Cardiovascular disease risk assessment in older women: can we improve on Framingham? British Women's Heart and Health prospective cohort study.
OBJECTIVE
To develop a cardiovascular risk assessment tool that is feasible and easy to use in primary care (general practice (GP) model).


METHODS
Prospective cohort study.


METHODS
23 towns in the United Kingdom.


METHODS
3582 women aged 60 to 79 years who were free of coronary heart disease (CHD) at entry into the British Women's Heart and Health Study.


METHODS
Predictive performance of a GP model compared with the standard Framingham model for both CHD and cardiovascular disease (CVD).


RESULTS
The Framingham tool predicted CHD events over 5 years accurately (predicted 5.7%, observed 5.5%) but overpredicted CVD events (predicted 10.5%, observed 6.8%). In higher-risk groups, Framingham overpredicted both CHD and CVD events and was poorly calibrated for this cohort. Including C-reactive protein and fibrinogen with standard Framingham risk factors did not improve discrimination of the model. The GP model, which used age, systolic blood pressure, smoking habit and self-rated health (all of which can be easily obtained in one surgery visit) performed as well as the Framingham risk tool: area under the receiver operating curve discrimination statistic was 0.66 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.62 to 0.70) for CHD and 0.67 (95% CI 0.64 to 0.71) for CVD compared with 0.65 (95% CI 0.61 to 0.68) and 0.66 (95% CI 0.62 to 0.69) for the corresponding Framingham models.


CONCLUSIONS
An alternative risk assessment based on only a simple routine examination and a small number of pertinent questions may be more useful in the primary care setting. This model appears to perform well but needs to be tested in different populations.
Department of Social Medicine, University of Bristol, Canynge Hall, Whiteladies Road, Bristol BS8 2PR, UK. m.t.may@bristol.ac.uk
M
M
May
D A
DA
Lawlor
P
P
Brindle
R
R
Patel
S
S
Ebrahim
D002318:Cardiovascular Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000209:etiology*; D004812:Epidemiologic Methods; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D006113:United Kingdom / Q000453:epidemiology