title: [Incidence of lung cancer in Bas-Rhin, France: trends and projection for 2014].
abstract: BACKGROUND
  In France lung cancer is the second most common cancer in men and the fourth most common in women. In the department of Bas-Rhin the incidence is increasing by 0.1% per annum in men and by 4.4% in women. The aim is to analyse and predict the trend of lung cancer incidence in Bas-Rhin from 1975 to 2014.
  
  
  METHODS
  The incidence data from 1975 to 1999 were extracted from the Bas-Rhin cancer registry. Population estimates (2594 years) were made for the period 1975-2014. Predictions were based on a Bayesian age-period-cohort model.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Between 1975 and 1999 the incidence of lung cancer increased by 4.5% p.a. in women. In men it increased by 1.6% p.a. between 1975 and 1989 and then diminished. For the periods 2000-2004, 2005-2009 and 2010-2014 respectively the rates should reach 25.6, 32.9 and 42.8 per 100,000 in women and 117.5, 111.6 and 110.1 per 100,000 in men.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Increasing tobacco smoking among women and a reduction among men could be one of the reasons for the respective increasing and decreasing incidences.
authors.affiliation: Laboratoire d'épidémiologie et de santé publique, Université Louis Pasteur, Strasbourg, Registre des cancers du Bas-Rhin, France. d.eilstein@invs.sante.fr
authors.forename: D
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Eilstein
authors.forename: Eacute
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Quoix
authors.forename: G
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Hédelin
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D017677:Age Distribution; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D001315:Australia / Q000453:epidemiology; D015331:Cohort Studies; D005260:Female; D005387:Finland / Q000453:epidemiology; D005544:Forecasting; D005602:France / Q000453:epidemiology; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008175:Lung Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology*; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009017:Morbidity / Q000639:trends; D012606:Scotland / Q000453:epidemiology; D017678:Sex Distribution; D012907:Smoking / Q000009:adverse effects / Q000453:epidemiology; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology