Estimating nursing home bed demand: 20-year projection from administrative data and stakeholder input.
We describe methods to project the requirement for nursing home beds in Manitoba until 2020. Three methods were developed: Trend, Recent Use, and Combined. The first two methods yielded widely divergent projections, differing by 3,400 beds. Stakeholder feedback and theoretical analysis suggested the third (Combined) method, the arithmetic mean of the first two. Model testing found the Combined method to be the most accurate. The projections have been used by RHAs for their planning activities.
De Coster
Carolyn
C
Manitoba Centre for Health Policy.
Frohlich
Norman
N
Dik
Natalia
N
D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D001513:Beds / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D008297:Male; D008350:Manitoba; D008875:Middle Aged; D020380:Needs Assessment; D009735:Nursing Homes