The global distribution of yellow fever and dengue.
Yellow fever has been subjected to partial control for decades, but there are signs that case numbers are now increasing globally, with the risk of local epidemic outbreaks. Dengue case numbers have also increased dramatically during the past 40 years and different serotypes have invaded new geographical areas. Despite the temporal changes in these closely related diseases, and their enormous public health impact, few attempts have been made to collect a comprehensive dataset of their spatial and temporal distributions. For this review, records of the occurrence of both diseases during the 20th century have been collected together and are used to define their climatic limits using remotely sensed satellite data within a discriminant analytical model framework. The resulting risk maps for these two diseases identify their different environmental requirements, and throw some light on their potential for co-occurrence in Africa and South East Asia.
Rogers
D J
DJ
TALA Research Group, Tinbergen Building, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford, UK.
Wilson
A J
AJ
Hay
S I
SI
Graham
A J
AJ
D000349:Africa / Q000453:epidemiology; D001210:Asia, Southeastern / Q000453:epidemiology; D003715:Dengue / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission; D004784:Environmental Monitoring; D062665:Epidemiological Monitoring; D040362:Geographic Information Systems; D005843:Geography; D006801:Humans; D013686:Telemetry; D013997:Time Factors; D015004:Yellow Fever / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission