title: Technological advances in cancer and future spending by the elderly.
abstract: This paper forecasts the consequences of scientific progress in cancer for total Medicare spending between 2005 and 2030. Because technological advance is uncertain, widely varying scenarios are modeled. A baseline scenario assumes that year 2000 technology stays frozen. A second scenario incorporates recent cancer treatment advances and their attendant discomfort. Optimistic scenarios analyzed include the discovery of an inexpensive cure, a vaccine that prevents cancer, and vastly improved screening techniques. Applying the Future Elderly Model, we find that no scenario holds major promise for guaranteeing the future financial health of Medicare.
authors.affiliation: Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA. jay@stanford.edu
authors.forename: Jayanta
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Bhattacharya
authors.forename: Baoping
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Shang
authors.forename: Catherine K
authors.initials: CK
authors.lastname: Su
authors.forename: Dana P
authors.initials: DP
authors.lastname: Goldman
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D035843:Biomedical Research; D003625:Data Collection; D005102:Health Expenditures / Q000639:trends; D006801:Humans; D013677:Medical Laboratory Science; D006278:Medicare / Q000191:economics*; D009369:Neoplasms / Q000191:economics / Q000453:epidemiology; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology