title: Early warning scores predict outcome in acute pancreatitis.
abstract: The Early Warning Score (EWS) is a widely used general scoring system to monitor patient progress with a varying score of 0-20 in critically unwell patients. This study evaluated the EWS system compared with other established scoring systems in patients with acute pancreatitis. EWS scores were compared with APACHE scores, Imrie scores, computed tomography grading scores, and Ranson criteria for 110 admissions with acute pancreatitis. A favorable outcome was considered to be survival without intensive therapy unit admission or surgery. Nonsurvivors, necrosectomy, and critical care admission were considered adverse outcomes. EWS was the best predictor of adverse outcome in the first 24 hours of admission (receiver operating curve, 0.768). The most accurate predictor of mortality overall was EWS on day 3 of admission (receiver operating curve, 0.920). EWS correlated with duration of intensive therapy unit stay and number of ventilated days (P < 0.05) and selected those who went on to develop pancreas-specific complications such as pseudocyst or ascites. EWS of 3 or above is an indicator of adverse outcome in patients with acute pancreatitis. EWS can accurately and reliably select both patients with severe acute pancreatitis and those at risk of local complications.
authors.affiliation: Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, Leicester General Hospital, Leicester, England. gg43@le.ac.uk
authors.forename: Giuseppe
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Garcea
authors.forename: Benjamin
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Jackson
authors.forename: Clare J
authors.initials: CJ
authors.lastname: Pattenden
authors.forename: Christopher D
authors.initials: CD
authors.lastname: Sutton
authors.forename: Christopher P
authors.initials: CP
authors.lastname: Neal
authors.forename: Ashley R
authors.initials: AR
authors.lastname: Dennison
authors.forename: David P
authors.initials: DP
authors.lastname: Berry
mesh_terms: D000208:Acute Disease; D006801:Humans; D010195:Pancreatitis / Q000401:mortality*; D011379:Prognosis; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012720:Severity of Illness Index