title: Predictive model for congenital muscular torticollis: analysis of 1021 infants with sonography.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To construct a predictive model to foretell congenital muscular torticollis (CMT) on the basis of clinical correlates.
  
  
  METHODS
  Correlation study.
  
  
  METHODS
  Regional hospital.
  
  
  METHODS
  A consecutive series of 1021 newborn infants.
  
  
  METHODS
  Not applicable.
  
  
  METHODS
  Participants underwent portable ultrasonography to diagnose CMT. Significant clinical correlates were identified to construct a predictive model using the logistic regression model.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Forty of 1021 infants were diagnosed with CMT using ultrasonography, yielding an overall incidence of 3.92%. Birth body length (odds ratio [OR]=1.38; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.49-2.38), facial asymmetry (OR=21.75; 95% CI, 6.6-71.7), plagiocephaly (OR=22.3; 95% CI, 7.01-70.95), perineal trauma during delivery (OR=4.26; 95% CI, 1.25-14.52), and primiparity (OR=6.32; 95% CI, 2.34-17.04) were significant correlates. A predictive logistic regression model with the incorporation of these 4 correlates was developed. We used cross-validation with a receiver operating characteristic curve to validate the predictive model.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Our study successfully developed a quantitative predictive model for estimating the risk of CMT on the basis of clinical correlates only. This model has good discriminative ability for classifying CMT and non-CMT by yielding acceptable values of false-negative and false-positive cases.
authors.affiliation: Department of Rehabilitation, Li Shin Hospital, Taoyuan County, Taiwan.
authors.forename: Miao-Ming
authors.initials: MM
authors.lastname: Chen
authors.forename: Huan-Cheng
authors.initials: HC
authors.lastname: Chang
authors.forename: Chuan-Fa
authors.initials: CF
authors.lastname: Hsieh
authors.forename: Ming-Fang
authors.initials: MF
authors.lastname: Yen
authors.forename: Tony Hsui-Hsi
authors.initials: TH
authors.lastname: Chen
mesh_terms: D005260:Female; D019416:Head Movements / Q000502:physiology; D006801:Humans; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D009333:Neck / Q000000981:diagnostic imaging*; D009334:Neck Muscles / Q000000981:diagnostic imaging* / Q000503:physiopathology*; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D012372:ROC Curve; D016059:Range of Motion, Articular / Q000502:physiology; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods; D014103:Torticollis / Q000151:congenital / Q000000981:diagnostic imaging* / Q000503:physiopathology*; D014463:Ultrasonography