Predictability, bred vectors, and generation of ensembles in space-time chaotic systems.
Spatial configuration of initial errors strongly affects predictability of space-time chaotic systems. The predictability of numerical models can be adjusted by using prepared ensembles of initial conditions. We present a natural way of preparing ensembles based in using finite-amplitude perturbations with varying correlation. This allows one to take into account the underlying dynamics to generate initial perturbations with spatial correlations varying from fully correlated (bred vectors) to random fluctuations.
Primo
Cristina
C
Instituto de Fisica de Cantabria, Avenida los Castros, 39008 Santander, Spain.
Rodríguez
Miguel A
MA
López
Juan M
JM
Szendro
Ivan
I