Modelling the spread of penicillin-resistant Streptococcus pneumoniae in day-care and evaluation of intervention.
In 1995, a disease control and intervention project was initiated in Malmöhus county in southern Sweden to limit the spread of penicillin-resistant pneumococci. Since most of the carriers of pneumococci are preschool children, and since most of the spread is believed to take place in day-care, a mathematical model, in the form of a stochastic process, for the spread in a day-care group was constructed. Effects of seasonal variation and size of the day-care group were particularly considered. The model was then used for comparing results from computer simulations without and with intervention. Results indicate that intervention is highly effective in day-care groups with more than ten children during the second half of the year.
Andersson
Mikael
M
Swedish Institute for Infectious Disease Control, Karolinska Institute, Sweden. mikaela@math.su.se
Ekdahl
Karl
K
Mölstad
Sigvard
S
Persson
Kristina
K
Hansson
Hans Bertil
HB
Giesecke
Johan
J
D001699:Biometry; D002656:Child Day Care Centers; D002675:Child, Preschool; D003198:Computer Simulation; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D006801:Humans; D016013:Likelihood Functions; D015233:Models, Statistical; D010403:Penicillin Resistance; D011008:Pneumococcal Infections / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000635:transmission*; D012621:Seasons; D013269:Stochastic Processes; D013296:Streptococcus pneumoniae / Q000187:drug effects; D013548:Sweden / Q000453:epidemiology