title: [Application of phenological pattern recognition in ecological dynamic forecasting].
abstract: This paper described the principles, methods, and procedures of ecological dynamic forecasting by the automation techniques of pattern recognition and mathematical logic judgment on the basis of phenological data and model output maps from T42L9 numerical weather prediction model. This new forecasting method proposed on the basis of modern meteorology and automation techniques enables the classic phenology to apply to a new field ecological forecasting. It enables phenological forecasting to develop from single-station forecasting stage to regional forecasting stage, which is greatly corresponded to the development stage from single station forecasting stage to synoptic stage in weather forecasting, and enables agro-meteorological forecasting to develop from qualitative and statistical forecasting stage to ecological dynamic forecasting stage. With this new qualitative forecasting method, both the predicted objective and predictors are of considerable bio-physical interests. The ecological dynamic forecasting method could be applied to crop sowing, crop growth, irrigation and fertilization, and diseases and pests
authors.affiliation: Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenyang 110016, China. TFPei@iae.ac.cn
authors.forename: Tiefan
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Pei
authors.forename: Changiie
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Jin
mesh_terms: D003198:Computer Simulation; D018556:Crops, Agricultural / Q000254:growth & development*; D017753:Ecosystem; D005544:Forecasting; D010363:Pattern Recognition, Automated / Q000379:methods; D013696:Temperature