title: New technique for finding needles in haystacks: geometric approach to distinguishing between a new source and random fluctuations.
abstract: We propose a new test statistic based on a score process for determining the statistical significance of a putative signal that may be a small perturbation to a noisy experimental background. We derive the reference distribution for this score test statistic; it has an elegant geometrical interpretation as well as broad applicability. We illustrate the technique in the context of a model problem from high-energy particle physics. Monte Carlo experimental results confirm that the score test results in a significantly improved rate of signal detection.
authors.affiliation: Department of Statistics, Case Western Reserve University, 10900 Euclid Avenue, Cleveland, Ohio 44106, USA. pilla@case.edu
authors.forename: Ramani S
authors.initials: RS
authors.lastname: Pilla
authors.forename: Catherine
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Loader
authors.forename: Cyrus C
authors.initials: CC
authors.lastname: Taylor