title: MODELKEY. Models for assessing and forecasting the impact of environmental key pollutants on freshwater and marine ecosystems and biodiversity.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Triggered by the requirement of Water Framework Directive for a good ecological status for European river systems till 2015 and by still existing lacks in tools for cause identification of insufficient ecological status MODELKEY (http:// www.modelkey.org), an Integrated Project with 26 partners from 14 European countries, was started in 2005. MODELKEY is the acronym for 'Models for assessing and forecasting the impact of environmental key pollutants on freshwater and marine ecosystems and biodiversity'. The project is funded by the European Commission within the Sixth Framework Programme.
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  MODELKEY comprises a multidisciplinary approach aiming at developing interlinked tools for an enhanced understanding of cause-effect-relationships between insufficient ecological status and environmental pollution as causative factor and for the assessment and forecasting of the risks of key pollutants on fresh water and marine ecosystems at a river basin and adjacent marine environment scale. New modelling tools for risk assessment including generic exposure assessment models, mechanistic models of toxic effects in simplified food chains, integrated diagnostic effect models based on community patterns, predictive component effect models applying artificial neural networks and GIS-based analysis of integrated risk indexes will be developed and linked to a user-friendly decision support system for the prioritisation of risks, contamination sources and contaminated sites.
  
  
  METHODS
  Modelling will be closely interlinked with extensive laboratory and field investigations. Early warning strategies on the basis of sub-lethal effects in vitro and in vivo are provided and combined with fractionation and analytical tools for effect-directed analysis of key toxicants. Integrated assessment of exposure and effects on biofilms, invertebrate and fish communities linking chemical analysis in water, sediment and biota with in vitro, in vivo and community level effect analysis is designed to provide data and conceptual understanding for risk arising from key toxicants in aquatic ecosystems and will be used for verification of various modelling approaches.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The developed tools will be verified in case studies representing European key areas including Mediterranean, Western and Central European river basins. An end-user-directed decision support system will be provided for cost-effective tool selection and appropriate risk and site prioritisation.
authors.affiliation: UFZ Centre for Environmental Research, Permoserstrasse 15, 04318 Leipzig, Germany. werner.brack@ufz.de
authors.forename: Werner
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Brack
authors.forename: Joop
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Bakker
authors.forename: Eric
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: de Deckere
authors.forename: Charlotte
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Deerenberg
authors.forename: Jos
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: van Gils
authors.forename: Michaela
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Hein
authors.forename: Pavel
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Jurajda
authors.forename: Bas
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Kooijman
authors.forename: Marja
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Lamoree
authors.forename: Sovan
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Lek
authors.forename: Maria Jose
authors.initials: MJ
authors.lastname: López de Alda
authors.forename: Antonio
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Marcomini
authors.forename: Isabel
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Muñoz
authors.forename: Silke
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Rattei
authors.forename: Helmut
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Segner
authors.forename: Kevin
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Thomas
authors.forename: Peter Carsten
authors.initials: PC
authors.lastname: von der Ohe
authors.forename: Bernhard
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Westrich
authors.forename: Dick
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: de Zwart
authors.forename: Mechthild
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Schmitt-Jansen
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D044822:Biodiversity; D018441:Biofilms; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources; D017753:Ecosystem; D004785:Environmental Pollutants / Q000506:poisoning*; D005399:Fishes; D020387:Food Chain; D005544:Forecasting; D005618:Fresh Water; D007448:Invertebrates; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012623:Seawater
chemical_list: D004785:Environmental Pollutants