Prediction of intra-twin birth weight discordance by binary logistic regression analysis.
OBJECTIVE
Identification of women at high risk of intra-twin birth weight discordance is helpful in obstetric care of these pregnancies. The aim of this study is to establish an intra-twin birth weight discordance prediction model.


METHODS
We created an intra-twin birth weight discordance prediction model by logistic regression, based on the 1995-1997 register twin birth data of the USA. The twin sets were randomly divided into two groups: group 1 to establish the prediction model and group 2 to validate the prediction model. Intra-twin birth weight discordance was defined as birth weight discordance > 25%. The prediction model was validated by receiver operating characteristic curve.


RESULTS
A birth weight discordance prediction model including maternal age (beta = 0.069), parity (beta = 0.250), fetal gender concordance (beta = 0.041), maternal hypertension (beta = 0.368), eclampsia (beta = 0.316), other medical complication (beta = 0.165), and smoking (beta = 0.164) was established, yielded a 0.558 area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. The sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive values were 38.1, 69.7, and 10.8%, respectively, at the cut-off value of 0.09 in group 2.


CONCLUSIONS
A birth weight discordance prediction model that includes seven variables available during pregnancy has been established with acceptable diagnostic performance.
Wen
Shi Wu
SW
School of Public Health, Central South University, Changsha, Hunan, PR China. swwen@ohri.ca
Tan
Hongzhuan
H
Yang
Qiuying
Q
Walker
Mark
M
D019540:Area Under Curve; D001724:Birth Weight; D004522:Educational Status; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D008423:Maternal Age; D010331:Paternal Age; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011247:Pregnancy; D011272:Pregnancy, Multiple; D012372:ROC Curve; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D012737:Sex Factors; D014427:Twins