Remission, relapse, and metastasis/death of small hepatocellular carcinoma treated with percutaneous ethanol injection.
OBJECTIVE
This study aimed to quantify the full clinical courses characterized by alternating transitions between remission and relapses for small hepatocellular carcinomas treated by percutaneous ethanol injection, and to ascertain the significant predictors for the remission, relapse, and finally to metastasis or death.


METHODS
A three-state Markov process was used to depict full clinical course. A total of 108 patients who underwent nonsurgical therapy as the first choice of treatment were derived from consecutive clinical series of patients registered in one medical center renowned for their use of percutaneous ethanol injection.


RESULTS
We found that approximately 57.19% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 39.82%, 74.56%) patients were promptly responsive to initial treatment, whereas 43.81% had delayed response or were resistant to treatment. The rate of relapse (per month) was higher than the rate of remission (19.20% [95% CI: 15.36%, 23.04%] vs. 13.82% [95% CI: 10.72%, 16.93%]). The results from the multivariate analysis indicate that the significant predictors for the full clinical courses are total bilirubin, alpha-fetoprotein, prothrombin time, globulin, tumor morphology, and alkaline phosphatase.


CONCLUSIONS
A three-state remission-relapse-death model was proposed to quantify and ascertain the predictors for the multistate disease progression of small hepatocellular carcinomas treated by percutaneous ethanol injection. This model captures the risk of recurrence of tumor as well as the primary endpoint of death.
Liao
Chao-Sheng
CS
Department of Internal Medicine, Shin Kong Wu Ho-Su Memorial Hospital, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan.
Yang
Kuo-Ching
KC
Yen
Amy Ming-Fang
AM
Chen
Li-Sheng
LS
Chen
Tony Hsiu-Hsi
TH
D000279:Administration, Cutaneous; D000368:Aged; D000970:Antineoplastic Agents / Q000627:therapeutic use; D006528:Carcinoma, Hepatocellular / Q000188:drug therapy* / Q000401:mortality / Q000473:pathology; D002492:Central Nervous System Depressants / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D000431:Ethanol / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008113:Liver Neoplasms / Q000188:drug therapy* / Q000401:mortality / Q000473:pathology; D008297:Male; D008390:Markov Chains; D008875:Middle Aged; D009362:Neoplasm Metastasis; D009364:Neoplasm Recurrence, Local / Q000188:drug therapy* / Q000473:pathology; D011379:Prognosis; D012074:Remission Induction; D015996:Survival Rate; D016896:Treatment Outcome; D000509:alpha-Fetoproteins / Q000032:analysis
D000970:Antineoplastic Agents; D002492:Central Nervous System Depressants; D000509:alpha-Fetoproteins; D000431:Ethanol