Hypothetical explanations of the negative apparent effects of cloud seeding in the whitetop experiment.
In order to explain the apparent losses of rain ascribable to seeding at the Whitetop trial, particularly large and highly significant in the stratum E (but not in the opposite stratum W) of experimental days, it has been hypothesized that seeding causes widespread cloudiness and subsequent lowering of ground temperatures. This hypothesis is flatly contradicted by the observations: the seeded E-days (but not W-days) were uniformly less cloudy and hotter than those without seeding. Curiously, these differences prevailed not only from the scheduled time of seeding but also for several hours beforehand. The average rainfall for the 10 hr that preceded the time of seeding was investigated in eight "cells", defined by the day's wind direction to be downwind, upwind, and to the sides and "far" and "near" the center of seeding. Highly significant decreases were found in the far-upwind and far-left cells, indicating an earlymorning disparity between those E-days that later were declared as experimental to be seeded and those E-days that were declared as experimental not to be seeded. This disparity, difficult to explain by chance variation, suggests that particular caution be used in treating differences in the rainfall between seeded and not-seeded days in the Whitetop trial as having been caused by seeding.
Lovasich
J L
JL
Statistical Laboratory, University of California, Berkeley, Calif. 94720.
Neyman
J
J
Scott
E L
EL
Wells
M A
MA