Validity of the Rockall scoring system after endoscopic therapy for bleeding peptic ulcer: a prospective cohort study.
BACKGROUND
The Rockall scoring system was developed in unselected patients, the majority of whom did not receive endoscopic therapy. The aim of this study was to assess the validity of the Rockall system in high-risk patients who undergo endoscopic therapy for peptic ulcer hemorrhage.


METHODS
Rockall scores were calculated in 247 patients with major peptic ulcer bleeding entered into a randomized trial of endoscopic therapy. The observed rates of recurrent bleeding and mortality after endoscopic therapy were compared with predicted rates derived from Rockall's study group. The validity of the Rockall system was assessed in terms of calibration and discrimination.


RESULTS
Rates of recurrent bleeding and mortality after endoscopic therapy increased with an increasing Rockall score. Observed rates of recurrent bleeding and mortality were below predicted rates, and calibration of the Rockall system was poor (Mantel-Haenszel chi square = 25.8, p < 0.0001 for recurrent bleeding; Mantel-Haenszel chi square = 15.1, p < 0.0001 for death). For the prediction of recurrent bleeding, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was low (63.4%), but the system was satisfactory when predicting mortality (area under the resulting curve, 84.3%).


CONCLUSIONS
After endoscopic therapy for a bleeding peptic ulcer, the Rockall scoring system can identify patients at high risk of death, but it is inadequate for the prediction of recurrent bleeding.
Church
Nicholas I
NI
Department of Gastroenterology, Middlesex Hospital, Mortimer Street, London W1T 3AA, UK.
Dallal
Helen J
HJ
Masson
John
J
Mowat
N Ashley G
NA
Johnston
David A
DA
Radin
Esme
E
Turner
Marc
M
Fullarton
Grant
G
Prescott
Robin J
RJ
Palmer
Kelvin R
KR
D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D016099:Endoscopy, Gastrointestinal; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D016558:Hemostasis, Endoscopic / Q000379:methods*; D006490:Hemostatics / Q000008:administration & dosage; D006801:Humans; D008875:Middle Aged; D010438:Peptic Ulcer Hemorrhage / Q000401:mortality / Q000628:therapy*; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012720:Severity of Illness Index; D011795:Surveys and Questionnaires; D015996:Survival Rate; D013917:Thrombin / Q000008:administration & dosage; D016896:Treatment Outcome
D006490:Hemostatics; D013917:Thrombin