title: Trends in the incidence of tuberculosis in possums and livestock, associated with differing control intensities applied to possum populations.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To determine the trap-catch index (an estimate of abundance) of brushtail possum (Trichosurus vulpecula) populations infected with bovine tuberculosis (Tb; Mycobacterium bovis) that must be achieved, and the length of time such an index must be maintained, for Tb to be eliminated from possum populations and adjacent livestock.
  
  
  METHODS
  Between 1997-1998 and 2000-2001, trap-catch surveys of possum populations naturally infected with Tb and subjected to population-control measures were undertaken at four forest sites and two farmland sites. At the same time, possum carcasses were collected at these sites and their Tb status determined, and all contiguous cattle and deer herds were Tb tested and abattoir slaughter data for these herds were interrogated.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Trap-catch surveys indicated that numbers of possums on the farmland sites surveyed were usually very low and well below the control targets set (i.e. a 5% trap catch or approximately 0.5-1 possum/ha) for the study. In contrast, trap-catch surveys undertaken in forest sites indicated possum numbers were more variable, and often recovered rapidly from control operations to exceed control targets within 1-3 years. The annual rate of recovery of possum populations in half of the forest population surveys undertaken exceeded published intrinsic rates of increase for possums. The overall prevalence of Tb in possum populations was < or =1.9% at 5/6 sites, and was 6.5% at the sixth site. Juvenile possums infected with Tb were trapped within but near the edge of control zones and appeared to represent an immigrant source of infection. Mature infected possums survived control operations apparently by having home ranges in uncontrolled patches within control areas. Infection in possums appeared to be eliminated from one study site by the intensive control undertaken, but elimination at other sites appeared less likely. Levels of Tb in livestock on or adjacent to the study sites fell by at least 50% during the study, and cattle in one area tested clear for the first time in 20 years.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Initial control of possums in forest appeared to achieve national control targets set by the Animal Health Board (AHB), despite trap-catch data often providing misleading population estimates. Such targets were often exceeded within 1-3 years. By comparison, possum control on farmland appeared to maintain populations at very low levels, while control on forest margins maintained populations at intermediate levels. Control was least effective in deep forest where human access was most difficult. Intensive population control measures appeared to have led to a reduced incidence of Tb in livestock at 3/4 sites, and elimination of Tb in livestock at one site. This result supports modelling studies that predict the eradication of Tb from possums through ongoing intensive control and may explain the lower success achieved with earlier less-intensive possum control.
authors.affiliation: Landcare Research, PO Box 69, Lincoln 8152, New Zealand. colemanj@landcareresearch.co.nz
authors.forename: J D
authors.initials: JD
authors.lastname: Coleman
authors.forename: M C
authors.initials: MC
authors.lastname: Coleman
authors.forename: B
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Warburton
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D000829:Animals, Domestic / Q000382:microbiology; D000835:Animals, Wild / Q000382:microbiology; D002417:Cattle; D003670:Deer / Q000382:microbiology*; D004197:Disease Reservoirs / Q000662:veterinary*; D005260:Female; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D009163:Mycobacterium bovis; D009520:New Zealand / Q000453:epidemiology; D011155:Population Control; D018571:Sentinel Surveillance / Q000662:veterinary; D014197:Trees; D048330:Trichosurus / Q000382:microbiology*; D014376:Tuberculosis / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission / Q000662:veterinary*; D014380:Tuberculosis, Bovine / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission