[Application of the Gail method of calculating risk in the population of Valencia].
BACKGROUND
The objective of this study was to verify whether the method defined by Gail is applicable and predictive in a population of women in Valencia (Spain).


METHODS
Of the 685 patients diagnosed with breast cancer and attended-to in 2000-2001, 186 incident cases were identified. The variables studied were obtained from a specific questionnaire which included characteristics of reproductive history, number of biopsies and contraceptive pill consumption prior to the diagnosis. Using the model of the National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project (NSABP), an adaptation of the Gail model, the risk of developing breast cancer at 5 years was estimated.


RESULTS
Only 40% of those women diagnosed as having breast cancer would have been identified as a high-risk patient by the Gail method. With our population group, the method detected the elderly women with a medical history of breast cancer who developed advanced stage disease.


CONCLUSIONS
The Gail method does not adapt well to the study population of Valencia. It would be necessary to add other risk-factors to the Gail method so as to identify more patients in our area.
Pastor Climente
Ismael Pascual
IP
Servicio de Farmacia, Hospital Clínic Universitari de Valencia, Avda Blasco Ibáñez 17, 46010 Valencia, Spain.
Morales Suárez-Varela
María M
MM
Llopis González
Agustín
A
Magraner Gil
José F
JF
D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D001943:Breast Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology*; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods*; D013030:Spain / Q000453:epidemiology