Identification of prognostic factors associated with early mortality after surgical resection for pancreatic cancer--under-analysis of cumulative survival curve.
BACKGROUND
The cumulative survival curve after surgery for advanced pancreatic cancer is characterized by a steep downward slope in the early postoperative period. The aim of this investigation was to identify the characteristics associated with early mortality in patients undergoing pancreatic resection for pancreatic cancer.


METHODS
Thirty-seven patients with extended radical pancreatectomy combined with intraoperative radiation therapy were studied. The cumulative survival curve in this series was depicted using the Kaplan-Meier method. Assuming that there were two distinct survival curves, below and above the breakpoint, each part of the curve was modeled as an exponential distribution. Three parameters, the breakpoint, the high hazard rate below the breakpoint, and the low hazard rate above the breakpoint were estimated by the maximum likelihood method. Prognostic factors associated with early mortality after surgery were evaluated using univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analyses.


RESULTS
The breakpoint of the survival curve was estimated at 41 months. The short-survival group (SSG) was defined as deceased earlier than 41 months after surgery, and included 31 patients (83.8 %). The long-survival patient group (LSG) consisted of 6 patients who were alive more than 41 months after surgery. Eighteen SSG patients (58.1 %) died of hepatic metastases, whereas no LSG patients died of hepatic metastases. Abdominal pain and/or back pain during clinical course was identified by multivariate analysis as a prognostic factor for patients undergoing pancreatic resection.


CONCLUSIONS
The high hazard rate in the early postoperative period was closely linked with death due to liver metastases. The preoperative presence of local pain was a prognostic factor associated with early mortality.
Takamori
Hiroshi
H
Department of Gastroenterological Surgery, Graduate School of Medical Sciences, Kumamoto University, 1-1-1 Honjo, Kumamoto, 860-8556, Japan. h-takamori@fc.kuh.kumamoto-u.ac.jp
Hiraoka
Takehisa
T
Kanemitsu
Keiichiro
K
Tsuji
Tatsuya
T
Hamada
Chikuma
C
Baba
Hideo
H
D000230:Adenocarcinoma / Q000401:mortality* / Q000473:pathology / Q000601:surgery*; D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D000704:Analysis of Variance; D002423:Cause of Death; D015331:Cohort Studies; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009367:Neoplasm Staging; D010180:Pancreatectomy / Q000009:adverse effects / Q000379:methods*; D010190:Pancreatic Neoplasms / Q000401:mortality* / Q000473:pathology / Q000601:surgery*; D011183:Postoperative Complications / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology; D011184:Postoperative Period; D011336:Probability; D011379:Prognosis; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012737:Sex Factors; D016019:Survival Analysis