title: A simulation study to assess the sensitivity of a forest health monitoring network to outbreaks of defoliating insects.
abstract: The sensitivity of the United States Forest Health Monitoring network to outbreaks of defoliating insects was examined by means of a simulation study. A model constructed specifically for the study was used to generate a wide variety of defoliation patterns in forested landscapes. Forest configuration was that of Minnesota, USA, as expressed by the GAP land cover classification. Combinations of model parameters were based on a Latin Hypercube sample. The relationship between the average number of plots defoliated and outbreak characteristics was then examined via multiple regression. Both theoretical and model results pointed to a strong, linear relationship between the average number of plots defoliated and outbreak size. Model results provided additional insight, suggesting a significant relationship between the average number of plots defoliated and other outbreak characteristics after outbreak size was taken into account.
authors.affiliation: Department of Forest Resources, University of Minnesota, 115 Green Hall, 1530 Cleveland Avenue North, Saint Paul, MN 55108, USA. edgar004@umn.edu
authors.forename: Christopher B
authors.initials: CB
authors.lastname: Edgar
authors.forename: Thomas E
authors.initials: TE
authors.lastname: Burk
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D003198:Computer Simulation; D004784:Environmental Monitoring; D016468:Forestry; D007313:Insecta; D008954:Models, Biological; D012107:Research Design