[Forensic patients in Denmark--2000-2004].
BACKGROUND
In Denmark the number of forensic patients increased exponentially from 1980 to 1999, with an annual growth rate of 6.8%. In 2000 some psychiatric orders became time-limited. This study maps out the development from 2000 to 2004.


METHODS
The material includes forensic patients under supervision by a probation officer. Since 1977, the Department of Prisons and Probation has registered their prevalence and, since 1989, also the incidence and the lifting of previously established orders. The material is representative and has been corrected according to new legislation. The monthly prevalence is analysed 1980-2004, the monthly incidence 1989-2004.


RESULTS
The incidence increased exponentially from 1989 to 1999, with an annual growth rate of 6.2%, the annual growth rate from 2002 to 2004 being 12.8% (p=0.078). The whole period 1989-2004 showed a constantly increasing growth rate (p<0.001). The prevalence decreased from 2000 to 2001, as many orders were lifted due to new legislation. The prevalence in 2002-2004 shows an annual growth rate of 11.0%. The difference between the growth rates of incidence and prevalence 2002-2004 is not significant. Thus the number of forensic patients is now increasing exponentially, with an annual growth rate of 11%


CONCLUSIONS
Increasing criminality among schizophrenic patients has been established in many countries. The main reason is supposed to be deinstitutionalization, which probably applies to Denmark as well. Today forensic patients occupy about 20% of the total number of psychiatric beds in Denmark, and whatever the reasons for the growing number are, this fact, in combination with the decreasing number of available beds, points towards a disastrous development for the mentally ill.
Kramp
Peter
P
Justitsministeriet, Retspsykiatrisk Klinik, og Handelshøjskolen i København, Center for Statistik, København. pk@retspsykiatriskklinik.dk
Gabrielsen
Gorm
G
D003415:Crime; D003718:Denmark / Q000453:epidemiology; D005555:Forensic Psychiatry / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000639:trends*; D006742:Hospital Bed Capacity / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D001523:Mental Disorders / Q000453:epidemiology; D015995:Prevalence; D012559:Schizophrenia / Q000453:epidemiology