title: A model of contagious bovine pleuropneumonia transmission dynamics in East Africa.
abstract: The dynamics of contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP) transmission vary widely between livestock production systems. This paper describes the development of a homogeneous, stochastic, compartmental model for CBPP transmission in pastoral herds of East Africa. The model was built using parameter estimates based on data published in the literature and on observations of livestock owners obtained through participatory research. The basic reproduction number for CBPP in southern Sudan was estimated to range from 3.2 to 4.6. The homogeneous model indicates that the critical community size for the persistence of CBPP falls within the typical herd sizes for pastoral communities in East Africa suggesting that individual isolated herds are capable of maintaining infection indefinitely. Vaccination alone with currently available vaccines was unlikely to eradicate the disease.
authors.affiliation: RDP Livestock Services, P.O. Box 523, 3700 AM Zeist, The Netherlands. jeffreymariner@yahoo.com
authors.forename: J C
authors.initials: JC
authors.lastname: Mariner
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: McDermott
authors.forename: J A P
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: Heesterbeek
authors.forename: G
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Thomson
authors.forename: S W
authors.initials: SW
authors.lastname: Martin
mesh_terms: D000351:Africa, Eastern; D000818:Animals; D002417:Cattle; D002418:Cattle Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000382:microbiology* / Q000635:transmission*; D003140:Communicable Disease Control / Q000379:methods; D018562:Disease Transmission, Infectious / Q000662:veterinary*; D008954:Models, Biological; D009176:Mycoplasma mycoides / Q000254:growth & development*; D011002:Pleuropneumonia, Contagious / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000382:microbiology / Q000635:transmission*; D012424:Rural Population; D013269:Stochastic Processes