Predicting significant torso trauma.
BACKGROUND
Identification of motor vehicle crash (MVC) characteristics associated with thoracoabdominal injury would advance the development of automatic crash notification systems (ACNS) by improving triage and response times. Our objective was to determine the relationships between MVC characteristics and thoracoabdominal trauma to develop a torso injury probability model.


METHODS
Drivers involved in crashes from 1993 to 2001 within the National Automotive Sampling System were reviewed. Relationships between torso injury and MVC characteristics were assessed using multivariate logistic regression. Receiver operating characteristic curves were used to compare the model to current ACNS models.


RESULTS
There were a total of 56,466 drivers. Age, ejection, braking, avoidance, velocity, restraints, passenger-side impact, rollover, and vehicle weight and type were associated with injury (p < 0.05). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (83.9) was significantly greater than current ACNS models.


CONCLUSIONS
We have developed a thoracoabdominal injury probability model that may improve patient triage when used with ACNS.
Nirula
Ram
R
Division of Trauma/Critical Care, Department of Surgery, Medical College of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI, USA.
Talmor
Daniel
D
Brasel
Karen
K
D000063:Accidents, Traffic / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D000328:Adult; D001336:Automobiles; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011336:Probability; D012372:ROC Curve; D012307:Risk Factors; D013898:Thoracic Injuries / Q000175:diagnosis*; D014218:Triage