Projections of future numbers of dementia cases in Australia with and without prevention.
OBJECTIVE
To produce projections of the number of dementia cases in Australia from 2000 to 2050. These projections examine the effects of an ageing population on number of dementia cases and also the potential impact of preventive strategies that delay age of dementia onset.


METHODS
Data from several meta-analyses of dementia prevalence and incidence were combined with age-specific population projections to arrive at estimates of future numbers of cases. A statistical model of dementia incidence was developed and used to estimate the effects of delaying onset by up to 5 years.


RESULTS
Without prevention, prevalence of dementia is estimated to increase from 172 000 in 2000 to 588 000 in 2050. Over the same period, the incidence of dementia is estimated to increase from 43 000 to 143 000 new cases a year. Delaying onset by 5 years would decrease prevalence in 2050 by 44%. Even a 6-month delay would reduce prevalence by 6%.


CONCLUSIONS
Ageing of the population will lead to a rapid increase in number of dementia cases and an increasing burden for the working-age population. However, even modest prevention efforts could lessen the impact.
Jorm
Anthony F
AF
Center for Mental Health Research, Australian National University, Canaberra, Australia. anthony.jorm@anu.edu.au
Dear
Keith B G
KB
Burgess
Nicole M
NM
D000367:Age Factors; D017668:Age of Onset; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D001315:Australia / Q000453:epidemiology; D017281:Cost of Illness; D003704:Dementia / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D015201:Meta-Analysis as Topic; D008875:Middle Aged; D011158:Population Growth; D015995:Prevalence; D014480:United Nations / Q000706:statistics & numerical data