title: Community blood supply model: development of a new model to assess the safety, sufficiency, and cost of the blood supply.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Through a combination of predonation donor screening and donated unit testing, the blood supply is safer than ever. However, as a result of increasingly stringent screening measures, one of the greatest threats may be an insufficient supply. The balance between safety and adequacy of the blood supply has not received enough attention.
  
  
  METHODS
  The authors developed a model to allow for empirical investigation of the determinants of a safe and sufficient supply. The model is a cohort simulation of allogeneic whole-blood donation, with the population of presenting donors stratified into 8 age and gender groups because the probability of donor and donation deferral varies by these characteristics. Parameters are estimated from year 2000 Blood Centers of Pacific (BCP) data. The model includes cost parameters, which were estimated using BCP expenditure data. The main outcomes are the number of transfusable units of blood and the unit cost of procurement.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The model tracks the production of a supply of blood, highlighting the influence of demographic characteristics, predonation deferral, underweight collection of blood units, and associated costs. The authors sought to establish model validity by showing that modeled results closely mimic the outcomes and costs observed by blood bank administrators.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The model was developed to evaluate blood safety and policy decisions; it can be used to assess the impact of predonation deferrals, such as expanded European travel deferral for variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease, or the impact of new testing strategies, such as nucleic acid testing for West Nile virus.
authors.affiliation: Pharmaceutical Outcomes Research and Policy Program, University of Washington, Seattle, USA. bcuster@bloodsystems.org
authors.forename: Brian
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Custer
authors.forename: Eric S
authors.initials: ES
authors.lastname: Johnson
authors.forename: Sean D
authors.initials: SD
authors.lastname: Sullivan
authors.forename: Tom K
authors.initials: TK
authors.lastname: Hazlet
authors.forename: Scott D
authors.initials: SD
authors.lastname: Ramsey
authors.forename: Edward L
authors.initials: EL
authors.lastname: Murphy
authors.forename: Michael P
authors.initials: MP
authors.lastname: Busch
mesh_terms: D001782:Blood Donors; D015331:Cohort Studies; D003153:Community Health Services / Q000458:organization & administration*; D003365:Costs and Cost Analysis; D017146:Models, Organizational; D017751:Safety Management / Q000458:organization & administration*