title: A dynamic model of poliomyelitis outbreaks: learning from the past to help inform the future.
abstract: Policy-makers now face important questions regarding the tradeoffs among different strategies for managing poliomyelitis risks after they succeed with polio eradication. To estimate the potential consequences of reintroductions of polioviruses and the resulting outbreaks, the authors developed a dynamic disease transmission model that can simulate many aspects of outbreaks for different posteradication conditions. In this paper, the authors identify the issues related to prospective modeling of future outbreaks using such a model, including the reality that accurate prediction of conditions and associated model inputs prior to future outbreaks remains challenging. The authors explored the model's behavior in the context of three recent outbreaks resulting from importation of poliovirus into previously polio-free countries and found that the model reproduced reported data on the incidence of cases. The authors expect that this model can provide important insights into the dynamics of future potential poliomyelitis outbreaks and in this way serve as a useful tool for risk assessment.
authors: KidsRisk Project, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02115, USA.
authors: Radboud J
authors: RJ
authors: Duintjer Tebbens
authors: Mark A
authors: MA
authors: Pallansch
authors: Olen M
authors: OM
authors: Kew
authors: Victor M
authors: VM
authors: Cáceres
authors: Roland W
authors: RW
authors: Sutter
authors: Kimberly M
authors: KM
authors: Thompson
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000517:prevention & control*; D004293:Dominican Republic / Q000453:epidemiology; D005060:Europe / Q000453:epidemiology; D006801:Humans; D017589:Immunization Programs; D015994:Incidence; D007223:Infant; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011051:Poliomyelitis / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000635:transmission; D023321:Poliovirus Vaccines / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D018570:Risk Assessment
chemical_list: D023321:Poliovirus Vaccines