Interpersonal comparison of subjective probabilities: toward translating linguistic probabilities.
Interpersonal variability in understanding linguistic probabilities can adversely affect decision making. Using the fact that everyone judges canonical probability events similarly in a manner consistent with axiom systems that yield a probability measure, we developed and tested a method for comparing the meanings of probability phrases across individuals. An experiment demonstrated that despite extreme heterogeneity in participants' linguistic probability lexicons, interpersonal similarity in phrase meaning is well predicted by phrase rank order within the lexicons. Thus, equally ranked phrases have similar meanings, and individual differences in linguistic probabilities may simply be explained by the phrases people use at each rank.
University of Cambridge, Institute of Criminology, Faculty of Law, England. mkd25@cam.ac.uk
Mandeep K
MK
Dhami
Thomas S
TS
Wallsten
D003657:Decision Making; D006801:Humans; D008037:Linguistics / Q000379:methods*; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011338:Probability Theory