title: Geographic potential for outbreaks of Marburg hemorrhagic fever.
abstract: Marburg virus represents one of the least well-known of the hemorrhagic fever-causing viruses worldwide; in particular, its geographic potential in Africa remains quite mysterious. Ecologic niche modeling was used to explore the geographic and ecologic potential of Marburg virus in Africa. Model results permitted a reinterpretation of the geographic point of infection in the initiation of the 1975 cases in Zimbabwe, and also anticipated the potential for cases in Angola, where a large outbreak recently (2004-2005) occurred. The geographic potential for additional outbreaks is outlined, including in several countries in which the virus is not known. Overall, results demonstrate that ecologic niche modeling can be a powerful tool in understanding geographic distributions of species and other biologic phenomena such as zoonotic disease transmission from natural reservoir populations.
authors.affiliation: Natural History Museum and Biodiversity Research Center, University of Kansas, Lawrence, Kansas 66047, USA. town@ku.edu
authors.forename: A Townsend
authors.initials: AT
authors.lastname: Peterson
authors.forename: R Ryan
authors.initials: RR
authors.lastname: Lash
authors.forename: Darin S
authors.initials: DS
authors.lastname: Carroll
authors.forename: Karl M
authors.initials: KM
authors.lastname: Johnson
mesh_terms: D000810:Angola / Q000453:epidemiology; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D004463:Ecology; D005843:Geography; D006801:Humans; D008379:Marburg Virus Disease / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission* / Q000821:virology; D029024:Marburgvirus / Q000502:physiology; D008954:Models, Biological; D012307:Risk Factors; D015030:Zimbabwe / Q000453:epidemiology