Probability and delay in commitment.
In the first stage of a two-stage choice, human subjects chose between probabilistic access to a second choice (between a small high-probability reward and a large low-probability reward) and commitment to the large low-probability reward. When confronted with the second-stage choice, subjects strongly preferred the small high-probability reward. When the first-stage probability (of access to the second stage) was high, subjects strongly preferred the path leading to the choice in the second stage. But when the first-stage probability was low, subjects committed themselves to the large low-probability reward. These results parallel those obtained by Rachlin and Green (1972) with pigeons and constitute some evidence that probabilities may be interpreted as delays.
Rachlin
H
H
Castrogiovanni
A
A
Cross
D
D