Deriving the expected utility of a predictive model when the utilities are uncertain.
Predictive models are often constructed from clinical databases with the goal of eventually helping make better clinical decisions. Evaluating models using decision theory is therefore natural. When constructing a model using statistical and machine learning methods, however, we are often uncertain about precisely how the model will be used. Thus, decision-independent measures of classification performance, such as the area under an ROC curve, are popular. As a complementary method of evaluation, we investigate techniques for deriving the expected utility of a model under uncertainty about the model's utilities. We demonstrate an example of the application of this approach to the evaluation of two models that diagnose coronary artery disease.
Cooper
Gregory F
GF
Center for Biomedical Informatics and the Intelligent Systems Program, University of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA.
Visweswaran
Shyam
S
D001185:Artificial Intelligence; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D003657:Decision Making; D003661:Decision Support Techniques; D003663:Decision Trees; D005069:Evaluation Studies as Topic; D015233:Models, Statistical; D012372:ROC Curve