Nomogram predictive of cancer specific survival in patients undergoing partial or total amputation for squamous cell carcinoma of the penis.
OBJECTIVE
We created the first nomograms to predict cancer specific survival probabilities of patients with squamous cell carcinoma of the penis, clustering prognostic information from the most commonly used clinical and pathological variables.


METHODS
We retrospectively collected clinical and pathological data from 175 patients who had undergone surgery for squamous cell carcinoma of the penis from 1980 to 2002 at 11 urological centers in northeastern Italy. A logistic regression model was used to construct the nomogram.


RESULTS
At a median followup of 24 months, 101 patients (57.7%) were alive and disease-free while 74 (42.3%) died of penile cancer. According to multivariate analyses, 2 models predictive of cancer specific survival probability were generated. The first model was based on the pathological findings of the primary tumor after penectomy and on the clinical stage of groin lymph nodes, while the second model included the pathological data of the primary tumor and groin lymph nodes. The concordance index was 0.728 for the first model and 0.747 for the second. Calibration appeared to be good in both models.


CONCLUSIONS
In this article we propose 2 models to predict the 5-year cancer specific survival probabilities of patients with squamous cell carcinoma of the penis. Both models showed good discriminating power and calibration in predicting patient 5-year cancer specific survival. These nomograms could improve the quality of prognostic data provided to patients and support physicians in planning treatment.
Kattan
Michael W
MW
Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, The Cleveland Clinic Foundation, Cleveland, Ohio, USA.
Ficarra
Vincenzo
V
Artibani
Walter
W
Cunico
Sergio Cosciani
SC
Fandella
Andrea
A
Martignoni
Guido
G
Novara
Giacomo
G
Galetti
Tommaso Prayer
TP
Zattoni
Filiberto
F
D000368:Aged; D000671:Amputation, Surgical / Q000379:methods; D002294:Carcinoma, Squamous Cell / Q000401:mortality* / Q000601:surgery*; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D049451:Nomograms; D010412:Penile Neoplasms / Q000401:mortality* / Q000601:surgery*; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011379:Prognosis; D015996:Survival Rate