Invasion of pests resistant to Bt toxins can lead to inherent non-uniqueness in genetically modified Bt-plant dynamics: mathematical modeling.
Genetically modified crops are effective pest management tools for worldwide growers. However, there is a concern that pests may develop resistance to Bt-toxins produced by genetically modified Bt-plants. We study the impact of the Bt-resistant pests on Bt-crops. Furthermore, the dynamics of the Bt-plant-Bt-susceptible insects-Bt-resistant insects system is analysed and it is shown that throughout the insect reproduction period the plant biomass dynamics resulting from invasion of Bt-resistant insects is non-unique. Namely, the chaotic attractor and the limit cycle, which are responsible for the plant and insect biomass dynamics, are shown to coexist. As a result, the Bt-plant-Bt-resistant insect system can manifest either chaotic or regular oscillations of plant and insect biomass depending on spatial patterns resulting from invasion of Bt resistant insects into the Bt plant-Bt susceptible insect system. We show that the non-uniqueness of the system dynamics under unfavorable environmental conditions, such as in the so-called zones of risky agriculture in many developing countries and industrialized countries, can lead to essential decrease in the plant biomass.
Medvinsky
Alexander B
AB
Institute for Theoretical & Experimental Biophysics, Pushchino, Moscow Region, 142290 Russia. medvinsky@iteb.ru
Gonik
Maria M
MM
Li
Bai-Lian
BL
Velkov
Vassili V
VV
Malchow
Horst
H
D000818:Animals; D001413:Bacillus thuringiensis / Q000235:genetics; D001427:Bacterial Toxins / Q000235:genetics; D018533:Biomass; D018556:Crops, Agricultural; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D017753:Ecosystem; D007300:Insect Control / Q000379:methods*; D007313:Insecta / Q000502:physiology*; D007305:Insecticide Resistance; D008954:Models, Biological; D030821:Plants, Genetically Modified; D012098:Reproduction
D001427:Bacterial Toxins