Empirical Bayes and adjusted estimates approach to estimating the relation of mortality to exposure of PM(10).
In the framework of the APHEIS program (Air Pollution and Health: A European Information System), a health impact assessment of air pollution in 26 European cities was performed for particles of an aerodynamic diameter less than or equal to 10 microns (PM(10)). For short-term effects, it was based on overall estimates from the APHEA-2 project (Air Pollution and Health: A European Approach). These city-specific risk assessments require city-specific concentration-response functions, raising the question of which concentration-response is most appropriate. Estimates from city-specific models are more specific, but have greater uncertainty than those provided from multicity analyses. We compared several estimates derived from the city-specific analyses in cities that were part of the APHEA-2 project, as well as in a city that was not included in APHEA-2 but was part of the APHEIS project. These estimates were: the estimates from a local regression model, the adjusted estimates based on two significant effect modifiers identified through meta-regression models, and the city-specific empirical Bayes (shrunken) estimates and their underlying distribution. The shrunken and adjusted estimates were used to improve the estimation of city-specific concentration-response function. From these different estimates, attributable numbers of deaths per year were calculated. The advantages and limits of the different approaches are discussed through real data and in a simulation study.
Le Tertre
Alain
A
InVS, Environmental Health Unit, Saint-Maurice Cedex, France. a.letertre@invs.sante.fr
Schwartz
Joel
J
Touloumi
Giota
G
D000393:Air Pollutants / Q000032:analysis / Q000633:toxicity*; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D004781:Environmental Exposure; D004782:Environmental Health; D005060:Europe; D006801:Humans; D015233:Models, Statistical; D010316:Particle Size; D018570:Risk Assessment
D000393:Air Pollutants