A scoring system for ascertainment of incident stroke; the Risk Index Score (RISc).
OBJECTIVE
The main objective of this study was to develop and validate a computer-based statistical algorithm that could be translated into a simple scoring system in order to ascertain incident stroke cases using hospital admission medical records data.


METHODS
The Risk Index Score (RISc) algorithm was developed using data collected prospectively by the Brain Attack Surveillance in Corpus Christi (BASIC) project, 2000. The validity of RISc was evaluated by estimating the concordance of scoring system stroke ascertainment to stroke ascertainment by physician and/or abstractor review of hospital admission records.


RESULTS
RISc was developed on 1718 randomly selected patients (training set) and then statistically validated on an independent sample of 858 patients (validation set). A multivariable logistic model was used to develop RISc and subsequently evaluated by goodness-of-fit and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses. The higher the value of RISc, the higher the patient's risk of potential stroke. The study showed RISc was well calibrated and discriminated those who had potential stroke from those that did not on initial screening.


CONCLUSIONS
In this study we developed and validated a rapid, easy, efficient, and accurate method to ascertain incident stroke cases from routine hospital admission records for epidemiologic investigations. Validation of this scoring system was achieved statistically; however, clinical validation in a community hospital setting is warranted.
Department of Biostatistics, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, 3375 NE Expressway, Koger Center/Harvard Building, Atlanta, GA 30341, USA. tkassho@emory.edu
T A
TA
Kass-Hout
L A
LA
Moyé
M A
MA
Smith
L B
LB
Morgenstern
D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D000465:Algorithms; D003201:Computers; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D007297:Inpatients; D008297:Male; D008485:Medical Audit; D011446:Prospective Studies; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods; D020521:Stroke / Q000453:epidemiology*; D013781:Texas / Q000453:epidemiology