Ecosystem service supply and vulnerability to global change in Europe.
Global change will alter the supply of ecosystem services that are vital for human well-being. To investigate ecosystem service supply during the 21st century, we used a range of ecosystem models and scenarios of climate and land-use change to conduct a Europe-wide assessment. Large changes in climate and land use typically resulted in large changes in ecosystem service supply. Some of these trends may be positive (for example, increases in forest area and productivity) or offer opportunities (for example, "surplus land" for agricultural extensification and bioenergy production). However, many changes increase vulnerability as a result of a decreasing supply of ecosystem services (for example, declining soil fertility, declining water availability, increasing risk of forest fires), especially in the Mediterranean and mountain regions.
Schröter
Dagmar
D
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany. dagmar.schroeter@gmail.com
Cramer
Wolfgang
W
Leemans
Rik
R
Prentice
I Colin
IC
Araújo
Miguel B
MB
Arnell
Nigel W
NW
Bondeau
Alberte
A
Bugmann
Harald
H
Carter
Timothy R
TR
Gracia
Carlos A
CA
de la Vega-Leinert
Anne C
AC
Erhard
Markus
M
Ewert
Frank
F
Glendining
Margaret
M
House
Joanna I
JI
Kankaanpää
Susanna
S
Klein
Richard J T
RJ
Lavorel
Sandra
S
Lindner
Marcus
M
Metzger
Marc J
MJ
Meyer
Jeannette
J
Mitchell
Timothy D
TD
Reginster
Isabelle
I
Rounsevell
Mark
M
Sabaté
Santi
S
Sitch
Stephen
S
Smith
Ben
B
Smith
Jo
J
Smith
Pete
P
Sykes
Martin T
MT
Thonicke
Kirsten
K
Thuiller
Wilfried
W
Tuck
Gill
G
Zaehle
Sönke
S
Zierl
Bärbel
B
D000383:Agriculture; D044822:Biodiversity; D002244:Carbon; D002980:Climate; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources; D018556:Crops, Agricultural; D017753:Ecosystem; D004777:Environment; D005060:Europe; D017752:Greenhouse Effect; D006801:Humans; D015233:Models, Statistical; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D012959:Socioeconomic Factors; D014197:Trees / Q000254:growth & development; D014505:Urban Population; D014881:Water Supply; D014934:Wood
D002244:Carbon