title: Longitudinal modifications of the MELD score have prognostic meaning in patients with liver cirrhosis.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score is an important and well established tool for assessing prognosis in patients with liver cirrhosis. It has been suggested that the longitudinal evaluation of the MELD score may reflect the progression of liver failure more reliably and therefore be more useful in prognostic assessment.
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  To assess the prognostic meaning of MELD score modifications in a cohort of cirrhotic patients in whom clinical and biochemical workup was carried out at least twice during a minimum interval of 30 days.
  
  
  METHODS
  Forty-six cirrhotic patients were longitudinally evaluated for a median follow-up of 365 days. After initial assessment, all the patients had at least one clinical and biochemical reevaluation during follow-up, which was performed no less than 1 month after initial evaluation. MELD was calculated at entry and at second evaluation. DeltaMELD was calculated as MELD at second evaluation minus MELD at entry. DeltaMELD/time was calculated as DeltaMELD divided by time elapsed between initial assessment and second evaluation expressed in months.
  
  
  RESULTS
  During follow-up, 13 patients died (28%). The median interval between clinical evaluations was 120 days. MELD scores at entry (13 +/- 4 vs 16 +/- 6, P = 0.0516) and DeltaMELD (0 +/- 4 vs 4 +/- 2, P = 0.0028) were significantly different between patients who died and those who survived during the 1-year follow-up. All the patients who died during follow-up showed an increase of at least 1 unit in DeltaMELD/time (sensitivity = 100%), and all the patients who survived showed a decrease of more than 1 unit in DeltaMELD/time (specificity = 100%).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Longitudinal evaluation of the MELD score provides important prognostic information that seems to complete the prognostic definition provided by "static" MELD. Prospective studies in larger series are needed to validate the prognostic use of MELD modifications over time.
authors.affiliation: Gastroenterology Unit, Department of Internal Medicine, University of Genoa, Viale Benedetto XV no. 6, 16132 Genoa, Italy. egiannini@unige.it
authors.forename: Edoardo G
authors.initials: EG
authors.lastname: Giannini
authors.forename: Domenico
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Risso
authors.forename: Sergio
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Caglieris
authors.forename: Roberto
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Testa
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D018450:Disease Progression; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D008103:Liver Cirrhosis / Q000150:complications / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000401:mortality; D017093:Liver Failure / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000209:etiology / Q000401:mortality; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011379:Prognosis; D012307:Risk Factors; D012720:Severity of Illness Index; D016019:Survival Analysis; D013997:Time Factors