Towards a simulation environment for modeling of local influenza outbreaks.
OBJECTIVE
To analyze the design of a simulation environment for dynamic prediction of influenza transmission in local communities.


METHODS
The technique trade-off method was used to identify and analyze basic design requirements on a simulation environment for modeling of influenza transmission. Data were collected through literature review and interviews with infectious disease experts. The identified requirements were matched to a set of design issues for the simulation environment,and a high-resolution prototype was implemented.


RESULTS
Basic reproductive numbers for influenza transmission in a set of Swedish municipalities were calculated. Tradeoffs were necessary in the design between a focus on reproductive numbers vs. case fatality proportions, algorithm validity vs. model adaptability, and specificity in population description vs. generalizability.


CONCLUSIONS
Computer-based simulations can become important tools for local authorities preparing for influenza outbreaks. Balanced tradeoffs between model detail and public health effectiveness are important in simulation environment design.
Timpka
Toomas
T
Department of Computer and Information Science, Linköping University, Sweden. tti@ida.liu.se
Morin
Magnus
M
Jenvald
Johan
J
Eriksson
Henrik
H
Gursky
Elin
E
D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D003198:Computer Simulation; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D018562:Disease Transmission, Infectious; D006801:Humans; D007251:Influenza, Human / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission*; D008954:Models, Biological; D011159:Population Surveillance / Q000379:methods; D040442:Public Health Informatics; D012959:Socioeconomic Factors; D013548:Sweden / Q000453:epidemiology