title: Predicting variation in the life course of adolescent mothers as they enter adulthood.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  The purpose of this article is to identify adolescent risk factors that can be used to predict life course pathways (normative, problem-prone, and psychologically vulnerable) in the transition from adolescence to young adulthood in a sample of adolescent mothers. In addition, a cumulative risk index is assessed for its ability to distinguish between the life-course pathways as a potential assessment tool for service providers.
  
  
  METHODS
  This prospective longitudinal study is based on a diverse sample of adolescent mothers in the Northwest. Data have been collected from pregnancy through adulthood. Five risk factors were used (individually and in a cumulative risk index) to predict young mothers' life course pathways from age 17 through 23 years.
  
  
  RESULTS
  A multinomial logistic regression indicated that, relative to the normative group, the problem-prone group had significantly greater odds of having a history of school problems, delinquency, and hard substance use. The psychologically vulnerable group had significantly greater odds of mental health problems, hard substance use, and marginally more delinquency. Importantly, the cumulative risk index (the sum of the five risk factors) predicted the patterns of transition into adulthood and demonstrated significant sensitivity and specificity in distinguishing those in the normative pathway from those in either the problem-prone or psychologically vulnerable pathway.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Results suggest that specific risk factors assessed at pregnancy can differentiate among adolescent mothers who experience varying levels of success in their transition into early adulthood. The cumulative risk index demonstrates applied utility as a risk assessment tool capable of distinguishing among life-course pathways.
authors.affiliation: School of Social Work, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington 98105, USA. mloxford@u.washington.edu
authors.forename: Monica L
authors.initials: ML
authors.lastname: Oxford
authors.forename: Lewayne D
authors.initials: LD
authors.lastname: Gilchrist
authors.forename: Mary Rogers
authors.initials: MR
authors.lastname: Gillmore
authors.forename: Mary Jane
authors.initials: MJ
authors.lastname: Lohr
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D041923:Adolescent Development; D000328:Adult; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007604:Juvenile Delinquency; D008016:Life Change Events; D001523:Mental Disorders / Q000209:etiology; D008603:Mental Health; D011247:Pregnancy; D011253:Pregnancy in Adolescence; D012044:Regression Analysis; D012307:Risk Factors; D012919:Social Behavior; D013332:Student Dropouts; D019966:Substance-Related Disorders