The prediction of violence and homicide in young men.
In this prospective study, the authors predicted violence and homicide in 3 representative school samples (N = 1,517). Participants were part of a longitudinal, multiple cohort study on the development of delinquency in boys from late childhood to early adulthood in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Thirty-three participants were convicted of homicide, 193 participants were convicted of serious violence, whereas another 498 participants self-reported serious violence. Predictors of violence included risk factors in the domains of child, family, school, and demographic characteristics. Boys with 4 or more violence risk factors were 6 times more likely to later commit violence in comparison with boys with fewer than 4 risk factors (odds ratio [OR] = 6.05). A subset of risk factors related to violence also predicted homicide among violent offenders. Boys with 4 or more risk factors for homicide were 14 times more likely to later commit homicide than violent individuals with fewer than 4 risk factors (OR = 14.48). Implications for the prevention of violence and homicide are discussed.
Loeber
Rolf
R
Department of Psychiatry, University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine, 15213 PA, USA. loeberr@msx.upmc.edu
Pardini
Dustin
D
Homish
D Lynn
DL
Wei
Evelyn H
EH
Crawford
Anne M
AM
Farrington
David P
DP
Stouthamer-Loeber
Magda
M
Creemers
Judith
J
Koehler
Steven A
SA
Rosenfeld
Richard
R
D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D005544:Forecasting; D006708:Homicide / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D011446:Prospective Studies; D014754:Violence / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*