title: The twentieth century was the wettest period in northern Pakistan over the past millennium.
abstract: Twentieth-century warming could lead to increases in the moisture-holding capacity of the atmosphere, altering the hydrological cycle and the characteristics of precipitation. Such changes in the global rate and distribution of precipitation may have a greater direct effect on human well-being and ecosystem dynamics than changes in temperature itself. Despite the co-variability of both of these climate variables, attention in long-term climate reconstruction has mainly concentrated on temperature changes. Here we present an annually resolved oxygen isotope record from tree-rings, providing a millennial-scale reconstruction of precipitation variability in the high mountains of northern Pakistan. The climatic signal originates mainly from winter precipitation, and is robust over ecologically different sites. Centennial-scale variations reveal dry conditions at the beginning of the past millennium and through the eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries, with precipitation increasing during the late nineteenth and the twentieth centuries to yield the wettest conditions of the past 1,000 years. Comparison with other long-term precipitation reconstructions indicates a large-scale intensification of the hydrological cycle coincident with the onset of industrialization and global warming, and the unprecedented amplitude argues for a human role.
authors.affiliation: Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, CH- 8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland. kerstin.treydte@wsl.ch
authors.forename: Kerstin S
authors.initials: KS
authors.lastname: Treydte
authors.forename: Gerhard H
authors.initials: GH
authors.lastname: Schleser
authors.forename: Gerhard
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Helle
authors.forename: David C
authors.initials: DC
authors.lastname: Frank
authors.forename: Matthias
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Winiger
authors.forename: Gerald H
authors.initials: GH
authors.lastname: Haug
authors.forename: Jan
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Esper
mesh_terms: D001272:Atmosphere / Q000737:chemistry; D002980:Climate; D017753:Ecosystem; D005843:Geography; D017752:Greenhouse Effect; D049668:History, 15th Century; D049669:History, 16th Century; D049670:History, 17th Century; D049671:History, 18th Century; D049672:History, 19th Century; D049673:History, 20th Century; D049691:History, Medieval; D010103:Oxygen Isotopes; D010154:Pakistan; D011891:Rain; D013696:Temperature; D013997:Time Factors; D014197:Trees / Q000378:metabolism*; D014867:Water / Q000032:analysis*
chemical_list: D010103:Oxygen Isotopes; D014867:Water