title: Hormone replacement therapy: time to move on?
abstract: The risks and benefits of hormone replacement therapy (HRT) need to be put in perspective. In the analysis of clinical trials, emphasis is often placed on relative risks, statistical significance and 95% confidence intervals, whereas, from a clinical perspective, more may be gained from a consideration of the absolute and attributable risks of therapy. The Council for International Organizations of Medical Sciences recommended that the frequency of adverse events be categorized as "rare" if less than 1/1000 but more than 1/10,000, and as "very rare" if less than 1/10,000. In the analyses of the Women's Health Initiative (WHI), the attributable risks were "appreciable" (i.e. more than 1/1000) only in women aged over 70 years, with the exception of the risks of venous thromboembolism and stroke. The women in the WHI trial do not represent the relatively younger, healthy, postmenopausal women most commonly prescribed HRT, who are probably at much lower risk. Moreover, the WHI trial did not take into account the benefit of relief of menopausal symptoms, which is, for many women, paramount and outweighs the "rare" long-term risks. Age may be a useful guide to risks and some simple guidelines for management, based on age, are suggested. Many women have been denied or have discontinued HRT because of the fear of risks, which may not have been put in perspective or fully understood. The care of postmenopausal women is not static, and sufficient has now been learned to enable each menopausal woman, with the help of her medical adviser, to come to a balanced and reasonable decision.
authors.affiliation: Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Cape Town, Anzio Road, Observatory, South Africa 7945. profdad@eject.co.za
authors.forename: Dennis A
authors.initials: DA
authors.lastname: Davey
mesh_terms: D015986:Confounding Factors, Epidemiologic; D015914:Estrogen Replacement Therapy / Q000009:adverse effects*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008593:Menopause; D017410:Practice Guidelines as Topic; D016032:Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic; D012307:Risk Factors