Negligible risk for epidemics after geophysical disasters.
After geophysical disasters (i.e., earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, tsunamis), media reports almost always stress the risk for epidemics; whether this risk is genuine has been debated. We analyzed the medical literature and data from humanitarian agencies and the World Health Organization from 1985 to 2004. Of >600 geophysical disasters recorded, we found only 3 reported outbreaks related to these disasters: 1 of measles after the eruption of Pinatubo in Philippines, 1 of coccidioidomycosis after an earthquake in California, and 1 of Plasmodium vivax malaria in Costa Rica related to an earthquake and heavy rainfall. Even though the humanitarian response may play a role in preventing epidemics, our results lend support to the epidemiologic evidence that short-term risk for epidemics after a geophysical disaster is very low.
Floret
Nathalie
N
University Hospital of Besançon, Besancon, France.
Viel
Jean-François
JF
Mauny
Frédéric
F
Hoen
Bruno
B
Piarroux
Renaud
R
D004190:Disasters; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006801:Humans; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors