Estimation of future mortality from pleural malignant mesothelioma in Japan based on an age-cohort model.
BACKGROUND
Japanese consumption of asbestos increased rapidly after the 1950s and lingered at a high level while the world's consumption decreased substantially after the 1980s. Mesothelioma is due primarily to asbestos, and the number of deaths in Japan is expected to increase in the future.


METHODS
We estimated the future number of pleural mesothelioma deaths among males in Japan using an age-cohort model.


RESULTS
Analyses showed that there would be about 100,000 deaths in Japan due to pleural mesothelioma in the next 40 years. Compared with the statistics in European countries, the ratio of expected death numbers to the population size is remarkably close to linear. The data-point for Japan was slightly lower than that which could be expected from the linear relationship.


CONCLUSIONS
The limited availability of data may result in underestimation. Taking into consideration the consumption pattern of asbestos in recent decades, the incorporation of later cohorts will improve the estimation.
Murayama
Takehiko
T
Division of Multidisciplinary Studies, School of Science and Engineering, Waseda University, Tokyo, Japan.
Takahashi
Ken
K
Natori
Yuji
Y
Kurumatani
Norio
N
D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D001194:Asbestos / Q000633:toxicity*; D015331:Cohort Studies; D005060:Europe / Q000453:epidemiology; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D007564:Japan / Q000453:epidemiology; D008297:Male; D008654:Mesothelioma / Q000209:etiology* / Q000401:mortality; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D009784:Occupational Diseases / Q000209:etiology* / Q000401:mortality; D010997:Pleural Neoplasms / Q000209:etiology* / Q000401:mortality; D013997:Time Factors
D001194:Asbestos