Chaotic desynchronization of multistrain diseases.
Multistrain diseases are diseases that consist of several strains, or serotypes. The serotypes may interact by antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE), in which infection with a single serotype is asymptomatic, but infection with a second serotype leads to serious illness accompanied by greater infectivity. It has been observed from serotype data of dengue hemorrhagic fever that outbreaks of the four serotypes occur asynchronously. Both autonomous and seasonally driven outbreaks were studied in a model containing ADE. For sufficiently small ADE, the number of infectives of each serotype synchronizes, with outbreaks occurring in phase. When the ADE increases past a threshold, the system becomes chaotic, and infectives of each serotype desynchronize. However, certain groupings of the primary and secondary infectives remain synchronized even in the chaotic regime.
U.S. Naval Research Laboratory, Code 6792, Nonlinear Systems Dynamics Section, Plasma Physics Division, Washington, DC 20375, USA.
Ira B
IB
Schwartz
Leah B
LB
Shaw
Derek A T
DA
Cummings
Lora
L
Billings
Marie
M
McCrary
Donald S
DS
Burke
D000818:Animals; D000914:Antibodies, Viral; D019067:Antibody-Dependent Enhancement; D003716:Dengue Virus / Q000378:metabolism; D006801:Humans; D015233:Models, Statistical; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009500:Neutralization Tests; D017711:Nonlinear Dynamics; D009991:Oscillometry; D012621:Seasons; D019595:Severe Dengue / Q000097:blood* / Q000175:diagnosis*; D013997:Time Factors; D014777:Virus Diseases / Q000175:diagnosis*
D000914:Antibodies, Viral