Evaluation of the SORAG and the Static-99 on Belgian sex offenders committed to a forensic facility.
This study evaluated the convergent and predictive validity of the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG; V. L. Quinsey, G. T. Harris, M. E. Rice, & C. A. Cormier, 1998) and the Static-99 (R. K. Hanson & D. Thornton, 1999, 2000) among 147 male sex offenders committed to a high-security hospital in Belgium (Centre de Défense Sociale "Les Marronniers"). Of the sample, 63.8% were child abusers (victims under 14 years of age), 24.6% were rapists (victims aged 14 years or more), and 11.5% were mixed-victim offenders (victims less than 14 years of age and victims aged 14 years or more). After an average follow-up period of 4.2 years (SD = 3.4 years), the sexual recidivism rate was 25.2%, the violent recidivism rate was 17.1%, and the general (any) recidivism rate was 33.1%. The SORAG and the Static-99 were moderately correlated with each other (r = .55), and both showed strong predictive validity for general and violent recidivism (ROC AUC's ranging from .68 to .72 for the total sample). Both instruments showed moderate predictive validity for sexual recidivism (AUC of .64 for SORAG and .66 for Static-99).
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Centre de Recherche en Défense Sociale, Tournai, Belgium. claire.ducro@crds.be
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D000206:Actuarial Analysis / Q000379:methods; D000328:Adult; D001530:Belgium; D002648:Child; D002650:Child Abuse, Sexual / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000523:psychology*; D005555:Forensic Psychiatry / Q000379:methods; D006801:Humans; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011329:Prisoners / Q000523:psychology*; D011581:Psychological Tests; D012372:ROC Curve; D011902:Rape / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000523:psychology*; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods*; D055502:Secondary Prevention