title: Probability of pancreatic cancer following diabetes: a population-based study.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Although diabetes occurs frequently in pancreatic cancer, the value of new-onset diabetes as a marker of underlying pancreatic cancer is unknown.
  
  
  METHODS
  We assembled a population-based cohort of 2122 Rochester, Minnesota, residents age > or =50 years who first met standardized criteria for diabetes between January 1, 1950, and December 31, 1994, and identified those who developed pancreatic cancer within 3 years of meeting criteria for diabetes. We compared observed rates of pancreatic cancer with expected rates based on the Iowa Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results registry. In a nested case control study, we compared body mass index (BMI) and smoking status in diabetes subjects with and without pancreatic cancer.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Of 2122 diabetic subjects, 18 (0.85%) were diagnosed with pancreatic cancer within 3 years of meeting criteria for diabetes; 10 of 18 (56%) were diagnosed <6 months after first meeting criteria for diabetes, and 3 were resected. The observed-to-expected ratio of pancreatic cancer in the cohort was 7.94 (95% CI, 4.70-12.55). Compared with subjects without pancreatic cancer, diabetic subjects with pancreatic cancer were more likely to have met diabetes criteria after age 69 (OR = 4.52, 95% CI, 1.61-12.74) years but did not differ significantly with respect to BMI values (29.2 +/- 6.8 vs 26.5 +/- 5.0, respectively). A larger proportion of those who developed pancreatic cancer were ever smokers (92% vs 69%, respectively), but this did not reach statistical significance.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Approximately 1% of diabetes subjects aged > or =50 years will be diagnosed with pancreatic cancer within 3 years of first meeting criteria for diabetes. The usefulness of new-onset diabetes as marker of early pancreatic cancer needs further evaluation.
authors.affiliation: Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Internal Medicine, Rochester, Minnesota 55905, USA. chari.suresh@mayo.edu
authors.forename: Suresh T
authors.initials: ST
authors.lastname: Chari
authors.forename: Cynthia L
authors.initials: CL
authors.lastname: Leibson
authors.forename: Kari G
authors.initials: KG
authors.lastname: Rabe
authors.forename: Jeanine
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Ransom
authors.forename: Mariza
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: de Andrade
authors.forename: Gloria M
authors.initials: GM
authors.lastname: Petersen
mesh_terms: D017677:Age Distribution; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D016022:Case-Control Studies; D015331:Cohort Studies; D015897:Comorbidity; D016001:Confidence Intervals; D003924:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000188:drug therapy / Q000453:epidemiology*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D016017:Odds Ratio; D010190:Pancreatic Neoplasms / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000453:epidemiology*; D011336:Probability; D011379:Prognosis; D012016:Reference Values; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012720:Severity of Illness Index; D017678:Sex Distribution; D016019:Survival Analysis; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology