title: Tradeoff between short-term and long-term adaptation in a changing environment.
abstract: We investigate the competition dynamics of two microbial or viral strains that live in an environment that switches periodically between two states. One of the strains is adapted to the long-term environment, but pays a short-term cost, while the other is adapted to the short-term environment and pays a cost in the long term. We explore the tradeoff between these alternative strategies in extensive numerical simulations and present a simple analytic model that can predict the outcome of these competitions as a function of the mutation rate and the time scale of the environmental changes. Our model is relevant for arboviruses, which alternate between different host species on a regular basis.
authors.affiliation: Digital Life Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California 91125, USA.
authors.forename: Robert
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Forster
authors.forename: Claus O
authors.initials: CO
authors.lastname: Wilke
mesh_terms: D000222:Adaptation, Physiological / Q000235:genetics*; D001419:Bacteria / Q000235:genetics*; D005075:Biological Evolution; D003198:Computer Simulation; D017753:Ecosystem; D005828:Genetics, Population; D008957:Models, Genetic; D009154:Mutation; D011157:Population Dynamics; D012641:Selection, Genetic; D013045:Species Specificity; D013997:Time Factors; D014780:Viruses / Q000235:genetics*