title: Consequences of health trends and medical innovation for the future elderly.
abstract: Recent innovations in biomedicine seem poised to revolutionize medical practice. At the same time, disease and disability are increasing among younger populations. This paper considers how these confluent trends will affect the elderly's health status and health care spending over the next thirty years. Because healthier people live longer, cumulative Medicare spending varies little with a beneficiary's disease and disability status upon entering Medicare. On the other hand, ten of the most promising medical technologies are forecast to increase spending greatly. It is unlikely that a "silver bullet" will emerge to both improve health and dramatically reduce medical spending.
authors.affiliation: RAND, Santa Monica, CA, USA. dgoldman@rand.org
authors.forename: Dana P
authors.initials: DP
authors.lastname: Goldman
authors.forename: Baoping
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Shang
authors.forename: Jayanta
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Bhattacharya
authors.forename: Alan M
authors.initials: AM
authors.lastname: Garber
authors.forename: Michael
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Hurd
authors.forename: Geoffrey F
authors.initials: GF
authors.lastname: Joyce
authors.forename: Darius N
authors.initials: DN
authors.lastname: Lakdawalla
authors.forename: Constantijn
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Panis
authors.forename: Paul G
authors.initials: PG
authors.lastname: Shekelle
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D020811:Biomedical Technology; D004059:Diffusion of Innovation; D005851:Geriatric Nursing; D006801:Humans; D011320:Primary Health Care; D014481:United States