Bifurcations of an epidemic model with non-linear incidence and infection-dependent removal rate.
An epidemic model with a generalized non-linear incidence is extended to incorporate the effect of an infection-dependent removal strategy, which is defined as a function of the number of infected individuals. It is assumed that the removal rate decreases from a maximum capacity for removing infected individuals as their number increases. The existence and stability of the associated equilibria are analysed, and the basic reproductive number (R0) is formulated. It is shown that R0 is independent of the functional form of the incidence, but depends on the removal rate. Normal forms are derived to show the different types of bifurcation the model undergoes, including transcritical, generalized Hopf (Bautin), saddle-node and Bogdanov-Takens. A degenerate Hopf bifurcation at the Bautin point, where the first Lyapunov coefficient vanishes, is discussed. Sotomayor's theorem is applied to establish a saddle-node bifurcation at the turning point of backward bifurcation. The Bogdanov-Takens normal form is derived, from which the local bifurcation curve for a family of homoclinic orbits is formulated. Bifurcation diagrams and numerical simulations, using parameter values estimated for some infectious diseases, are also presented to provide more intuition to the theoretical findings. The results show that sufficiently increasing the removal rate can reduce R0 below a subthreshold domain, which leads to disease eradication.
Moghadas
Seyed M
SM
Institute for Biodiagnostics, National Research Council Canada, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada R3B 1Y6.
Alexander
Murray E
ME
D003141:Communicable Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission; D003198:Computer Simulation; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000517:prevention & control*; D004812:Epidemiologic Methods; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008954:Models, Biological; D017711:Nonlinear Dynamics; D011790:Quarantine