title: Prognosis and the identification of workers risking disability: research issues and directions for future research.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Screening procedures based on prognostic data are an important prerequisite for prevention of disability due to low-back pain. This paper reviews the research on prognosis to delineate the most pertinent research challenges, and outlines directions for future research to improve the scientific quality and screening accuracy of prognostic efforts.
  
  
  METHODS
  Reviews of prognosis research were examined to identify key methodological and research issues.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Certain issues such as sampling procedures, research designs, data analyses, prognostic indicators, and follow-up procedures limit the value of prior studies. Absence of a clear conceptual framework hampers interpretation of findings and moving research questions forward. The recurrent nature of back pain and the need to effectively include the impact of employer actions and the job market were also identified as significant issues.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Future research will be enhanced by addressing conceptual and definitional issues, applying tested and sensible measures, and careful follow-up of the study population.
authors.affiliation: Department of Behavioral, Social and Legal Sciences-Psychology, Orebro University, Orebro, 701 82, Sweden. steven.linton@bsr.oru.se
authors.forename: Steven J
authors.initials: SJ
authors.lastname: Linton
authors.forename: Doug
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Gross
authors.forename: Izabela Z
authors.initials: IZ
authors.lastname: Schultz
authors.forename: Chris
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Main
authors.forename: Pierre
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Côté
authors.forename: Glenn
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Pransky
authors.forename: William
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Johnson
mesh_terms: D000206:Actuarial Analysis; D004185:Disability Evaluation; D006801:Humans; D017116:Low Back Pain / Q000517:prevention & control* / Q000534:rehabilitation; D008403:Mass Screening; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009784:Occupational Diseases / Q000517:prevention & control* / Q000534:rehabilitation; D011379:Prognosis; D012008:Recurrence; D012107:Research Design; D018570:Risk Assessment; D013997:Time Factors