Issue a boil-water advisory or wait for definitive information? A decision analysis.
OBJECTIVE
Study the decision to issue a boil-water advisory in response to a spike in sales of diarrhea remedies or wait 72 hours for the results of definitive testing of water and people.


METHODS
Decision analysis.


RESULTS
In the base-case analysis, the optimal decision is test-and-wait. If the cost of issuing a boil-water advisory is less than 13.92 cents per person per day, the optimal decision is to issue the boil-water advisory immediately.


CONCLUSIONS
Decisions based on surveillance data that are suggestive but not conclusive about the existence of a disease outbreak can be modeled.
Wagner
Michael M
MM
RODS Laboratory, Center for Biomedical Informatics, University of Pittsburgh, USA.
Wallstrom
Garrick L
GL
Onisko
Agnieszka
A
D000930:Antidiarrheals / Q000627:therapeutic use; D021742:Cryptosporidiidae; D003661:Decision Support Techniques; D003967:Diarrhea / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000628:therapy; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000517:prevention & control*; D006801:Humans; D004366:Nonprescription Drugs / Q000627:therapeutic use; D011159:Population Surveillance; D014867:Water / Q000469:parasitology; D018508:Water Purification; D014881:Water Supply
D000930:Antidiarrheals; D004366:Nonprescription Drugs; D014867:Water