title: Estimating nursing home bed demand: 20-year projection from administrative data and stakeholder input.
abstract: We describe methods to project the requirement for nursing home beds in Manitoba until 2020. Three methods were developed: Trend, Recent Use, and Combined. The first two methods yielded widely divergent projections, differing by 3,400 beds. Stakeholder feedback and theoretical analysis suggested the third (Combined) method, the arithmetic mean of the first two. Model testing found the Combined method to be the most accurate. The projections have been used by RHAs for their planning activities.
authors.affiliation: Manitoba Centre for Health Policy.
authors.forename: Carolyn
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: De Coster
authors.forename: Norman
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Frohlich
authors.forename: Natalia
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Dik
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D001513:Beds / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D008297:Male; D008350:Manitoba; D008875:Middle Aged; D020380:Needs Assessment; D009735:Nursing Homes