title: Issue a boil-water advisory or wait for definitive information? A decision analysis.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Study the decision to issue a boil-water advisory in response to a spike in sales of diarrhea remedies or wait 72 hours for the results of definitive testing of water and people.
  
  
  METHODS
  Decision analysis.
  
  
  RESULTS
  In the base-case analysis, the optimal decision is test-and-wait. If the cost of issuing a boil-water advisory is less than 13.92 cents per person per day, the optimal decision is to issue the boil-water advisory immediately.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Decisions based on surveillance data that are suggestive but not conclusive about the existence of a disease outbreak can be modeled.
authors.affiliation: RODS Laboratory, Center for Biomedical Informatics, University of Pittsburgh, USA.
authors.forename: Michael M
authors.initials: MM
authors.lastname: Wagner
authors.forename: Garrick L
authors.initials: GL
authors.lastname: Wallstrom
authors.forename: Agnieszka
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Onisko
mesh_terms: D000930:Antidiarrheals / Q000627:therapeutic use; D021742:Cryptosporidiidae; D003661:Decision Support Techniques; D003967:Diarrhea / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000628:therapy; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000517:prevention & control*; D006801:Humans; D004366:Nonprescription Drugs / Q000627:therapeutic use; D011159:Population Surveillance; D014867:Water / Q000469:parasitology; D018508:Water Purification; D014881:Water Supply
chemical_list: D000930:Antidiarrheals; D004366:Nonprescription Drugs; D014867:Water