title: Prediction of atrial fibrillation after coronary artery bypass grafting: the role of chemoreflex-sensitivity and P wave signal averaged ECG.
abstract: Atrial fibrillation (AF) after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) results in a prolonged hospital stay associated with higher costs. In our study P wave triggered P wave signal averaged ECG and chemoreflex-sensitivity (CHRS) was performed on 101 consecutive patients with sinus rhythm before CABG in order to evaluate the utility of these methods to predict AF. A CHRS below 3.0 ms/mm Hg was predefined as a pathological CHRS. Postoperative AF was observed in 37 (37%) of 101 patients. Patients with AF were older (68.4+/-6.9 vs. 63.8+/-9.4 years, p<0.01), had a longer filtered P-wave duration (FPD) (133.6+/-10.2 vs. 123.6+/-14.9 ms, p<0.0001), a lower root mean square voltage of the last 20 ms of the P wave (RMS 20) (2.86+/-0.88 vs. 5.10+/-2.73 microV, p<0.0001) and a significantly lower CHRS (3.32+/-1.83 vs. 4.17+/-2.19 ms/mm Hg, p<0.05). A cut-off point (COP) of FPD> or =124 ms and RMS 20< or =3.7 microV achieved a specificity of 75%, a sensitivity of 78%, a negative predictive value of 86%, a positive predictive value of 64% and an accuracy of 76% for prediction of AF. The predictive power was lower for a pathological CHRS which achieved a specificity of 63%, a sensitivity of 60%, a negative predictive value of 73%, a positive predictive value of 48% and an accuracy of 61%. A stepwise logistic regression analysis of all preoperative variables identified COP (odds ratio 8.21; 95% CI, 2.02-33.37, p<0.003) as independent predictor. Patients with postoperative AF stayed longer in the intensive care unit (2.9+/-1.7 vs. 1.3+/-0.5 days, p<0.0001) and in hospital (13.5+/-4.3 vs. 11.4+/-1.1 days, p<0.0004). The results of our study show that the risk for AF after CABG could preoperatively be predicted with P wave signal averaged ECG and an analysis of CHRS. The predictive power of the COP could be used for a preoperative risk stratification and a corresponding prophylactic therapy in order to reduce costs.
authors.affiliation: Department of Cardiology, West-German Heart Center, University of Duisburg-Essen, Hufelandstr. 55, D-45122 Essen, Germany. marco.budeus@medizin.uni-essen.de
authors.forename: Marco
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Budeus
authors.forename: Marcus
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Hennersdorf
authors.forename: Shinga
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Röhlen
authors.forename: Stefan
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Schnitzler
authors.forename: Oliver
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Felix
authors.forename: Klaus
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Reimert
authors.forename: Peter
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Feindt
authors.forename: Emmeran
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Gams
authors.forename: Heiner
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Wieneke
authors.forename: Stefan
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Sack
authors.forename: Raimund
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Erbel
authors.forename: Christian
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Perings
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D000704:Analysis of Variance; D001281:Atrial Fibrillation / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000209:etiology / Q000503:physiopathology*; D001341:Autonomic Nervous System / Q000503:physiopathology*; D002628:Chemoreceptor Cells / Q000503:physiopathology*; D001026:Coronary Artery Bypass / Q000009:adverse effects*; D004562:Electrocardiography; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D010100:Oxygen / Q000378:metabolism*; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D012307:Risk Factors; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D012815:Signal Processing, Computer-Assisted
chemical_list: D010100:Oxygen