title: Estimating the probability of a blood donation adverse event based on 1000 interviewed whole-blood donors.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Estimating the probability that a donor will have or not have an adverse event is useful for staff knowledge to give blood donors reassurance upon request.
  
  
  METHODS
  One-thousand donors from the general donor pool were interviewed for seven potential adverse events 3 weeks after a 525-mL whole-blood phlebotomy. The four most common adverse events were bruise (22.7%), sore arm (10.0%), fatigue (7.8%), and donor reaction (7.0%). A stepwise logistic regression analysis was performed based on five donor characteristics that were studied: age, weight, sex, race, and first-time donor status. The contribution of each significant or marginally significant factor to each adverse event was quantified.
  
  
  RESULTS
  For donor reaction, weight (p < 0.0001) and age (p = 0.015) were significant contributors, and first-time donor status (p = 0.054) was a marginally significant contributor. An equation was derived, and the donor reaction rate can be estimated for a group based on the donor's weight, age, and first-time donor status. Similar analyses were performed for fatigue, sore arm, and bruise.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Based on the derived formulas and with the use of a spreadsheet, data can be entered and the probability that a donor will have (or not have) a donor reaction, fatigue, sore arm, or bruise can be estimated.
authors.affiliation: American Red Cross Blood Services, Southeastern Michigan Region, Detroit, 48201, USA. newmanb@usa.redross.org
authors.forename: B H
authors.initials: BH
authors.lastname: Newman
authors.forename: A J
authors.initials: AJ
authors.lastname: Roth
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D001132:Arm / Q000294:innervation; D001782:Blood Donors; D003288:Contusions / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000209:etiology; D005221:Fatigue / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000209:etiology; D005260:Female; D005767:Gastrointestinal Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000209:etiology; D006406:Hematoma / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000209:etiology; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007407:Interviews as Topic; D008297:Male; D010146:Pain / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000209:etiology; D018962:Phlebotomy / Q000009:adverse effects*; D011336:Probability; D012678:Sensation Disorders / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000209:etiology