title: Identifying potential health care innovations for the future elderly.
abstract: We used a method that combined literature review and expertjudgment to assess potential medical innovations for older adults. We evaluated innovations in four domains: cardiovascular disease, cancer, the biology of aging, and neurologic disease. The innovations can be categorized by common themes: improved disease prevention, better detection of subclinical or early clinical disease, and treatments for established disease. We report the likelihood, potential impact, and potential cost implications for thirty-four innovations, and we revisit this forecast five years later. Many of the innovations have the potential to greatly affect the costs and outcomes of health care.
authors.affiliation: Evidence-Based Practice Center, RAND Health, Santa Monica, California, USA. shekelle@rand.org
authors.forename: Paul G
authors.initials: PG
authors.lastname: Shekelle
authors.forename: Eduardo
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Ortiz
authors.forename: Sydne J
authors.initials: SJ
authors.lastname: Newberry
authors.forename: Michael W
authors.initials: MW
authors.lastname: Rich
authors.forename: Shannon L
authors.initials: SL
authors.lastname: Rhodes
authors.forename: Robert H
authors.initials: RH
authors.lastname: Brook
authors.forename: Dana P
authors.initials: DP
authors.lastname: Goldman
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D004059:Diffusion of Innovation; D049674:History, 21st Century; D006801:Humans; D007407:Interviews as Topic; D011320:Primary Health Care; D014481:United States