title: Stability and instability in alcohol diagnosis from ages 18 to 21 and ages 21 to 25 years.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Only in recent years have longitudinal studies of adolescents diagnosed alcohol use disorders and these have not distinguished between abuse and dependence. This study describes the course of disorder from age 18 to age 25 for abuse and dependence and investigates the extent to which continuities in disorder can be explained by background factors.
  
  
  METHODS
  A birth cohort of 1,265 individuals from Christchurch, New Zealand, followed annually to age 16 years then at 18, 21 and 25 years (1,003 at age 25). DSM-IV diagnoses were made from reports of alcohol symptoms at 18, 21 and 25 years.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The most stable diagnosis was that of no diagnosis, with 83-91% staying the same from one interview to the next. There were high rates of remission to no disorder; 57-75% for those with initial abuse and 50-54% of those with initial dependence. Nonetheless prior diagnosis was a strong predictor of subsequent diagnosis (ORs of 3.7-27.6). Adjustment for background risk factors reduced these odds ratios but all remained significant and substantial (minimum 2.6).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The dual finding of substantial discontinuity and substantial continuity indicates that both public health and treatment interventions are warranted.
authors.affiliation: Department of Public Health and General Practice, Christchurch School of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of Otago, PO Box 4345, Christchurch, New Zealand. elisabeth.wells@chmeds.ac.nz
authors.forename: J Elisabeth
authors.initials: JE
authors.lastname: Wells
authors.forename: L John
authors.initials: LJ
authors.lastname: Horwood
authors.forename: David M
authors.initials: DM
authors.lastname: Fergusson
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000294:Adolescent Behavior; D000328:Adult; D019973:Alcohol-Related Disorders / Q000175:diagnosis*; D015331:Cohort Studies; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D009520:New Zealand; D016017:Odds Ratio