title: Modeling predicted that tobacco control policies targeted at lower educated will reduce the differences in life expectancy.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To estimate the effects of reducing the prevalence of smoking in lower educated groups on educational differences in life expectancy.
  
  
  METHODS
  A dynamic Markov-type multistate transition model estimated the effects on life expectancy of two scenarios. A "maximum scenario" where educational differences in prevalence of smoking disappear immediately, and a "policy target-scenario" where difference in prevalence of smoking is halved over a 20-year period. The two scenarios were compared to a reference scenario, where smoking prevalences do not change. Five Dutch cohort studies, involving over 67,000 participants aged 20 to 90 years, provided relative mortality risks by educational level, and smoking habits were assessed using national data of more than 120,000 persons.
  
  
  RESULTS
  In the reference scenario, the difference in life expectancy at age 40 between highest and lowest educated groups was 5.1 years for men and 2.7 years for women. In the "maximum scenario" these differences were reduced to 3.6 years for men and 1.7 years for women (reduction approximately 30%), and in the "policy target-scenario" differences were 4.7 years for men and 2.4 years for women (reduction approximately 10%).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Theoretically, educational differences in life expectancy would be reduced by 30% at maximum, if variations in smoking prevalence were eliminated completely. In practice, tobacco control policies that are targeted at the lower educated may reduce the differences in life expectancy by approximately 10%.
authors.affiliation: National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Centre for Prevention and Health Services Research, P.O. Box 1, Bilthoven 3720 BA, The Netherlands. wanda.bemelmans@rivm.nl
authors.forename: W J E
authors.initials: WJ
authors.lastname: Bemelmans
authors.forename: F
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: van Lenthe
authors.forename: R
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Hoogenveen
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Kunst
authors.forename: D J H
authors.initials: DJ
authors.lastname: Deeg
authors.forename: P A
authors.initials: PA
authors.lastname: van den Brandt
authors.forename: R A
authors.initials: RA
authors.lastname: Goldbohm
authors.forename: W M M
authors.initials: WM
authors.lastname: Verschuren
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D015331:Cohort Studies; D004522:Educational Status; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008017:Life Expectancy; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D015995:Prevalence; D011640:Public Policy; D012044:Regression Analysis; D012306:Risk; D012907:Smoking / Q000401:mortality; D016540:Smoking Cessation / Q000523:psychology*; D012923:Social Class; D013997:Time Factors