Higher vulnerable elders survey scores predict death and functional decline in vulnerable older people.
OBJECTIVE
To examine whether the Vulnerable Elders Survey (VES-13) score predicts risk of death and functional decline in vulnerable older adults.


METHODS
Longitudinal evaluation with mean follow-up of 11 months (range 8-14 months).


METHODS
Two managed care organizations in the United States.


METHODS
Four hundred twenty community-dwelling older people identified as having moderate to high risk of death and functional decline based on a VES-13 score of 3 or higher. These older people were enrolled in the Assessing Care of Vulnerable Elders observational study.


METHODS
Baseline: VES-13 score, sex, income, cognitive score, and number of medical diagnoses.


METHODS
functional decline and death.


RESULTS
VES-13 scores strongly predicted death and functional decline (P<.001, area under the receiver operating curve=0.66). The estimated combined risk of death and decline rose with VES-13 score, increasing from 23% for older people with a VES-13 score of 3 to 60% for those with a score of 10. Other measures (sex, comorbidity) were not significant predictors of death or decline over this period after controlling for VES-13 score.


CONCLUSIONS
The VES-13 score is useful as a screening tool to detect risk of health deterioration in already vulnerable older populations, and higher scores reflect greater risk over a short follow-up period.
Division of Geriatrics and General Internal Medicine and Health Services Researchm University of California, Los Angeles, California 90095, USA. lmin@mednet.ucla.edu
Lillian C
LC
Min
Marc N
MN
Elliott
Neil S
NS
Wenger
Debra
D
Saliba
D000203:Activities of Daily Living; D000368:Aged; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D017063:Outcome Assessment, Health Care; D011159:Population Surveillance; D011379:Prognosis; D015996:Survival Rate; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology; D035862:Vulnerable Populations / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*