title: Risk forecasting and evaluating model of environmental pollution accident.
abstract: Environmental risk (ER) factors come from ER source and they are controlled by the primary control mechanism (PCM) of environmental risk, due to the self failures or the effects of external environment risk trigger mechanism, the PCM could not work regularly any more, then, the ER factors will release environmental space, and an ER field is formed up. The forming of ER field does not mean that any environmental pollution accident (EPA) will break out; only the ER receptors are exposed in the ER field and damaged seriously, the potential ER really turns into an actual EPA. Researching on the general laws of evolving from environmental risk to EPA, this paper bring forwards a relevant concept model of risk forecasting and evaluating of EPA. This model provides some scientific methods for risk evaluation, prevention and emergency response of EPA. This model not only enriches and develops the theory system of environment safety and emergency response, but also acts as an instruction for public safety, enterprise' s safety management and emergency response of the accident.
authors.affiliation: School of Environment, State Key Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China. zengwh@bnu.edu.cn
authors.forename: Wei-hu
authors.initials: WH
authors.lastname: Zeng
authors.forename: Sheng-tong
authors.initials: ST
authors.lastname: Cheng
mesh_terms: D000062:Accidents, Occupational; D004777:Environment; D004787:Environmental Pollution / Q000032:analysis* / Q000517:prevention & control*; D005544:Forecasting; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D018570:Risk Assessment