title: Relative role of major risk factors for Type 2 diabetes development in the historical cohort of the Brisighella Heart Study: an 8-year follow-up.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  The aim of this study was to evaluate and quantify the role of different risk factors in the long-term development of Type 2 diabetes mellitus in a rural Italian population.
  
  
  METHODS
  The Brisighella Heart Study (BHS; 1972-2003) is a prospective, population-based longitudinal epidemiological cohort involving 2939 randomly selected subjects, aged 14-84 years, resident in the rural Italian town of Brisighella. For this study, we randomly selected 1441 adult subjects representative of the Brisighella population; consecutively visited during three BHS surveys. A step-wise Cox regression analysis determined the prognostic significance of each independent risk factor for the development of Type 2 diabetes in the 8-year long follow-up.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Blood pressure, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglycerides, physical activity, total energy intake, and drug treatment had no effect on the incidence of diabetes. Age was a significant predictor of Type 2 diabetes when inserted alone in the model (P = 0.007), but irrelevant when adjusted for baseline body mass index (BMI) and or fasting plasma glucose. Among these with impaired fasting glucose (IFG), the diabetes incidence/year was estimated to be 6.6% for men and 11.2% for women (P < 0.001). Basal glycaemia under 6.1 mmol/l were not significant long-term predictors of diabetes development, while higher basal glycaemia and each level BMI were.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Our findings confirm that IFG and BMI predict Type 2 diabetes development in our population. This should help to identify effective approaches to prevention.
authors.affiliation: Atherosclerosis Research Centre GC Descovich, Clinical Medicine and Applied Biotechonology, Department D. Campanacci S. Orsola-Malpighi Hospital, University of Bologna, Italy. afgcicero@cardionet.it
authors.forename: A F G
authors.initials: AF
authors.lastname: Cicero
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Dormi
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Nascetti
authors.forename: M P
authors.initials: MP
authors.lastname: Panourgia
authors.forename: E
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Grandi
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: D'Addato
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Gaddi
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D017677:Age Distribution; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D001786:Blood Glucose / Q000032:analysis; D003924:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / Q000150:complications / Q000453:epidemiology*; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D018149:Glucose Intolerance / Q000150:complications / Q000453:epidemiology; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007558:Italy / Q000453:epidemiology; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors; D012423:Rural Health; D017678:Sex Distribution
chemical_list: D001786:Blood Glucose