title: Estimated risks for developing obesity in the Framingham Heart Study.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  The short- and long-term risks for developing overweight or obesity are unknown.
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  To estimate the short-term, long-term, and lifetime risks for developing overweight or obesity in adults in the community.
  
  
  METHODS
  Prospective cohort study, 1971 to 2001.
  
  
  METHODS
  Community-based study, Framingham, Massachusetts.
  
  
  METHODS
  4117 white participants (51.9% women) from the Framingham Heart Study.
  
  
  METHODS
  The short-term (4 years) and long-term (10 to 30 years) risks for ever becoming overweight or more (body mass index [BMI] > or = 25 kg/m2) or obese (BMI > or = 30 kg/m2) for men and women at 30, 40, and 50 years of age with a normal BMI (between 18.5 kg/m2 and 25.0 kg/m2).
  
  
  RESULTS
  The observed 4-year rates of developing overweight varied from 14% to 19% in women and 26% to 30% in men. Four-year rates of developing obesity ranged from 5% to 7% in women and 7% to 9% in men. The long-term (30-year) risk estimates were similar for the 2 sexes generally; varied somewhat with age (in men, being lower for those 50 years of age); and, overall, exceeded 1 in 2 persons for overweight or more, 1 in 4 individuals for obesity, and 1 in 10 people for stage II obesity (BMI > or = 35 kg/m2) across different age groups. The 30-year estimates correspond to the residual lifetime risk for overweight or more or obesity for participants 50 years of age.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  These findings may not be generalizable to other races or ethnicities.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The long-term risks for overweight or more or obesity exceeded 50% and 25%, respectively, indicating a large public health burden. These estimates suggest that the future burden of obesity-associated diseases may be substantial.
authors.affiliation: National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute's Framingham Heart Study, Framingham 01702-5803, USA. vasan@bu.edu
authors.forename: Ramachandran S
authors.initials: RS
authors.lastname: Vasan
authors.forename: Michael J
authors.initials: MJ
authors.lastname: Pencina
authors.forename: Mark
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Cobain
authors.forename: Matthew S
authors.initials: MS
authors.lastname: Freiberg
authors.forename: Ralph B
authors.initials: RB
authors.lastname: D'Agostino
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D017677:Age Distribution; D015992:Body Mass Index; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009765:Obesity / Q000453:epidemiology*; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors; D017678:Sex Distribution; D014481:United States; D015430:Weight Gain