Predictors of mortality in the old-old in Israel: the Cross-sectional and Longitudinal Aging Study.
OBJECTIVE
To examine whether well-known predictors of mortality change their predictive power over time, being reduced or even reversed in the old-old.


METHODS
A multidimensional survey of the Cross-Sectional and Longitudinal Aging Study conducted from 1989 to 1992 with follow-up of mortality after 6, 8, 10, and 12 years since 1989.


METHODS
Israel.


METHODS
Participants (N=1,369) were drawn from a national sample of the Jewish Israeli population aged 75 to 94.


METHODS
Data included sociodemographic factors and measures of health, physical condition, cognitive performance, and depression.


RESULTS
The results showed that age, sex, disability, self-rated health, and marital status predicted mortality and that their predictive power changed over 9 years.


CONCLUSIONS
In the old-old, predictors of mortality changed over time, and their predictive effect eventually diminished. The predictors found to be most significant (age, sex, disability, and self-rated health) support the common cause theory.
Ben-Ezra
Menachem
M
Department of Psychology, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel. menbe@post.tau.ac.il
Shmotkin
Dov
D
D000203:Activities of Daily Living; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D000375:Aging; D003430:Cross-Sectional Studies; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D015577:Geriatric Assessment; D006801:Humans; D007557:Israel / Q000453:epidemiology; D008297:Male; D009026:Mortality / Q000639:trends*; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors; D012737:Sex Factors; D012959:Socioeconomic Factors