Autism from 2 to 9 years of age.
BACKGROUND
Autism represents an unusual pattern of development beginning in the infant and toddler years.


OBJECTIVE
To examine the stability of autism spectrum diagnoses made at ages 2 through 9 years and identify features that predicted later diagnosis.


METHODS
Prospective study of diagnostic classifications from standardized instruments including a parent interview (Autism Diagnostic Interview-Revised [ADI-R]), an observational scale (Pre-Linguistic Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule/Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule [ADOS]), and independent clinical diagnoses made at ages 2 and 9 years compared with a clinical research team's criterion standard diagnoses.


METHODS
Three inception cohorts: consecutive referrals for autism assessment to (1) state-funded community autism centers, (2) a private university autism clinic, and (3) case controls with developmental delay from community clinics.


METHODS
At 2 years of age, 192 autism referrals and 22 developmentally delayed case controls; 172 children seen at 9 years of age.


METHODS
Consensus best-estimate diagnoses at 9 years of age.


RESULTS
Percentage agreement between best-estimate diagnoses at 2 and 9 years of age was 67, with a weighted kappa of 0.72. Diagnostic change was primarily accounted for by movement from pervasive developmental disorder not otherwise specified to autism. Each measure at age 2 years was strongly prognostic for autism at age 9 years, with odds ratios of 6.6 for parent interview, 6.8 for observation, and 12.8 for clinical judgment. Once verbal IQ (P = .001) was taken into account at age 2 years, the ADI-R repetitive domain (P = .02) and the ADOS social (P = .05) and repetitive domains (P = .005) significantly predicted autism at age 9 years.


CONCLUSIONS
Diagnostic stability at age 9 years was very high for autism at age 2 years and less strong for pervasive developmental disorder not otherwise specified. Judgment of experienced clinicians, trained on standard instruments, consistently added to information available from parent interview and standardized observation.
Lord
Catherine
C
University of Michigan Autism and Communication Disorders Center, Ann Arbor 48109, USA. celord@umich.edu
Risi
Susan
S
DiLavore
Pamela S
PS
Shulman
Cory
C
Thurm
Audrey
A
Pickles
Andrew
A
D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D001321:Autistic Disorder / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000453:epidemiology; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D015331:Cohort Studies; D015897:Comorbidity; D002658:Developmental Disabilities / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000453:epidemiology; D006801:Humans; D007360:Intelligence; D007406:Interview, Psychological; D007804:Language Development; D007805:Language Development Disorders / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology; D009657:North Carolina / Q000453:epidemiology; D016017:Odds Ratio; D010290:Parents / Q000523:psychology; D015995:Prevalence; D011379:Prognosis; D011446:Prospective Studies; D011569:Psychiatric Status Rating Scales; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D012951:Socialization