title: A modelling approach to estimate the sensitivity of pooled faecal samples for isolation of Salmonella in pigs.
abstract: The objective of this study was to develop and parametrize a mathematical model of the sensitivity of pooled sampling of faeces to detect Salmonella infection in pigs. A mathematical model was developed to represent the effect of pooling on the probability of Salmonella isolation. Parameters for the model were estimated using data obtained by collecting 50 faecal samples from each of two pig farms. Each sample was tested for Salmonella at individual sample weights of 0.1, 0.5, 1, 10 and 25 g and pools of 5, 10 and 20 samples were created from the individual samples. The highest test sensitivity for individual samples was found at 10 g (90% sensitivity), with the 25 g test sensitivity equal to 83%. For samples of less than 10 g, sensitivity was found to reduce with sample weight. Incubation for 48 h was found to produce a more sensitive test than incubation for 24 h. Model results found increasing sensitivity with more samples in the pool, with the pools of 5, 10 and 20 being more sensitive than individual sampling, and the pools of 20 being the most sensitive of those considered.
authors.affiliation: Centre for Epidemiology and Risk Analysis, Veterinary Laboratories Agency, New Haw, Addlestone, Surrey KT15 3NB, UK. marnold@vla.defra.gsi.gov.uk
authors.forename: Mark E
authors.initials: ME
authors.lastname: Arnold
authors.forename: Alasdair
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Cook
authors.forename: Rob
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Davies
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D003627:Data Interpretation, Statistical; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000662:veterinary; D005243:Feces / Q000382:microbiology*; D008954:Models, Biological; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011159:Population Surveillance / Q000379:methods*; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods; D012307:Risk Factors; D012475:Salmonella / Q000302:isolation & purification*; D012481:Salmonella Infections, Animal / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000382:microbiology; D018401:Sample Size; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D013552:Swine; D013553:Swine Diseases / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000382:microbiology