The effect of climate variation on agro-pastoral production in Africa.
Using national crop and livestock production records from 1961-2003 and satellite-derived data on pasture greenness from 1982-2003 we show that the productivity of crops, livestock, and pastures in Africa is predictably associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation. The causal relations of these results are partly understandable through the associations between the atmospheric fluctuations and African rainfall. The range of the explained among-year variation in crop production in Africa as a whole corresponds to the nutritional requirements for approximately 20 million people. Results suggest reduced African food production if the global climate changes toward more El Niño-like conditions, as most climate models predict. Maize production in southern Africa is most strongly affected by El Niño events. Management measures include annual changes in crop selection and storage strategies in response to El Niño Southern Oscillation-based and North Atlantic Oscillation-based predictions for the next growing season.
Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis, Department of Biology, University of Oslo, Norway.
Leif Christian
LC
Stige
Jørn
J
Stave
Kung-Sik
KS
Chan
Lorenzo
L
Ciannelli
Nathalie
N
Pettorelli
Michael
M
Glantz
Hans R
HR
Herren
Nils Chr
NC
Stenseth
D000349:Africa; D000383:Agriculture; D002980:Climate; D018556:Crops, Agricultural / Q000254:growth & development*; D013997:Time Factors