title: Use of HbA1c in predicting progression to diabetes in French men and women: data from an Epidemiological Study on the Insulin Resistance Syndrome (DESIR).
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Early identification of subjects at high risk for diabetes is essential, and random HbA(1c) (A1C) may be more practical than fasting plasma glucose (FPG). The predictive value of A1C, in comparison to FPG, is evaluated for 6-year incident diabetes.
  
  
  METHODS
  From the French cohort study Data from an Epidemiological Study on the Insulin Resistance Syndrome (DESIR), 1,383 men and 1,437 women, aged 30-65 years, were volunteers for a routine health check-up. Incident diabetes was defined by FPG >or=7.0 mmol/l or treatment by antidiabetic drugs. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to predict diabetes at 6 years. Receiver operating characteristic curves compared the predictive values of A1C and FPG.
  
  
  RESULTS
  At 6 years, 30 women (2.1%) and 60 men (4.3%) had developed diabetes. Diabetes risk increased exponentially with A1C in both sexes (P < 0.001). After stratifying on FPG, A1C predicted diabetes only in subjects with impaired fasting glucose (IFG) (FPG >or=6.10 mmol/l): the odds ratio (95% CI) for a 1% increase in A1C was 7.20 (3.00-17.00). In these subjects, an A1C of 5.9% gave an optimal sensitivity of 64% and specificity of 77% to predict diabetes.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  A1C predicted diabetes, even though the diagnosis of diabetes was based on FPG, but it was less sensitive and specific than FPG. It could be used as a test if fasting blood sampling was not available or in association with FPG. In subjects with IFG, A1C is better than glucose to evaluate diabetes risk, and it could be used to select subjects for intensive early intervention.
authors.affiliation: INSERM U258-IFR69, 16 avenue Paul Vaillant-Couturier, 94807 Villejuif cedex, France.
authors.forename: Celine
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Droumaguet
authors.forename: Beverley
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Balkau
authors.forename: Dominique
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Simon
authors.forename: Emile
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Caces
authors.forename: Jean
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Tichet
authors.forename: Marie Aline
authors.initials: MA
authors.lastname: Charles
authors.forename: Eveline
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Eschwege
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D001786:Blood Glucose / Q000378:metabolism; D003924:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000209:etiology*; D018450:Disease Progression; D005215:Fasting / Q000097:blood; D005260:Female; D005602:France / Q000453:epidemiology; D006442:Glycated Hemoglobin / Q000032:analysis*; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity
chemical_list: D001786:Blood Glucose; D006442:Glycated Hemoglobin