Where diseases and networks collide: lessons to be learnt from a study of the 2001 foot-and-mouth disease epidemic.
This paper uses a graph-theoretical approach to investigate the properties of the observed network of disease transmission in the 2001 foot-and-mouth epidemic in the United Kingdom. This analysis revealed both global and local heterogeneity in the contact pattern between the infected premises in the first 3 weeks of the disease. In particular, the global heterogeneity contributed to the failure of the culling strategy imposed by the UK government. However, a more effective strategy targeting selective deletion of key premises in the network was not available once the epidemic had begun. We recommend that post-hoc analyses of this sort should become part of preventative and proactive policy rather than part of a reaction to an ongoing crisis.
Shirley
M D F
MD
Institute for Research on Environment and Sustainability, University of Newcastle, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK. m.d.f.shirley@ncl.ac.uk
Rushton
S P
SP
D000818:Animals; D002417:Cattle; D003140:Communicable Disease Control; D003198:Computer Simulation; D016358:Contact Tracing; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000662:veterinary*; D018562:Disease Transmission, Infectious / Q000662:veterinary*; D005536:Foot-and-Mouth Disease / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission; D007255:Information Services; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D016036:Seroepidemiologic Studies