title: The New England Air Quality Forecasting Pilot Program: development of an evaluation protocol and performance benchmark.
abstract: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recently sponsored the New England Forecasting Pilot Program to serve as a "test bed" for chemical forecasting by providing all of the elements of a National Air Quality Forecasting System, including the development and implementation of an evaluation protocol. This Pilot Program enlisted three regional-scale air quality models, serving as prototypes, to forecast ozone (O3) concentrations across the northeastern United States during the summer of 2002. A suite of statistical metrics was identified as part of the protocol that facilitated evaluation of both discrete forecasts (observed versus modeled concentrations) and categorical forecasts (observed versus modeled exceedances/nonexceedances) for both the maximum 1-hr (125 ppb) and 8-hr (85 ppb) forecasts produced by each of the models. Implementation of the evaluation protocol took place during a 25-day period (August 5-29), utilizing hourly O3 concentration data obtained from over 450 monitors from the U.S. Environment Protection Agency's Air Quality System network.
authors.affiliation: Atmospheric Sciences Modeling Division, Air Resources Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711, USA.
authors.forename: Daiwen
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Kang
authors.forename: Brian K
authors.initials: BK
authors.lastname: Eder
authors.forename: Ariel F
authors.initials: AF
authors.lastname: Stein
authors.forename: Georg A
authors.initials: GA
authors.lastname: Grell
authors.forename: Steven E
authors.initials: SE
authors.lastname: Peckham
authors.forename: John
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: McHenry
mesh_terms: D000397:Air Pollution; D004784:Environmental Monitoring; D005069:Evaluation Studies as Topic; D005544:Forecasting; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009511:New England; D010083:Oxidants, Photochemical / Q000032:analysis; D010126:Ozone / Q000032:analysis; D010865:Pilot Projects
chemical_list: D010083:Oxidants, Photochemical; D010126:Ozone