title: Widespread amphibian extinctions from epidemic disease driven by global warming.
abstract: As the Earth warms, many species are likely to disappear, often because of changing disease dynamics. Here we show that a recent mass extinction associated with pathogen outbreaks is tied to global warming. Seventeen years ago, in the mountains of Costa Rica, the Monteverde harlequin frog (Atelopus sp.) vanished along with the golden toad (Bufo periglenes). An estimated 67% of the 110 or so species of Atelopus, which are endemic to the American tropics, have met the same fate, and a pathogenic chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis) is implicated. Analysing the timing of losses in relation to changes in sea surface and air temperatures, we conclude with 'very high confidence' (> 99%, following the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC) that large-scale warming is a key factor in the disappearances. We propose that temperatures at many highland localities are shifting towards the growth optimum of Batrachochytrium, thus encouraging outbreaks. With climate change promoting infectious disease and eroding biodiversity, the urgency of reducing greenhouse-gas concentrations is now undeniable.
authors.affiliation: Golden Toad Laboratory for Conservation, Monteverde Cloud Forest Preserve and Tropical Science Center, Santa Elena, Puntarenas 5655-73, Costa Rica. goldtoad@racsa.co.cr
authors.forename: J Alan
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: Pounds
authors.forename: Martín R
authors.initials: MR
authors.lastname: Bustamante
authors.forename: Luis A
authors.initials: LA
authors.lastname: Coloma
authors.forename: Jamie A
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: Consuegra
authors.forename: Michael P L
authors.initials: MP
authors.lastname: Fogden
authors.forename: Pru N
authors.initials: PN
authors.lastname: Foster
authors.forename: Enrique
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: La Marca
authors.forename: Karen L
authors.initials: KL
authors.lastname: Masters
authors.forename: Andrés
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Merino-Viteri
authors.forename: Robert
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Puschendorf
authors.forename: Santiago R
authors.initials: SR
authors.lastname: Ron
authors.forename: G Arturo
authors.initials: GA
authors.lastname: Sánchez-Azofeifa
authors.forename: Christopher J
authors.initials: CJ
authors.lastname: Still
authors.forename: Bruce E
authors.initials: BE
authors.lastname: Young
mesh_terms: D000531:Altitude; D000663:Amphibians / Q000382:microbiology* / Q000502:physiology*; D000818:Animals; D044822:Biodiversity; D002025:Bufonidae / Q000382:microbiology / Q000502:physiology; D003364:Costa Rica; D017752:Greenhouse Effect; D006813:Humidity; D008954:Models, Biological; D011157:Population Dynamics; D012306:Risk; D013696:Temperature; D014197:Trees / Q000502:physiology