Underestimating the duration of future events: memory incorrectly used or memory bias?
People frequently underestimate how long it will take them to complete a task. The prevailing view is that during the prediction process, people incorrectly use their memories of how long similar tasks have taken in the past because they take an overly optimistic outlook. A variety of evidence is reviewed in this article that points to a different, although not mutually exclusive, explanation: People base predictions of future duration on their memories of how long past events have taken, but these memories are systematic underestimates of past duration. People appear to underestimate future event duration because they underestimate past event duration.
Roy
Michael M
MM
Department of Psychology, University of California, San Diego, CA, USA. mroy@cyrus.psych.uiuc.edu
Christenfeld
Nicholas J S
NJ
McKenzie
Craig R M
CR
D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D008568:Memory; D013997:Time Factors; D013998:Time Perception