title: [Forecasting of prevalence of cardio-vascular pathology in children population].
abstract: Statistical modeling and forecasting of morbidity, disability and mortality of circulatory system diseases and congenital anomalies in children of Ryazan oblast was organized. Procedures of expotential smoothing and determination of statistical significance power of predicted values were applied. Application of expotential smoothing models with linear trend enables reliable forecasting of morbidity of circulatory system diseases and congenital anomalies in children. In Ryazan oblast, disability and mortality of children has higher variance which prevent to apply reliable forecasting. Increase in morbidity and disability rate of circulatory system diseases and congenital anomalies and widening of dispensary group is detected. Predicted increasing of morbidity rate of cardiovascular pathology in children and widening of corresponding dispensary group requires enhanced capacity of medical care supported by according financing.
authors.forename: D V
authors.initials: DV
authors.lastname: Shutov
authors.forename: O E
authors.initials: OE
authors.lastname: Konovalov
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D002318:Cardiovascular Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology*; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007223:Infant; D015995:Prevalence; D011379:Prognosis; D012426:Russia / Q000453:epidemiology; D015996:Survival Rate / Q000639:trends