Topographic determinants of foot and mouth disease transmission in the UK 2001 epidemic.
BACKGROUND
A key challenge for modelling infectious disease dynamics is to understand the spatial spread of infection in real landscapes. This ideally requires a parallel record of spatial epidemic spread and a detailed map of susceptible host density along with relevant transport links and geographical features.


RESULTS
Here we analyse the most detailed such data to date arising from the UK 2001 foot and mouth epidemic. We show that Euclidean distance between infectious and susceptible premises is a better predictor of transmission risk than shortest and quickest routes via road, except where major geographical features intervene.


CONCLUSIONS
Thus, a simple spatial transmission kernel based on Euclidean distance suffices in most regions, probably reflecting the multiplicity of transmission routes during the epidemic.
Savill
Nicholas J
NJ
Statistical Laboratory, Centre for Mathematical Sciences, University of Cambridge, Wilberforce Road, Cambridge, CB3 0WB, UK. njs@zoo.cam.ac.uk
Shaw
Darren J
DJ
Deardon
Rob
R
Tildesley
Michael J
MJ
Keeling
Matthew J
MJ
Woolhouse
Mark E J
ME
Brooks
Stephen P
SP
Grenfell
Bryan T
BT
D000818:Animals; D003198:Computer Simulation; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000662:veterinary*; D005536:Foot-and-Mouth Disease / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission*; D008954:Models, Biological; D012306:Risk; D006113:United Kingdom / Q000453:epidemiology