An evaluation of the actual incidence of tuberculosis in French Guiana using a capture-recapture model.
In order to estimate the level of under-reporting and to improve estimates of the incidence of tuberculosis (TB) in the vicinity of Cayenne, French Guiana, we performed capture-recapture analysis from 1996 through 2003. We cross-linked data from the Institut Pasteur, the Département d'Information Médicale of Cayenne Hospital, and the Service de Lutte Anti-Tuberculeuse. The estimate of 381 TB cases obtained after matching those three sources was revised to 425 (95% confidence interval: 407, 453) using the capture-recapture model based on sample coverage. The corresponding average annual incidence was 63.1 TB cases per 100,000 population. The evaluated sensitivity of the compulsory notification system was 35.3%, indicating wide under-notification of TB in the vicinity of Cayenne. The estimated coverage reported by the three sources was fairly accurate (i.e. 85.9%), but not sufficient to evaluate the risk of transmission of TB in the Ile-de-Cayenne (Cayenne and its suburbs).
Guernier
Vanina
V
UMR 2724 IRD-CNRS, Génétique et Evolution des Maladies Infectieuses, Equipe Evolution des Systèmes Symbiotiques, 911 avenue Agropolis, BP 64501, 34394 Montpellier cedex 05, France. guernier@mpl.ird.fr
Guégan
Jean-François
JF
Deparis
Xavier
X
D018563:Disease Notification; D005616:French Guiana / Q000453:epidemiology; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D011159:Population Surveillance / Q000379:methods*; D014397:Tuberculosis, Pulmonary / Q000453:epidemiology*