Environmental and individual predictors of error in field estimates of blood alcohol concentration: a multilevel analysis.
OBJECTIVE
Using self-report survey data and measures of breath alcohol concentration (BrAC), this study examined the validity of an estimate of blood alcohol concentration (eBAC). Differences between eBAC and BrAC were modeled to identify sources of error related to survey-derived eBAC. Further, using hierarchical multilevel analyses, environmental event characteristics were examined as sources of eBAC error.


METHODS
College students were interviewed and provided breath samples at randomly selected parties on Friday and Saturday nights. Interviews included items assessing the total number of drinks consumed, duration of drinking event, gender, and weight, which allowed for the calculation of eBAC.


RESULTS
Overall, eBACs were inaccurate. Total number of drinks consumed was associated with underestimates of eBAC, whereas time drinking was associated with overestimates of eBAC. Environmental variables, including party size, rowdy behavior, having food present, and observing many intoxicated partygoers, were also associated with eBAC errors.


CONCLUSIONS
Current self-report survey methodology to calculate eBAC may be insufficient to estimate BAC with any accuracy. Environmental factors associated with the last drinking event for which BAC is being estimated should be considered when calculating eBAC.
Clapp
John D
JD
Prevention Science Collaborative, San Diego State University, 6386 Alvarado Court, Suite 224, San Diego, California 92120, USA. jdclapp@mail.sdsu.edu
Min
Jong W
JW
Shillington
Audrey M
AM
Reed
Mark B
MB
Lange
James E
JE
Holmes
Megan R
MR
D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000428:Alcohol Drinking / Q000097:blood*; D001944:Breath Tests / Q000379:methods; D004777:Environment; D000431:Ethanol / Q000032:analysis / Q000097:blood*; D005260:Female; D006306:Health Surveys; D006801:Humans; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D012650:Self Disclosure; D013334:Students
D000431:Ethanol