title: Predicting recurrence and progression in individual patients with stage Ta T1 bladder cancer using EORTC risk tables: a combined analysis of 2596 patients from seven EORTC trials.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To provide tables that allow urologists to easily calculate a superficial bladder cancer patient's short- and long-term risks of recurrence and progression after transurethral resection.
  
  
  METHODS
  A combined analysis was carried out of individual patient data from 2596 superficial bladder cancer patients included in seven European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer trials.
  
  
  RESULTS
  A simple scoring system was derived based on six clinical and pathological factors: number of tumors, tumor size, prior recurrence rate, T category, carcinoma in situ, and grade. The probabilities of recurrence and progression at one year ranged from 15% to 61% and from less than 1% to 17%, respectively. At five years, the probabilities of recurrence and progression ranged from 31% to 78% and from less than 1% to 45%.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  With these probabilities, the urologist can discuss the different options with the patient to determine the most appropriate treatment and frequency of follow-up.
authors.affiliation: EORTC Data Center, Brussels, Belgium. richard.sylvester@eortc.be
authors.forename: Richard J
authors.initials: RJ
authors.lastname: Sylvester
authors.forename: Adrian P M
authors.initials: AP
authors.lastname: van der Meijden
authors.forename: Willem
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Oosterlinck
authors.forename: J Alfred
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: Witjes
authors.forename: Christian
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Bouffioux
authors.forename: Louis
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Denis
authors.forename: Donald W W
authors.initials: DW
authors.lastname: Newling
authors.forename: Karlheinz
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Kurth
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D002986:Clinical Trials as Topic; D003661:Decision Support Techniques; D018450:Disease Progression; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D009364:Neoplasm Recurrence, Local / Q000473:pathology*; D011379:Prognosis; D012307:Risk Factors; D013223:Statistics as Topic; D013997:Time Factors; D001749:Urinary Bladder Neoplasms / Q000473:pathology* / Q000628:therapy; D013520:Urologic Surgical Procedures