title: Spatial distribution of foot-and-mouth disease in Pakistan estimated using imperfect data.
abstract: We estimated the spatial distribution of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Pakistan; we used a probability co-kriging model and the number of FMD outbreaks reported between 1996 and 2000 by Pakistan to the Office International des Epizooties. We used a k-Bessel model and small-ruminant and human densities as surrogate covariates for the population at risk and for livestock markets and movements, respectively. Compared to no or only one covariate, the co-kriging model with both densities provided the best fit to independently obtained data on the spatial distribution of virus isolations (P=0.57). The estimated probability of an FMD outbreak per 25km(2) cell ranged from 0.017 to 0.812, with the maximum relative probability of 47.8 (0.812/0.017). Areas with the highest relative probability of having an FMD outbreak were located in the Punjab region; this is a major animal-production area located along a traditional international animal-trade route.
authors.affiliation: Foot-and-Mouth Disease Surveillance and Modeling Laboratory, Center for Animal Disease Modeling and Surveillance, Department of Medicine and Epidemiology, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California, Davis, CA 95616, USA. amperez@ucdavis.edu
authors.forename: Andres M
authors.initials: AM
authors.lastname: Perez
authors.forename: Mark C
authors.initials: MC
authors.lastname: Thurmond
authors.forename: Tim E
authors.initials: TE
authors.lastname: Carpenter
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D003132:Commerce; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000662:veterinary*; D005536:Foot-and-Mouth Disease / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000635:transmission; D029544:Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus / Q000302:isolation & purification; D006801:Humans; D016013:Likelihood Functions; D015233:Models, Statistical; D016017:Odds Ratio; D010154:Pakistan / Q000453:epidemiology; D011156:Population Density; D012307:Risk Factors; D013029:Space-Time Clustering