authors: N
authors: N
authors: Vakil
authors: J M
authors: JM
authors: Inadomi
mesh_terms: D000230:Adenocarcinoma / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000191:economics; D015415:Biomarkers / Q000097:blood*; D003362:Cost-Benefit Analysis; D004938:Esophageal Neoplasms / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000191:economics; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008390:Markov Chains; D008875:Middle Aged; D019057:Quality-Adjusted Life Years; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity
chemical_list: D015415:Biomarkers