The burden of mortality attributable to diabetes: realistic estimates for the year 2000.
OBJECTIVE
To estimate the global number of excess deaths due to diabetes in the year 2000.


METHODS
We used a computerized generic formal disease model (DisMod II), used by the World Health Organization to assess disease burden through modeling the relationships between incidence, prevalence, and disease-specific mortality. Baseline input data included population structure, age- and sex-specific estimates of diabetes prevalence, and available published estimates of relative risk of death for people with diabetes compared with people without diabetes. The results were validated with population-based observations and independent estimates of relative risk of death.


RESULTS
The excess global mortality attributable to diabetes in the year 2000 was estimated to be 2.9 million deaths, equivalent to 5.2% of all deaths. Excess mortality attributable to diabetes accounted for 2-3% of deaths in poorest countries and over 8% in the U.S., Canada, and the Middle East. In people 35-64 years old, 6-27% of deaths were attributable to diabetes.


CONCLUSIONS
These are the first global estimates of mortality attributable to diabetes. Globally, diabetes is likely to be the fifth leading cause of death.
Roglic
Gojka
G
Department of Chronic Diseases and Health Promotion, World Health Organization, 20 Avenue Appia, 1211 Geneva 27, Switzerland. roglicg@who.int
Unwin
Nigel
N
Bennett
Peter H
PH
Mathers
Colin
C
Tuomilehto
Jaakko
J
Nag
Satyajit
S
Connolly
Vincent
V
King
Hilary
H
D000349:Africa; D003920:Diabetes Mellitus / Q000401:mortality*; D005060:Europe; D006801:Humans; D015233:Models, Statistical; D009656:North America; D014944:World Health Organization