The momentum of mortality change.
Mortality change is not usually assigned much importance as a source of population growth when future population trends are discussed. Yet it can make a significant contribution to population momentum. In populations that have experienced mortality change, cohort survivorship will continue varying for some time even if period mortality rates become constant. This continuing change in cohort survivorship can create a significant degree of mortality-induced population change, a process we call the 'momentum of mortality change'. The momentum of mortality change can be estimated by taking the ratio of e0 (the period life expectancy at birth) to CAL (the cross-sectional average length of life) for a given year. In industrialized nations, the momentum of mortality change can attenuate the negative effect on population growth of declining fertility or sustained below-replacement fertility. In India, where population momentum has a value of 1.436, the momentum of mortality change is the greatest contributor to its value.
Guillot
Michel
M
Center for Demography and Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706, USA. mguillot@ssc.wisc.edu
D019049:Developed Countries; D006801:Humans; D007194:India; D008017:Life Expectancy / Q000639:trends; D009026:Mortality / Q000639:trends*; D011157:Population Dynamics; D011158:Population Growth