title: Case Study Part 2: Probabilistic modelling of long-term effects of pesticides on individual breeding success in birds and mammals.
abstract: Long term exposure of skylarks to a fictitious insecticide and of wood mice to a fictitious fungicide were modelled probabilistically in a Monte Carlo simulation. Within the same simulation the consequences of exposure to pesticides on reproductive success were modelled using the toxicity-exposure-linking rules developed by R.S. Bennet et al. (2005) and the interspecies extrapolation factors suggested by R. Luttik et al. (2005). We built models to reflect a range of scenarios and as a result were able to show how exposure to pesticide might alter the number of individuals engaged in any given phase of the breeding cycle at any given time and predict the numbers of new adults at the season's end.
authors.affiliation: Central Science Laboratory, Sand Hutton, York, UK.
authors.forename: W
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Roelofs
authors.forename: D R
authors.initials: DR
authors.lastname: Crocker
authors.forename: R F
authors.initials: RF
authors.lastname: Shore
authors.forename: D R J
authors.initials: DR
authors.lastname: Moore
authors.forename: G C
authors.initials: GC
authors.lastname: Smith
authors.forename: H R
authors.initials: HR
authors.lastname: Akcakaya
authors.forename: R S
authors.initials: RS
authors.lastname: Bennett
authors.forename: P F
authors.initials: PF
authors.lastname: Chapman
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Clook
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Crane
authors.forename: I C
authors.initials: IC
authors.lastname: Dewhurst
authors.forename: P J
authors.initials: PJ
authors.lastname: Edwards
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Fairbrother
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Ferson
authors.forename: D
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Fischer
authors.forename: A D M
authors.initials: AD
authors.lastname: Hart
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Holmes
authors.forename: M J
authors.initials: MJ
authors.lastname: Hooper
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Lavine
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Leopold
authors.forename: R
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Luttik
authors.forename: P
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Mineau
authors.forename: S R
authors.initials: SR
authors.lastname: Mortenson
authors.forename: D G
authors.initials: DG
authors.lastname: Noble
authors.forename: R J
authors.initials: RJ
authors.lastname: O'Connor
authors.forename: R M
authors.initials: RM
authors.lastname: Sibly
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Spendiff
authors.forename: T A
authors.initials: TA
authors.lastname: Springer
authors.forename: H M
authors.initials: HM
authors.lastname: Thompson
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Topping
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D001717:Birds; D004781:Environmental Exposure; D004785:Environmental Pollutants / Q000633:toxicity*; D051379:Mice; D015233:Models, Statistical; D009010:Monte Carlo Method; D010575:Pesticides / Q000633:toxicity*; D012098:Reproduction / Q000187:drug effects*; D018570:Risk Assessment; D013995:Time; D014908:Triticum
chemical_list: D004785:Environmental Pollutants; D010575:Pesticides