Prediction of success in the first-year exam in the study of medicine--a prospective survey.
OBJECTIVE
To identify predictors of students' success in the first-year exam in a new curriculum in the study of medicine in Vienna.


METHODS
We tested 11 topics (including socio-demographic variables, family background, school performance, economic situation, living conditions, social integration and health, learning capacity, study motivation and ability to cope with stress) for their relevance in terms of study success in a prospective study of an unselected student sample. Data were collected from questionnaires filled in by 674 first-year students (50.8% of the total number of 1327 new students) who enrolled in the academic year 2002/03.


RESULTS
Comparison of students who passed the first-year exam with students who failed identified four predictors: male sex, German mother tongue, performance in secondary school and learning capacity.


CONCLUSIONS
The new curriculum exerted subliminal selectivity; the predictive powers of school marks and subjective learning capacity were confirmed; the influence of a student's sex should be investigated further; the influence of mother tongue requires modification of pre-study courses for foreign students.
Haidinger
Gerald
G
Department of Epidemiology, Center for Public Health, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria. gerald.haidinger@meduniwien.ac.at
Frischenschlager
Oskar
O
Mitterauer
Lukas
L
D017677:Age Distribution; D001317:Austria; D003479:Curriculum; D004501:Education, Medical / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D004521:Educational Measurement / Q000379:methods*; D004522:Educational Status; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D017678:Sex Distribution; D013223:Statistics as Topic; D013337:Students, Medical / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D011795:Surveys and Questionnaires