The Temporal Stage fallacy: A novel statistical fallacy in the medical literature.
Celebrated for disproving the traditional view that lack of oxygen at birth (perinatal asphyxia) contributes significantly to cerebral palsy, a 1986 New England Journal of Medicine article by Karin Nelson and Jonas Ellenberg engineered a new consensus in the medical community: that lack of oxygen at birth rarely causes cerebral palsy. We demonstrate that the article's central argument relies on straightforwardly fallacious statistical reasoning, and we discuss significant implications--e.g. how carefully fetuses are monitored during labor and delivery, expert testimony in malpractice cases, and public policy decisions.
Shier
David
D
Department of Philosophy, Washington State University, P O Box 645130, Pullman, WA 99164-5130, USA.
Tilson
J Lee
JL
D001238:Asphyxia Neonatorum / Q000150:complications*; D035843:Biomedical Research / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D001720:Birth Injuries / Q000150:complications*; D002547:Cerebral Palsy / Q000209:etiology*; D006801:Humans; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D015233:Models, Statistical