title: Potential impact of antiviral drug use during influenza pandemic.
abstract: The recent spread of highly pathogenic strains of avian influenza has highlighted the threat posed by pandemic influenza. In the early phases of a pandemic, the only treatment available would be neuraminidase inhibitors, which many countries are considering stockpiling for pandemic use. We estimate the effect on hospitalization rates of using different antiviral stockpile sizes to treat infection. We estimate that stockpiles that cover 20%-25% of the population would be sufficient to treat most of the clinical cases and could lead to 50% to 77% reductions in hospitalizations. Substantial reductions in hospitalization could be achieved with smaller antiviral stockpiles if drugs are reserved for persons at high risk.
authors.affiliation: Centre for Emergency Preparedness and Response, Health Protection Agency, Salisbury, Wiltshire, UK. raymond.gani@hpa.org.uk
authors.forename: Raymond
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Gani
authors.forename: Helen
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Hughes
authors.forename: Douglas
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Fleming
authors.forename: Thomas
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Griffin
authors.forename: Jolyon
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Medlock
authors.forename: Steve
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Leach
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D017677:Age Distribution; D000368:Aged; D000998:Antiviral Agents / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D021821:Communicable Diseases, Emerging / Q000188:drug therapy* / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000401:mortality; D004189:Disaster Planning / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D006760:Hospitalization; D006801:Humans; D007251:Influenza, Human / Q000188:drug therapy* / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000401:mortality; D008875:Middle Aged; D009439:Neuraminidase / Q000037:antagonists & inhibitors
chemical_list: D000998:Antiviral Agents; D009439:Neuraminidase