title: A prediction rule for clinical diagnosis of severe acute respiratory syndrome.
abstract: A prospective study was undertaken to identify clinical, radiographical, haematological and biochemical profiles of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) patients. A prediction rule, which demarcates low from high risk patients for SARS in an outbreak situation was developed. A total of 295 patients with unexplained respiratory illnesses, admitted to Queen Mary Hospital, Hong Kong SAR, China, in March to July 2003, were evaluated for clinical, radiological, haematological and alanine transaminase (ALT) data daily for 3 days after hospitalisation. In total, 44 cases were subsequently confirmed to have SARS by RT-PCR (68.2%) and serology (100%). The scoring system of attributing 11, 10, 3, 3 and 3 points to the presence of independent risk factors, namely: epidemiological link, radiographical deterioration, myalgia, lymphopenia and elevated ALT respectively, generated high and low-risk (total score 11-30 and 0-10, respectively) groups for SARS. The sensitivity and specificity of this prediction rule in positively identifying a SARS patient were 97.7 and 81.3%, respectively. The positive and negative predictive values were 47.8 and 99.5%, respectively. The prediction rule appears to be helpful in assessing suspected patients with severe acute respiratory syndrome at the bedside, and should be further validated in other severe acute respiratory syndrome cohorts.
authors.affiliation: Division of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, University Dept of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Queen Mary Hospital, Pokfulam, Hong Kong SAR, China.
authors.forename: P L
authors.initials: PL
authors.lastname: Ho
authors.forename: P H
authors.initials: PH
authors.lastname: Chau
authors.forename: P S F
authors.initials: PS
authors.lastname: Yip
authors.forename: G C
authors.initials: GC
authors.lastname: Ooi
authors.forename: P L
authors.initials: PL
authors.lastname: Khong
authors.forename: J C
authors.initials: JC
authors.lastname: Ho
authors.forename: P C
authors.initials: PC
authors.lastname: Wong
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Ko
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Yan
authors.forename: K W
authors.initials: KW
authors.lastname: Tsang
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000410:Alanine Transaminase / Q000097:blood; D001772:Blood Cell Count; D016022:Case-Control Studies; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007677:Kidney Function Tests; D016015:Logistic Models; D008168:Lung / Q000000981:diagnostic imaging; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011446:Prospective Studies; D011859:Radiography; D018570:Risk Assessment; D045169:Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome / Q000150:complications / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000378:metabolism; D019562:Viral Load
chemical_list: D000410:Alanine Transaminase