title: The effect of disease life history on the evolutionary emergence of novel pathogens.
abstract: We present a general analytical result for the probability that a newly introduced pathogen will evolve adaptations that allow it to maintain itself within any novel host population, as a function of disease life-history parameters. We demonstrate that this probability of "evolutionary emergence" depends on two key properties of the disease life history: (i) the basic reproduction number and (ii) the expected duration of an infection. These parameters encapsulate all of the relevant information and can be combined in a very simple expression, with estimates for the rates of adaptive mutation, to predict the probability of emergence for any novel pathogen. In general, diseases that initially have a large reproductive number and/or that cause relatively long infections are the most prone to evolutionary adaptation.
authors.affiliation: Department of Biology, Queen's University, Kingston, Ontario, Canada K7L3N6. jeanbaptisteandre@gmail.com
authors.forename: Jean-Baptiste
authors.initials: JB
authors.lastname: André
authors.forename: Troy
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Day
mesh_terms: D000222:Adaptation, Physiological / Q000502:physiology*; D005075:Biological Evolution; D003141:Communicable Diseases; D018562:Disease Transmission, Infectious; D006801:Humans; D008954:Models, Biological; D009154:Mutation / Q000235:genetics; D011336:Probability; D012098:Reproduction / Q000235:genetics; D013997:Time Factors; D014774:Virulence / Q000235:genetics / Q000502:physiology