title: The burden of mortality attributable to diabetes: realistic estimates for the year 2000.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To estimate the global number of excess deaths due to diabetes in the year 2000.
  
  
  METHODS
  We used a computerized generic formal disease model (DisMod II), used by the World Health Organization to assess disease burden through modeling the relationships between incidence, prevalence, and disease-specific mortality. Baseline input data included population structure, age- and sex-specific estimates of diabetes prevalence, and available published estimates of relative risk of death for people with diabetes compared with people without diabetes. The results were validated with population-based observations and independent estimates of relative risk of death.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The excess global mortality attributable to diabetes in the year 2000 was estimated to be 2.9 million deaths, equivalent to 5.2% of all deaths. Excess mortality attributable to diabetes accounted for 2-3% of deaths in poorest countries and over 8% in the U.S., Canada, and the Middle East. In people 35-64 years old, 6-27% of deaths were attributable to diabetes.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  These are the first global estimates of mortality attributable to diabetes. Globally, diabetes is likely to be the fifth leading cause of death.
authors.affiliation: Department of Chronic Diseases and Health Promotion, World Health Organization, 20 Avenue Appia, 1211 Geneva 27, Switzerland. roglicg@who.int
authors.forename: Gojka
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Roglic
authors.forename: Nigel
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Unwin
authors.forename: Peter H
authors.initials: PH
authors.lastname: Bennett
authors.forename: Colin
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Mathers
authors.forename: Jaakko
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Tuomilehto
authors.forename: Satyajit
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Nag
authors.forename: Vincent
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Connolly
authors.forename: Hilary
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: King
mesh_terms: D000349:Africa; D003920:Diabetes Mellitus / Q000401:mortality*; D005060:Europe; D006801:Humans; D015233:Models, Statistical; D009656:North America; D014944:World Health Organization