title: Bayesian evidence synthesis to extrapolate survival estimates in cost-effectiveness studies.
abstract: This paper is concerned with survival extrapolation that represents an integral part of cost-effectiveness analysis. In the absence of long-term survival estimates from randomized clinical trials or meta-analysis we show how age-sex matched U.K. population data can additionally be used to estimate survival patterns. We adopt a Bayesian approach and we synthesize evidence from different sources such as patient registries, U.K. population statistics and meta-analyses. We also present methodology for Bayesian analysis of the additive hazards model and we show how to apply the techniques using freely available software. The methods are illustrated using data from a cohort of cardiac arrhythmia patients.
authors.affiliation: MRC Biostatistics Unit, Institute of Public Health, University Forvie site, Robinson Way, Cambridge CB2 2SR, UK. nikolaos.demiris@mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk
authors.forename: N
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Demiris
authors.forename: L D
authors.initials: LD
authors.lastname: Sharples
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D015331:Cohort Studies; D017147:Defibrillators, Implantable / Q000191:economics / Q000592:standards; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D018803:Models, Economic; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D012984:Software; D016019:Survival Analysis; D006113:United Kingdom; D014693:Ventricular Fibrillation / Q000628:therapy