title: Prediction of distal radius fracture in children, using a biomechanical impact model and case-control data on playground free falls.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To assess the ability of a biomechanical impact model to predict the likelihood of distal radius fracture in children using data gathered for a previous epidemiological case-control study of falls from playground equipment.
  
  
  METHODS
  Factor of Risk (FR) values were generated for each of selected subjects from the case-control study using a biomechanical model. Logistic regression curves were fitted to examine the relationship between the FR values and the probability of radius fracture.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Forty-five cases and thirty-one controls were selected. The logistic regression analyses showed a significant association between the probability of fracture and FR.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The biomechanical model distinguished between children who fractured their distal radius and those who did not. The model can be used to test how risk factors, such as fall height and ground surface type, affect physical stresses transmitted through the arm and their relation to the fracture tolerance of the distal radius.
authors.affiliation: Injury Prevention Research Unit, Department of Preventive and Social Medicine, Dunedin School of Medicine, University of Otago P.O. Box 913, Dunedin, New Zealand. peter.davidson@ipru.otago.ac.nz
authors.forename: Peter L
authors.initials: PL
authors.lastname: Davidson
authors.forename: David J
authors.initials: DJ
authors.lastname: Chalmers
authors.forename: Shaun C
authors.initials: SC
authors.lastname: Stephenson
mesh_terms: D000058:Accidental Falls; D001696:Biomechanical Phenomena; D016022:Case-Control Studies; D002648:Child; D006801:Humans; D016013:Likelihood Functions; D010988:Play and Playthings; D011885:Radius Fractures