Predictors of chronic kidney disease in long-term survivors of lung and heart-lung transplantation.
Renal insufficiency is common after non-renal organ transplants. The predictors of long-term renal outcomes are not well established. A total of 219 lung and heart-lung transplant recipients surviving more than 6 months after transplantation were studied to determine predictors of time to doubling of serum creatinine and end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) with death as a competing risk. Median follow-up was 79 months (range 9-222 months). Baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (GFR) was 96.3+/-34.5 mL/min/1.73 m2. One hundred twenty-two recipients (55%) doubled their serum creatinine, 16 (7.3%) progressed to ESKD and 143 (65%) died. The majority of recipients who survived >6 years had a GFR<60 mL/min at both 1 and 7 years. Most of the loss of renal function occurred in the first year post-transplant. Older age at transplant, lower GFR at 1 month and cyclosporine use in the first 6 months predicted shorter time to doubling of serum creatinine when death was handled as a competing risk. Based on this prevalence data and using GFR decay and death as study endpoints, we offer sample size estimates for a prospective, interventional trial that is aimed at slowing or preventing the progression of kidney disease.
Canales
M
M
Department of Medicine, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA.
Youssef
P
P
Spong
R
R
Ishani
A
A
Savik
K
K
Hertz
M
M
Ibrahim
H N
HN
D003404:Creatinine / Q000097:blood; D016572:Cyclosporine / Q000627:therapeutic use; D018450:Disease Progression; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D005919:Glomerular Filtration Rate / Q000187:drug effects / Q000502:physiology; D006084:Graft Rejection / Q000517:prevention & control; D016041:Heart-Lung Transplantation; D006801:Humans; D007166:Immunosuppressive Agents / Q000627:therapeutic use; D007676:Kidney Failure, Chronic / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000188:drug therapy / Q000209:etiology*; D016040:Lung Transplantation; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011379:Prognosis; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors; D017741:Survivors; D013997:Time Factors; D014184:Transplantation, Homologous
D007166:Immunosuppressive Agents; D016572:Cyclosporine; D003404:Creatinine