title: Probabilistic prediction of climate using multi-model ensembles: from basics to applications.
abstract: The development of multi-model ensembles for reliable predictions of inter-annual climate fluctuations and climate change, and their application to health, agronomy and water management, are discussed.
authors.affiliation: ECMWF, Shinfield Park, Reading RG2 9AX, UK. tim.palmer@ecmwf.int
authors.forename: T N
authors.initials: TN
authors.lastname: Palmer
authors.forename: F J
authors.initials: FJ
authors.lastname: Doblas-Reyes
authors.forename: R
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Hagedorn
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Weisheimer
mesh_terms: D002980:Climate; D004777:Environment; D005544:Forecasting / Q000379:methods*; D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011336:Probability