title: Medication sales and syndromic surveillance, France.
abstract: Although syndromic surveillance systems using nonclinical data have been implemented in the United States, the approach has yet to be tested in France. We present the results of the first model based on drug sales that detects the onset of influenza season and forecasts its trend. Using weekly lagged sales of a selected set of medications, we forecast influenzalike illness (ILI) incidence at the national and regional level for 3 epidemic seasons (2000-01, 2001-02, and 2002-03) and validate the model with real-time updating on the fourth (2003-04). For national forecasts 1-3 weeks ahead, the correlation between observed ILI incidence and forecast was 0.85-0.96, an improvement over the current surveillance method in France. Our findings indicate that drug sales are a useful additional tool to syndromic surveillance, a complementary and independent source of information, and a potential improvement for early warning systems for both epidemic and pandemic planning.
authors.affiliation: Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Medicale Unité, Paris, France. vergu@u707.jussieu.fr
authors.forename: Elisabeta
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Vergu
authors.forename: Rebecca F
authors.initials: RF
authors.lastname: Grais
authors.forename: Hélène
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Sarter
authors.forename: Jean-Paul
authors.initials: JP
authors.lastname: Fagot
authors.forename: Bruno
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Lambert
authors.forename: Alain-Jaques
authors.initials: AJ
authors.lastname: Valleron
authors.forename: Antoine
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Flahault
mesh_terms: D003132:Commerce / Q000191:economics / Q000639:trends*; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D011307:Drug Prescriptions / Q000191:economics; D005602:France / Q000453:epidemiology; D006801:Humans; D007251:Influenza, Human / Q000453:epidemiology*; D008954:Models, Biological; D004366:Nonprescription Drugs / Q000191:economics; D004364:Pharmaceutical Preparations / Q000191:economics*; D011159:Population Surveillance / Q000379:methods*; D012621:Seasons; D013997:Time Factors
chemical_list: D004366:Nonprescription Drugs; D004364:Pharmaceutical Preparations