title: The prediction of violence and homicide in young men.
abstract: In this prospective study, the authors predicted violence and homicide in 3 representative school samples (N = 1,517). Participants were part of a longitudinal, multiple cohort study on the development of delinquency in boys from late childhood to early adulthood in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Thirty-three participants were convicted of homicide, 193 participants were convicted of serious violence, whereas another 498 participants self-reported serious violence. Predictors of violence included risk factors in the domains of child, family, school, and demographic characteristics. Boys with 4 or more violence risk factors were 6 times more likely to later commit violence in comparison with boys with fewer than 4 risk factors (odds ratio [OR] = 6.05). A subset of risk factors related to violence also predicted homicide among violent offenders. Boys with 4 or more risk factors for homicide were 14 times more likely to later commit homicide than violent individuals with fewer than 4 risk factors (OR = 14.48). Implications for the prevention of violence and homicide are discussed.
authors.affiliation: Department of Psychiatry, University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine, 15213 PA, USA. loeberr@msx.upmc.edu
authors.forename: Rolf
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Loeber
authors.forename: Dustin
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Pardini
authors.forename: D Lynn
authors.initials: DL
authors.lastname: Homish
authors.forename: Evelyn H
authors.initials: EH
authors.lastname: Wei
authors.forename: Anne M
authors.initials: AM
authors.lastname: Crawford
authors.forename: David P
authors.initials: DP
authors.lastname: Farrington
authors.forename: Magda
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Stouthamer-Loeber
authors.forename: Judith
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Creemers
authors.forename: Steven A
authors.initials: SA
authors.lastname: Koehler
authors.forename: Richard
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Rosenfeld
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D005544:Forecasting; D006708:Homicide / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D011446:Prospective Studies; D014754:Violence / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*