Relative role of major risk factors for Type 2 diabetes development in the historical cohort of the Brisighella Heart Study: an 8-year follow-up.
OBJECTIVE
The aim of this study was to evaluate and quantify the role of different risk factors in the long-term development of Type 2 diabetes mellitus in a rural Italian population.


METHODS
The Brisighella Heart Study (BHS; 1972-2003) is a prospective, population-based longitudinal epidemiological cohort involving 2939 randomly selected subjects, aged 14-84 years, resident in the rural Italian town of Brisighella. For this study, we randomly selected 1441 adult subjects representative of the Brisighella population; consecutively visited during three BHS surveys. A step-wise Cox regression analysis determined the prognostic significance of each independent risk factor for the development of Type 2 diabetes in the 8-year long follow-up.


RESULTS
Blood pressure, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglycerides, physical activity, total energy intake, and drug treatment had no effect on the incidence of diabetes. Age was a significant predictor of Type 2 diabetes when inserted alone in the model (P = 0.007), but irrelevant when adjusted for baseline body mass index (BMI) and or fasting plasma glucose. Among these with impaired fasting glucose (IFG), the diabetes incidence/year was estimated to be 6.6% for men and 11.2% for women (P < 0.001). Basal glycaemia under 6.1 mmol/l were not significant long-term predictors of diabetes development, while higher basal glycaemia and each level BMI were.


CONCLUSIONS
Our findings confirm that IFG and BMI predict Type 2 diabetes development in our population. This should help to identify effective approaches to prevention.
Cicero
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AF
Atherosclerosis Research Centre GC Descovich, Clinical Medicine and Applied Biotechonology, Department D. Campanacci S. Orsola-Malpighi Hospital, University of Bologna, Italy. afgcicero@cardionet.it
Dormi
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A
Nascetti
S
S
Panourgia
M P
MP
Grandi
E
E
D'Addato
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S
Gaddi
A
A
D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D017677:Age Distribution; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D001786:Blood Glucose / Q000032:analysis; D003924:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / Q000150:complications / Q000453:epidemiology*; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D018149:Glucose Intolerance / Q000150:complications / Q000453:epidemiology; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007558:Italy / Q000453:epidemiology; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors; D012423:Rural Health; D017678:Sex Distribution
D001786:Blood Glucose