title: Preliminary development of a clinical prediction rule for determining which patients with low back pain will respond to a stabilization exercise program.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To develop a clinical prediction rule to predict treatment response to a stabilization exercise program for patients with low back pain (LBP).
  
  
  METHODS
  A prospective, cohort study of patients with nonradicular LBP referred to physical therapy (PT).
  
  
  METHODS
  Outpatient PT clinics.
  
  
  METHODS
  Fifty-four patients with nonradicular LBP.
  
  
  METHODS
  A standardized stabilization exercise program.
  
  
  METHODS
  Treatment response (success or failure) was categorized based on changes in the Oswestry Disability Questionnaire scores after 8 weeks.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Eighteen subjects were categorized as treatment successes, 15 as treatment failures, and 21 as somewhat improved. After using regression analyses to determine the association between standardized examination variables and treatment response status, preliminary clinical prediction rules were developed for predicting success (positive likelihood ratio [LR], 4.0) and failure (negative LR, .18). The most important variables were age, straight-leg raise, prone instability test, aberrant motions, lumbar hypermobility, and fear-avoidance beliefs.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  It appears that the response to a stabilization exercise program in patients with LBP can be predicted from variables collected from the clinical examination. The prediction rules could be used to determine whether patients with LBP are likely to benefit from stabilization exercises.
authors.affiliation: Department of Physical Therapy and Rehabilitation Science, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD 21201, USA. ghicks@som.umaryland.edu
authors.forename: Gregory E
authors.initials: GE
authors.lastname: Hicks
authors.forename: Julie M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Fritz
authors.forename: Anthony
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Delitto
authors.forename: Stuart M
authors.initials: SM
authors.lastname: McGill
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D015331:Cohort Studies; D016001:Confidence Intervals; D005081:Exercise Therapy / Q000379:methods*; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D017116:Low Back Pain / Q000145:classification* / Q000534:rehabilitation*; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D010147:Pain Measurement; D026741:Physical Therapy Modalities; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011336:Probability; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors; D012720:Severity of Illness Index; D016896:Treatment Outcome