[Effects of tobacco tax increase on cigarette consumption and the impact on health policy].
The purpose of this study is to analyse the recent development of tobacco taxes and demand for cigarettes in Germany and to describe consequences for health policy. A descriptive analysis of aggregated data of the Federal Statistical Office is used to show the development of tax income and consumer behaviour with regard to the degree of substitution between differently taxed tobacco products. From 1993 to 2002 the demand for cigarettes increased nearly continuously. In 2003 the demand for industrial cigarettes went down by 8.6% and in 2004 by 15.8%. The difference between taxes and prices of industrial cigarettes and substitutes increased over the time period and still continues to increase. Tax and price differences between tobacco products led to partial compensation of the decreasing demand for industrial cigarettes. Therefore a tax increase on substitute products like fine cut tobacco is recommended. There is still a lack of longitudinal epidemiological data on smoking behaviour in Germany that could affirm effects of tobacco taxation.
Plamper
E
E
Institut für Gesundheitsökonomie und Klinische Epidemiologie der Universität zu Köln, Gleueler Strasse 176-178, 50935 Köln. Evelyn.Plamper@uk-koeln.de
Klever Deichert
G
G
Lauterbach
K W
KW
D005858:Germany / Q000453:epidemiology; D015438:Health Behavior; D006291:Health Policy; D006293:Health Promotion / Q000191:economics* / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence; D006801:Humans; D012907:Smoking / Q000191:economics* / Q000453:epidemiology*; D000074606:Smoking Prevention; D013660:Taxes / Q000191:economics* / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000639:trends; D019460:Tobacco Industry / Q000191:economics / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D014026:Nicotiana