title: Length of stay-based patient flow models: recent developments and future directions.
abstract: Modelling patient flow in health care systems is vital in understanding the system activity and may therefore prove to be useful in improving their functionality. An extensively used measure is the average length of stay which, although easy to calculate and quantify, is not considered appropriate when the distribution is very long-tailed. In fact, simple deterministic models are generally considered inadequate because of the necessity for models to reflect the complex, variable, dynamic and multidimensional nature of the systems. This paper focuses on modelling length of stay and flow of patients. An overview of such modelling techniques is provided, with particular attention to their impact and suitability in managing a hospital service.
authors.affiliation: Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, David Bates Building, Queen 's University of Belfast, Belfast Northern Ireland, UK. a.h.marshall@qub.ac.uk
authors.forename: Adele
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Marshall
authors.forename: Christos
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Vasilakis
authors.forename: Elia
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: El-Darzi
mesh_terms: D001509:Bed Occupancy / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D003198:Computer Simulation; D006761:Hospitals / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006801:Humans; D007902:Length of Stay / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D015233:Models, Statistical; D020380:Needs Assessment / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D013269:Stochastic Processes