Do retinopathy signs in non-diabetic individuals predict the subsequent risk of diabetes?
OBJECTIVE
Isolated retinopathy signs are common in non-diabetic individuals and have been shown to be associated with impaired glucose metabolism. In a cohort of people without diabetes, the association of these retinopathy signs and subsequent development of diabetes were examined.


METHODS
A population based cohort study of 7992 people aged 49-73 years without diabetes was conducted. Retinal photographs of these participants were evaluated for the presence of retinopathy signs according to a standardised protocol. Incident cases of diabetes were identified prospectively.


RESULTS
After a follow up of 3 years, 291 (3.6%) people developed incident diabetes. In the total cohort, retinopathy was not significantly associated with incident diabetes (4.7% v 3.6%, multivariable adjusted odds ratio (OR) 1.1, 95% confidence intervals (CI), 0.7 to 1.9). However, among participants with a positive family history of diabetes, retinopathy was associated with incident diabetes (10.4% v 4.8%, multivariable adjusted OR 2.3, 95% CI, 1.0 to 5.3). Among participants without a family history of diabetes, retinopathy was not associated with incident diabetes


CONCLUSIONS
In individuals with a family history of diabetes, retinopathy signs predict subsequent risk of clinical diabetes.
Wong
T Y
TY
Retinal Vascular Imaging Centre, Centre for Eye Research Australia, Univeristy of Melbourne, 32 Gisborne Street, VIC 3002, Australia. twong@unimelb.edu.au
Mohamed
Q
Q
Klein
R
R
Couper
D J
DJ
D000368:Aged; D001786:Blood Glucose / Q000378:metabolism; D003924:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / Q000150:complications* / Q000235:genetics; D003930:Diabetic Retinopathy / Q000097:blood / Q000150:complications*; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011379:Prognosis; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors
D001786:Blood Glucose