title: Prognostic factor analysis for plaque psoriasis.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Little is known about the long-term prognostic factors which affect clinical outcomes after the diagnosis of psoriasis.
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  To identify the prognostic factors which predict long-term outcomes after diagnosis.
  
  
  METHODS
  Patients' clinical characteristics at diagnosis were associated with long-term prognosis using the logistic regression method for 169 psoriasis patients (median follow-up time 11.6 years).
  
  
  RESULTS
  The factors age > or =40 [odds ratio 0.27, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.10-0.72, p = 0.0091], male (odds ratio 2.67, 95% CI 1.02-7.00,p = 0.0459) and BMI > or =25 (odds ratio 2.74, 95% CI 1.01-7.42, p = 0.0480) had significant effects on long-term prognosis after diagnosis. A simple prognostic index based on these factors was proposed.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Three major prognostic factors were identified. The proposed index may be useful in the design of future clinical trials for psoriasis and in the selection of appropriate therapeutic approaches for individual patients.
authors.affiliation: Department of Pharmacoepidemiology, School of Public Health, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan. rsakai@mug.biglobe.ne.jp
authors.forename: Rie
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Sakai
authors.forename: Shigeyuki
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Matsui
authors.forename: Masanori
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Fukushima
authors.forename: Hideyo
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Yasuda
authors.forename: Harumitsu
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Miyauchi
authors.forename: Yoshiki
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Miyachi
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D017677:Age Distribution; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D001707:Biopsy, Needle; D015992:Body Mass Index; D003131:Combined Modality Therapy; D018450:Disease Progression; D005163:Factor Analysis, Statistical; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007150:Immunohistochemistry; D015994:Incidence; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D016017:Odds Ratio; D011336:Probability; D011379:Prognosis; D011565:Psoriasis / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000473:pathology* / Q000628:therapy; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors; D012720:Severity of Illness Index; D017678:Sex Distribution; D018434:Sickness Impact Profile; D013997:Time Factors