title: Model of risk of cortical cataract in the US population with exposure to increased ultraviolet radiation due to stratospheric ozone depletion.
abstract: The authors modeled the possible consequences for US cataract incidence of increases in ultraviolet B radiation due to ozone depletion. Data on the dose-response relation between ocular exposure to ultraviolet B radiation and cortical cataract were derived from a population-based study (the Salisbury Eye Evaluation Project, Salisbury, Maryland) in which extensive data on cataract and ultraviolet radiation were collected in persons aged 65-84 years. Exposure estimates for the US population were derived using estimated ultraviolet radiation fluxes as a function of wavelength. US Census data were used to obtain the age, ethnicity, and sex distribution of the population. Predicted probabilities of cataract were derived from the age-, sex-, and ethnicity-specific ocular ultraviolet exposure data and were modeled under conditions of 5-20% ozone depletion. The analysis indicated that by 2050, the prevalence of cortical cataract will increase above expected levels by 1.3-6.9%. The authors estimate that with 5-20% ozone depletion, there will be 167,000-830,000 additional cases of cortical cataract by 2050. Because of the high prevalence of cataract in older persons, at a 2003 cost of 3,370 dollars per cataract operation, this increase could represent an excess cost of 563 million dollars to 2.8 billion dollars.
authors.affiliation: Dana Center for Preventive Ophthalmology, Wilmer Eye Institute, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD 21287, USA. shwest@jhmi.edu
authors.forename: Sheila K
authors.initials: SK
authors.lastname: West
authors.forename: Janice D
authors.initials: JD
authors.lastname: Longstreth
authors.forename: Beatriz E
authors.initials: BE
authors.lastname: Munoz
authors.forename: Hugh M
authors.initials: HM
authors.lastname: Pitcher
authors.forename: Donald D
authors.initials: DD
authors.lastname: Duncan
mesh_terms: D017677:Age Distribution; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D001272:Atmosphere; D002386:Cataract / Q000453:epidemiology*; D015897:Comorbidity; D004307:Dose-Response Relationship, Radiation; D004781:Environmental Exposure / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D005006:Ethnicity / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D015233:Models, Statistical; D010126:Ozone; D015995:Prevalence; D011832:Radiation Injuries / Q000453:epidemiology*; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods; D012307:Risk Factors; D017678:Sex Distribution; D014466:Ultraviolet Rays; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology
chemical_list: D010126:Ozone