Do retinopathy signs in non-diabetic individuals predict the subsequent risk of diabetes?
OBJECTIVE
Isolated retinopathy signs are common in non-diabetic individuals and have been shown to be associated with impaired glucose metabolism. In a cohort of people without diabetes, the association of these retinopathy signs and subsequent development of diabetes were examined.


METHODS
A population based cohort study of 7992 people aged 49-73 years without diabetes was conducted. Retinal photographs of these participants were evaluated for the presence of retinopathy signs according to a standardised protocol. Incident cases of diabetes were identified prospectively.


RESULTS
After a follow up of 3 years, 291 (3.6%) people developed incident diabetes. In the total cohort, retinopathy was not significantly associated with incident diabetes (4.7% v 3.6%, multivariable adjusted odds ratio (OR) 1.1, 95% confidence intervals (CI), 0.7 to 1.9). However, among participants with a positive family history of diabetes, retinopathy was associated with incident diabetes (10.4% v 4.8%, multivariable adjusted OR 2.3, 95% CI, 1.0 to 5.3). Among participants without a family history of diabetes, retinopathy was not associated with incident diabetes


CONCLUSIONS
In individuals with a family history of diabetes, retinopathy signs predict subsequent risk of clinical diabetes.
Retinal Vascular Imaging Centre, Centre for Eye Research Australia, Univeristy of Melbourne, 32 Gisborne Street, VIC 3002, Australia. twong@unimelb.edu.au
T Y
TY
Wong
Q
Q
Mohamed
R
R
Klein
D J
DJ
Couper
D000368:Aged; D001786:Blood Glucose / Q000378:metabolism; D003924:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / Q000150:complications* / Q000235:genetics; D003930:Diabetic Retinopathy / Q000097:blood / Q000150:complications*; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011379:Prognosis; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors
D001786:Blood Glucose