title: Negligible risk for epidemics after geophysical disasters.
abstract: After geophysical disasters (i.e., earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, tsunamis), media reports almost always stress the risk for epidemics; whether this risk is genuine has been debated. We analyzed the medical literature and data from humanitarian agencies and the World Health Organization from 1985 to 2004. Of >600 geophysical disasters recorded, we found only 3 reported outbreaks related to these disasters: 1 of measles after the eruption of Pinatubo in Philippines, 1 of coccidioidomycosis after an earthquake in California, and 1 of Plasmodium vivax malaria in Costa Rica related to an earthquake and heavy rainfall. Even though the humanitarian response may play a role in preventing epidemics, our results lend support to the epidemiologic evidence that short-term risk for epidemics after a geophysical disaster is very low.
authors.affiliation: University Hospital of Besançon, Besancon, France.
authors.forename: Nathalie
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Floret
authors.forename: Jean-François
authors.initials: JF
authors.lastname: Viel
authors.forename: Frédéric
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Mauny
authors.forename: Bruno
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Hoen
authors.forename: Renaud
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Piarroux
mesh_terms: D004190:Disasters; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006801:Humans; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors