title: Trend in the prevalence of the metabolic syndrome and its impact on cardiovascular disease incidence: the San Antonio Heart Study.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  With the current obesity epidemic, one would expect a prevalence increase in the metabolic syndrome. Therefore, in the San Antonio Heart Study, a population-based study with worsening obesity, we examined the metabolic syndrome and its effect on incident cardiovascular disease (CVD).
  
  
  METHODS
  We enrolled 5,158 subjects in two cohorts: 1979-1982 and 1984-1988. We reexamined 3,682 (71.4%) subjects in 1987-1990 (cohort 1) and 1991-1996 (cohort 2) and assessed a 7.5-year incidence of CVD in 4,635 (90.0%) participants. We used the metabolic syndrome definition of the National Cholesterol Education Program-Adult Treatment Panel III.
  
  
  RESULTS
  At baseline, the metabolic syndrome was less prevalent in cohort 1 than in cohort 2: in men, 20.4 vs. 29.3% (P < 0.001); in women, 16.3 vs. 26.3% (P < 0.001). The prevalence increased in men and women of both Mexican-American and non-Hispanic white ethnic groups between 1979-1982 and 1991-1996 (P for trend <0.001 for each of the groups). There was an excess of incident CVD in cohort 2 relative to cohort 1 (odds ratio 1.37 [95% CI 1.02-1.84]) after adjustment for age, sex, ethnic origin, socioeconomic status, history of CVD, diabetes, total cholesterol, smoking, and family history of heart attack. Further adjustment for the metabolic syndrome reduced this difference (1.26 [0.93-1.71]) because the metabolic syndrome predicted incident CVD (1.58 [1.14-2.18]).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  In San Antonio, Texas, an increase in the prevalence of the metabolic syndrome between 1979-1982 and 1984-1988 contributes to explain a higher CVD incidence.
authors.affiliation: Department of Medicine, Division of Clinical Epidemiology, University of Texas Health Science Center at San Antonio, 7703 Floyd Curl Drive, San Antonio, TX 78284-7873, USA. lorenzo@uthscsa.edu
authors.forename: Carlos
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Lorenzo
authors.forename: Ken
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Williams
authors.forename: Kelly J
authors.initials: KJ
authors.lastname: Hunt
authors.forename: Steven M
authors.initials: SM
authors.lastname: Haffner
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D002318:Cardiovascular Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology*; D015331:Cohort Studies; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D024821:Metabolic Syndrome / Q000453:epidemiology*; D017058:Mexican Americans / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D008875:Middle Aged; D015995:Prevalence; D013781:Texas / Q000453:epidemiology