Food for thought: lower-than-expected crop yield stimulation with rising CO2 concentrations.
Model projections suggest that although increased temperature and decreased soil moisture will act to reduce global crop yields by 2050, the direct fertilization effect of rising carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]) will offset these losses. The CO2 fertilization factors used in models to project future yields were derived from enclosure studies conducted approximately 20 years ago. Free-air concentration enrichment (FACE) technology has now facilitated large-scale trials of the major grain crops at elevated [CO2] under fully open-air field conditions. In those trials, elevated [CO2] enhanced yield by approximately 50% less than in enclosure studies. This casts serious doubt on projections that rising [CO2] will fully offset losses due to climate change.
Long
Stephen P
SP
Department of Plant Biology, University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign, 1201 West Gregory Drive, Urbana, IL 61801, USA. stevel@life.uiuc.edu
Ainsworth
Elizabeth A
EA
Leakey
Andrew D B
AD
Nösberger
Josef
J
Ort
Donald R
DR
D001272:Atmosphere; D018533:Biomass; D002245:Carbon Dioxide; D018556:Crops, Agricultural / Q000254:growth & development* / Q000378:metabolism; D005308:Fertilizers; D005544:Forecasting; D015201:Meta-Analysis as Topic; D009584:Nitrogen; D010126:Ozone; D010788:Photosynthesis; D006109:Poaceae / Q000254:growth & development / Q000378:metabolism; D045868:Sorghum / Q000254:growth & development / Q000378:metabolism; D013025:Glycine max / Q000254:growth & development / Q000378:metabolism; D013696:Temperature; D014908:Triticum / Q000254:growth & development / Q000378:metabolism; D014867:Water; D003313:Zea mays / Q000254:growth & development / Q000378:metabolism
D005308:Fertilizers; D014867:Water; D002245:Carbon Dioxide; D010126:Ozone; D009584:Nitrogen