[Study on a grey model for evaluation of Anopheles minimus density].
OBJECTIVE
To establish Anopheles minimus density evaluation model based on climate, environmental and remote sensing data.


METHODS
27 townships in 10 counties of Yunnan Province were chosen as field spots. Data on climate, environment, remote sensing and An. minimus density were collected from 1984 to 1993. Grey correlation analysis was carried out to study the relationship of 18 indices with An. minimus density. E variable was developed and its relation to the An. minimus density was analyzed to establish an evaluation model.


RESULTS
Eight indices were selected based on a grey threshold 0.70: Dry season average temperature > dry season temperature(min) > wet season temperature(min) > wet season NDVI > wet season average temperature > the ratio of paddy field in total arable land > dry season temperature(max) > wet sea son temperature(max). The An. minimus density evaluation model was derived as follows: [formula: see text] The correct rate of evaluation by the model was 92.0%. e0.5 = 18%, with an average relative error of 21%.


CONCLUSIONS
A quasi-evaluation on the An. minimus density can be made by applying the grey model.
Yu
Guo-wei
GW
National Institute of Parasitic diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai 200025, China.
Tang
Lin-hua
LH
D000818:Animals; D000852:Anopheles / Q000254:growth & development*; D002681:China; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011156:Population Density; D012621:Seasons; D013696:Temperature