title: Bayesian error estimation in density-functional theory.
abstract: We present a practical scheme for performing error estimates for density-functional theory calculations. The approach, which is based on ideas from Bayesian statistics, involves creating an ensemble of exchange-correlation functionals by comparing with an experimental database of binding energies for molecules and solids. Fluctuations within the ensemble can then be used to estimate errors relative to experiment on calculated quantities such as binding energies, bond lengths, and vibrational frequencies. It is demonstrated that the error bars on energy differences may vary by orders of magnitude for different systems in good agreement with existing experience.
authors.affiliation: CAMP and Department of Physics, Technical University of Denmark, DK-2800 Lyngby, Denmark.
authors.forename: J J
authors.initials: JJ
authors.lastname: Mortensen
authors.forename: K
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Kaasbjerg
authors.forename: S L
authors.initials: SL
authors.lastname: Frederiksen
authors.forename: J K
authors.initials: JK
authors.lastname: Nørskov
authors.forename: J P
authors.initials: JP
authors.lastname: Sethna
authors.forename: K W
authors.initials: KW
authors.lastname: Jacobsen
mesh_terms: D001499:Bayes Theorem; D008954:Models, Biological; D008956:Models, Chemical