title: [The problem connected with probability of zoonotic bird's influenza pandemic].
abstract: Because of the probability of influenza pandemic that can occur in the next few years the anthroponotic and zoonotic hypotheses of influenza A agents remained in biosphere are discussed. The most arguments show that anthroponotic A2 virus that persists in inactive form among the population since 1968 can return in circulation. Alternative is the long co-circulation of "drifting" variants of A1 and A3 viruses that continue causing separate weak epidemics in the world due to decrease in their epidemic potential. Zoonotic influenza in people represents the local epidemic manifestations of epizootic process in the countries of south-west Asia that occur under the influence of social and natural conditions usual for the region. It's unlikely that zoonotic recombinant viruses can rapidly adapt to human organism, to form the anthroponotic transfer mechanism and cause the pandemic. Competition between anthroponotic influenza viruses and other agents of human droplet infections prevents it. The main task of today is the prophylaxis of anthroponotic influenza and strengthening of epidemiological and epizootological inspection of zoonotic viruses-recombinants.
authors.forename: P I
authors.initials: PI
authors.lastname: Mel'nichenko
authors.forename: A B
authors.initials: AB
authors.lastname: Belov
authors.forename: P I
authors.initials: PI
authors.lastname: Ogarkov
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D001717:Birds / Q000821:virology; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000662:veterinary*; D006801:Humans; D009980:Influenza A virus / Q000472:pathogenicity*; D005585:Influenza in Birds / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control* / Q000821:virology; D015047:Zoonoses / Q000635:transmission* / Q000821:virology*