title: Development and validation of a prognostic model to predict recovery following intracerebral hemorrhage.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  While several models have been developed to predict mortality following intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), the functional outcome and its predictors in surviving patients have been poorly investigated so far.
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  To identify predictors and validate a prognostic model for independent functional outcome in patients with acute ICH.
  
  
  METHODS
  An inception cohort was assessed on the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIH-SS) at admission and followed-up after 100 days.
  
  
  METHODS
  11 neurological departments with an acute stroke unit.
  
  
  METHODS
  207 consecutive patients who were neither comatose nor intubated at admission within 6 hours after ICH and with complete follow-up.
  
  
  RESULTS
  After 100 days, 40 patients (19.3 %) had died, 78 (37.7%) had regained functional independence (Barthel Index > or = 95) and 89 (43%) had survived but not recovered. In these patients, age and the NIH-SS total score were identified as independent predictors for functional independence after 100 days. With the predefined cut-off value, the prognosis of 79.8% of all patients could be predicted accurately upon validation in an independent data set of 173 non-comatose patients with acute ICH.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Our study provides a validated prognostic model for prediction of complete recovery following ICH which could be very useful for the design of clinical studies.
authors.affiliation: Department of Neurology, University of Duisburg-Essen, Hufelandstrasse 55, 45122 Essen, Germany. stroke.med@uni-essen.de
authors.forename: Christian
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Weimar
authors.forename: Michael
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Roth
authors.forename: Vera
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Willig
authors.forename: Panagiotis
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Kostopoulos
authors.forename: Jens
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Benemann
authors.forename: Hans-Christoph
authors.initials: HC
authors.lastname: Diener
mesh_terms: D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D002543:Cerebral Hemorrhage / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000401:mortality / Q000503:physiopathology*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008954:Models, Biological; D009460:Neurologic Examination / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011379:Prognosis; D020127:Recovery of Function / Q000502:physiology*; D012044:Regression Analysis; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D016019:Survival Analysis