Predicting recurrence and progression in individual patients with stage Ta T1 bladder cancer using EORTC risk tables: a combined analysis of 2596 patients from seven EORTC trials.
OBJECTIVE
To provide tables that allow urologists to easily calculate a superficial bladder cancer patient's short- and long-term risks of recurrence and progression after transurethral resection.


METHODS
A combined analysis was carried out of individual patient data from 2596 superficial bladder cancer patients included in seven European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer trials.


RESULTS
A simple scoring system was derived based on six clinical and pathological factors: number of tumors, tumor size, prior recurrence rate, T category, carcinoma in situ, and grade. The probabilities of recurrence and progression at one year ranged from 15% to 61% and from less than 1% to 17%, respectively. At five years, the probabilities of recurrence and progression ranged from 31% to 78% and from less than 1% to 45%.


CONCLUSIONS
With these probabilities, the urologist can discuss the different options with the patient to determine the most appropriate treatment and frequency of follow-up.
Sylvester
Richard J
RJ
EORTC Data Center, Brussels, Belgium. richard.sylvester@eortc.be
van der Meijden
Adrian P M
AP
Oosterlinck
Willem
W
Witjes
J Alfred
JA
Bouffioux
Christian
C
Denis
Louis
L
Newling
Donald W W
DW
Kurth
Karlheinz
K
D000368:Aged; D002986:Clinical Trials as Topic; D003661:Decision Support Techniques; D018450:Disease Progression; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D009364:Neoplasm Recurrence, Local / Q000473:pathology*; D011379:Prognosis; D012307:Risk Factors; D013223:Statistics as Topic; D013997:Time Factors; D001749:Urinary Bladder Neoplasms / Q000473:pathology* / Q000628:therapy; D013520:Urologic Surgical Procedures