Prospective prediction of children's smoking transitions: role of parents' and older siblings' smoking.
OBJECTIVE
To use a novel social epidemic probability model to investigate longitudinally the extent to which parents' and older siblings' smoking predict children's smoking transitions.


METHODS
Parents' and older siblings' smoking status was assessed when children were in 3rd grade (baseline). Three smoking transitions were assessed over the period of child/adolescent smoking acquisition (up to 12th grade): (1) transition from never smoking to trying smoking, (2) transition from trying to monthly smoking and (3) transition from monthly to daily smoking.


METHODS
Forty Washington State school districts participating in the long term Hutchinson Smoking Prevention Project (HSPP).


METHODS
Participants were the 5520 families for whom data on both parents' and older siblings' baseline smoking status, as well as on children's smoking transitions, were available.


RESULTS
The probability that a smoking parent influenced their child to make the first transition to trying smoking was 32% (95% CI: 27%, 36%); to make the second transition from trying to monthly smoking, 15% (95% CI: 10%, 19%); and to make the third transition from monthly to daily smoking, 28% (95% CI: 21%, 34%). The probability that an older sibling influenced a child to make the first transition to trying smoking was 29% (95% CI: 17%, 39%); to make the second transition from trying to monthly smoking, 0% (95% CI: 0%, 8%); and to make the third transition from monthly to daily smoking, 20% (95% CI: 4%, 33%).


CONCLUSIONS
In contrast to previous research, the results provide new evidence suggesting that family smoking influences both initiation and escalation of children's smoking. Results also quantify, in terms of probabilities, the importance of parents' and older siblings' smoking on children's three major smoking transitions. Parents' smoking, as well as older siblings' smoking, are important behaviors to target in preventing adolescents from making smoking transitions.
Bricker
Jonathan B
JB
Cancer Prevention Research Program, Division of Public Sciences, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington 98109-1024, USA. jbricker@fhcrc.org
Peterson
Arthur V
AV
Leroux
Brian G
BG
Andersen
M Robyn
MR
Rajan
K Bharat
KB
Sarason
Irwin G
IG
D000293:Adolescent; D000294:Adolescent Behavior; D000328:Adult; D002648:Child; D002652:Child Behavior; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008960:Models, Psychological; D010290:Parents / Q000523:psychology*; D011336:Probability; D011446:Prospective Studies; D035781:Siblings / Q000523:psychology*; D012907:Smoking / Q000523:psychology*