title: Ecosystem service supply and vulnerability to global change in Europe.
abstract: Global change will alter the supply of ecosystem services that are vital for human well-being. To investigate ecosystem service supply during the 21st century, we used a range of ecosystem models and scenarios of climate and land-use change to conduct a Europe-wide assessment. Large changes in climate and land use typically resulted in large changes in ecosystem service supply. Some of these trends may be positive (for example, increases in forest area and productivity) or offer opportunities (for example, "surplus land" for agricultural extensification and bioenergy production). However, many changes increase vulnerability as a result of a decreasing supply of ecosystem services (for example, declining soil fertility, declining water availability, increasing risk of forest fires), especially in the Mediterranean and mountain regions.
authors.affiliation: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany. dagmar.schroeter@gmail.com
authors.forename: Dagmar
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Schröter
authors.forename: Wolfgang
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Cramer
authors.forename: Rik
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Leemans
authors.forename: I Colin
authors.initials: IC
authors.lastname: Prentice
authors.forename: Miguel B
authors.initials: MB
authors.lastname: Araújo
authors.forename: Nigel W
authors.initials: NW
authors.lastname: Arnell
authors.forename: Alberte
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Bondeau
authors.forename: Harald
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Bugmann
authors.forename: Timothy R
authors.initials: TR
authors.lastname: Carter
authors.forename: Carlos A
authors.initials: CA
authors.lastname: Gracia
authors.forename: Anne C
authors.initials: AC
authors.lastname: de la Vega-Leinert
authors.forename: Markus
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Erhard
authors.forename: Frank
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Ewert
authors.forename: Margaret
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Glendining
authors.forename: Joanna I
authors.initials: JI
authors.lastname: House
authors.forename: Susanna
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Kankaanpää
authors.forename: Richard J T
authors.initials: RJ
authors.lastname: Klein
authors.forename: Sandra
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Lavorel
authors.forename: Marcus
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Lindner
authors.forename: Marc J
authors.initials: MJ
authors.lastname: Metzger
authors.forename: Jeannette
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Meyer
authors.forename: Timothy D
authors.initials: TD
authors.lastname: Mitchell
authors.forename: Isabelle
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Reginster
authors.forename: Mark
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Rounsevell
authors.forename: Santi
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Sabaté
authors.forename: Stephen
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Sitch
authors.forename: Ben
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Smith
authors.forename: Jo
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Smith
authors.forename: Pete
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Smith
authors.forename: Martin T
authors.initials: MT
authors.lastname: Sykes
authors.forename: Kirsten
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Thonicke
authors.forename: Wilfried
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Thuiller
authors.forename: Gill
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Tuck
authors.forename: Sönke
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Zaehle
authors.forename: Bärbel
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Zierl
mesh_terms: D000383:Agriculture; D044822:Biodiversity; D002244:Carbon; D002980:Climate; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources; D018556:Crops, Agricultural; D017753:Ecosystem; D004777:Environment; D005060:Europe; D017752:Greenhouse Effect; D006801:Humans; D015233:Models, Statistical; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D012959:Socioeconomic Factors; D014197:Trees / Q000254:growth & development; D014505:Urban Population; D014881:Water Supply; D014934:Wood
chemical_list: D002244:Carbon