Re-evaluation of the Arizona cloud-seeding experiment.
The apparent effect of cloud seeding on the average 24-hr precipitation in the Santa Catalina Mountains during the two programs of the 7-year-long Arizona experiment was found to be a 30% loss of rain (P = 0.06). Considering rainy days only, the apparent effect is a 34% loss of rain (P = 0.03). On South-East days the apparent loss was 40% (P = 0.03). The analysis of the diurnal variation in the amounts of hourly precipitation brought out two suggestions: (i) more active silver iodide enters the clouds through seeding at their bases than at the -6 degrees C level; (ii) the population of experimental days includes two categories with opposite responses to seeding: augmentations of rain in one case and losses in the other. These suggestions require independent confirmation.
Statistical Laboratory, University of California, Berkeley, Calif. 94720.
J
J
Neyman
H B
HB
Osborn
E L
EL
Scott
M A
MA
Wells