title: Predictions of type 2 diabetes and complications in Greenland in 2014.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  The objective of this study was to predict the prevalence of type 2 diabetes and the associated burden to the health care system in Greenland posed by diabetic complications by 2014. The predictions were based on changes in demographic variables and obesity.
  
  
  METHODS
  Projection model based on two cross-sectional population surveys from 1993 and 1999.
  
  
  METHODS
  The development in BMI was described and projected to 2014 under two assumptions: 1) distribution of BMI is constant from 1999, and 2) the trend in BMI found in the surveys will continue until 2014. The prevalence of type 2 diabetes was predicted under these assumptions and based on the observed association between BMI and type 2 diabetes. The prevalence of complications was estimated using the 2nd assumption, as was the prevalence of hypertension, dyslipidemia, Ischemic Heart Disease (IHD) and stroke in the non-diabetic population in 2014.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The prevalence of type 2 diabetes was not predicted to increase by 2014 under the 1st assumption. It was predicted to increase from 11% to 23% for women, but not for men under the 2nd assumption. Approximately half of the cases of cardiovascular disease and cardiovascular risk factors predicted by 2014 were attributable to diabetes.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The prevalence of type 2 diabetes was predicted to increase in Greenland, and the number of complications was predicted to double from 1999 to 2014. Both prophylactic and treatment initiatives are needed to deal with the extra burden posed by type 2 diabetes to the Greenlandic health care system in 2014.
authors.affiliation: Steno Diabetes Center, Gentofte, Denmark. nma@niph.dk
authors.forename: Nina
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Martinsen
authors.forename: Marit E
authors.initials: ME
authors.lastname: Jørgensen
authors.forename: Peter
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Bjerregaard
authors.forename: Allan
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Krasnik
authors.forename: Bendix
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Carstensen
authors.forename: Knut
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Borch-Johnsen
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D015992:Body Mass Index; D003430:Cross-Sectional Studies; D003924:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / Q000150:complications* / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000208:ethnology; D005260:Female; D006116:Greenland / Q000453:epidemiology; D006801:Humans; D004930:Inuit; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015995:Prevalence; D012737:Sex Factors