title: Analysis of the renal transplant waiting list in the País Valencià (Spain).
abstract: In this paper we analyse the renal transplant waiting list of the País Valencià in Spain, using Queueing theory. The customers of this queue are patients with end-stage renal failure waiting for a kidney transplant. We set up a simplified model to represent the flow of the customers through the system, and perform Bayesian inference to estimate parameters in the model. Finally, we consider several scenarios by tuning the estimations achieved and computationally simulate the behaviour of the queue under each one. The results indicate that the system could reach equilibrium at some point in the future and the model forecasts a slow decrease in the size of the waiting list in the short and middle term.
authors.affiliation: Departament d'Estadística i Investigació Operativa, Universitat de València, Spain.
authors.forename: J J
authors.initials: JJ
authors.lastname: Abellán
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Armero
authors.forename: D
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Conesa
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Pérez-Panadés
authors.forename: M A
authors.initials: MA
authors.lastname: Martínez-Beneito
authors.forename: O
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Zurriaga
authors.forename: M J
authors.initials: MJ
authors.lastname: García-Blasco
authors.forename: H
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Vanaclocha
mesh_terms: D001499:Bayes Theorem; D006801:Humans; D016030:Kidney Transplantation; D013030:Spain; D013598:Systems Theory; D014850:Waiting Lists