title: Functional approximation and optimal specification of the mechanical risk index.
abstract: The mechanical risk index (MRI) is a numerical measure that quantifies the complexity of drilling a well. The purpose of this article is to examine the role of the component factors of the MRI and its structural and parametric assumptions. A meta-modeling methodology is applied to derive functional expressions of the MRI, and it is shown that the MRI can be approximated in terms of a linear functional. The variation between the MRI measure and its functional specification is determined empirically, and for a reasonable design space, the functional specification is shown to a good approximating representation. A drilling risk index is introduced to quantify the uncertainty in the time and cost associated with drilling a well. A general methodology is outlined to create an optimal MRI specification.
authors.affiliation: Center for Energy Studies, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA 70803, USA. mkaiser@lsu.edu
authors.forename: Mark J
authors.initials: MJ
authors.lastname: Kaiser
authors.forename: Allan G
authors.initials: AG
authors.lastname: Pulsipher