title: Forecasting Spanish natural life expectancy.
abstract: Knowledge of trends in life expectancy is of major importance for policy planning. It is also a key indicator for assessing future development of life insurance products, substantiality of existing retirement schemes, and long-term care for the elderly. This article examines the feasibility of decomposing age-gender-specific accidental and natural mortality rates. We study this decomposition by using the Lee and Carter model. In particular, we fit the Poisson log-bilinear version of this model proposed by Wilmoth and Brouhns et al. to historical (1975-1998) Spanish mortality rates. In addition, by using the model introduced by Wilmoth and Valkonen we analyze mortality-gender differentials for accidental and natural rates. We present aggregated life expectancy forecasts compared with those constructed using nondecomposed mortality rates.
authors.affiliation: Departament d'Econometria, Estadistica i Economia Espanyola, Universitat de Barcelona, Diagonal, 690 08034 Barcelona, Spain. mguillen@ub.edu
authors.forename: Montserrat
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Guillen
authors.forename: Antoni
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Vidiella-i-Anguera
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D008017:Life Expectancy / Q000639:trends*; D008297:Male; D015233:Models, Statistical; D009026:Mortality; D012306:Risk; D013030:Spain / Q000453:epidemiology