title: Prediction of morbidity and mortality on admission to a burn unit.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Improvements in burn care during the last two decades call for new prediction models of morbidity and mortality. The aim of the study was to identify parameters that are predictive of major morbidity factors and risk of mortality in patients with burn injury.
  
  
  METHODS
  The charts of 249 patients (236 survivors) aged 1 to 94 years who were treated for second- and third-degree burns from 1995 to 2002 were reviewed. A multivariate linear stepwise regression model was fitted to the data to predict length of hospitalization, length of operations, and mortality rate.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Survivors' mean burn size was 14 +/- 15 percent of the total body surface area (range, 5 to 90 percent), with a mean hospitalization time of 22.9 +/- 17.1 days and a mean operative time of 127.5 +/- 166.8 minutes. The prognostic factors in each of the regression models predicted 40 percent and 55 percent of the variance in length of hospital stay and operative time, respectively. Total body surface area alone explained most of the variance (29 percent and 44 percent, respectively). As a result, the authors created shorter formulas: Length of hospitalization (days) = 18 + [total body surface area]/3; Operative time (minutes) = 55 + 4[total body surface area]. Total body surface area and smoke inhalation were the only statistically significant predictors of death. Every 1 percent increase in total body surface area was associated with a 6 percent increase in mortality risk. The presence of smoke inhalation increased mortality risk by nine-fold.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Using objective measurements in burn treatment is of great importance. The formulas presented by the authors explain a considerable percentage of the probability of morbidity in burn victims. The authors suggest that other burn units develop their own statistically supported prediction models.
authors.affiliation: Department of Plastic Surgery and the Burn Unit, Rabin Medical Center, Beilinson Campus, and Sackler Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Israel. golande@zahav.net.il
authors.forename: Sagit
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Meshulam-Derazon
authors.forename: Shira
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Nachumovsky
authors.forename: Dean
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Ad-El
authors.forename: Jaqueline
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Sulkes
authors.forename: Daniel J
authors.initials: DJ
authors.lastname: Hauben
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D001830:Body Surface Area; D002056:Burns / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000401:mortality; D002648:Child; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007902:Length of Stay; D016014:Linear Models; D008297:Male; D009017:Morbidity; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D011379:Prognosis; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors; D015208:Smoke Inhalation Injury / Q000453:epidemiology