title: Predictability, bred vectors, and generation of ensembles in space-time chaotic systems.
abstract: Spatial configuration of initial errors strongly affects predictability of space-time chaotic systems. The predictability of numerical models can be adjusted by using prepared ensembles of initial conditions. We present a natural way of preparing ensembles based in using finite-amplitude perturbations with varying correlation. This allows one to take into account the underlying dynamics to generate initial perturbations with spatial correlations varying from fully correlated (bred vectors) to random fluctuations.
authors.affiliation: Instituto de Fisica de Cantabria, Avenida los Castros, 39008 Santander, Spain.
authors.forename: Cristina
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Primo
authors.forename: Miguel A
authors.initials: MA
authors.lastname: Rodríguez
authors.forename: Juan M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: López
authors.forename: Ivan
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Szendro