title: Java project on periodontal diseases. The natural development of periodontitis: risk factors, risk predictors and risk determinants.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To identify risk factors, risk predictors and risk determinants for onset and progression of periodontitis.
  
  
  METHODS
  For this longitudinal, prospective study all subjects in the age range 15-25 years living in a village of approximately 2000 inhabitants at a tea estate on Western Java, Indonesia, were selected. Baseline examination was carried out in 1987 and follow-up examinations in 1994 and 2002. In 2002, 128 subjects could be retrieved from the original group of 255. Baseline examination included evaluation of plaque, bleeding on probing, calculus, pocket depth, attachment loss and presence of Actinobacillus actinomycetemcomitans, Porphyromonas gingivalis, Prevotella intermedia, spirochetes and motile microorganisms.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The mean attachment loss increased from 0.33 mm in 1987 to 0.72 mm in 1994 and 1.97 mm in 2002. Analysis identified the amount of subgingival calculus and subgingival presence of A. actinomycetemcomitans as risk factors, and age as a risk determinant, for the onset of disease. Regarding disease progression, the number of sites with a probing depth > or = 5 mm and the number of sites with recession were identified as risk predictors and male gender as a risk determinant.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Screening of these parameters early in life could be helpful in the prevention of onset and progression of periodontal diseases.
authors.affiliation: Department of Periodontology, Academic Centre for Dentistry Amsterdam (ACTA), Amsterdam, The Netherlands. u.vd.velden@acta.nl
authors.forename: U
authors.initials: U
authors.lastname: Van der Velden
authors.forename: F
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Abbas
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Armand
authors.forename: B G
authors.initials: BG
authors.lastname: Loos
authors.forename: M F
authors.initials: MF
authors.lastname: Timmerman
authors.forename: G A
authors.initials: GA
authors.lastname: Van der Weijden
authors.forename: A J
authors.initials: AJ
authors.lastname: Van Winkelhoff
authors.forename: E G
authors.initials: EG
authors.lastname: Winkel
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D016976:Aggregatibacter actinomycetemcomitans / Q000302:isolation & purification; D003728:Dental Calculus / Q000453:epidemiology; D003773:Dental Plaque / Q000453:epidemiology; D018450:Disease Progression; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D005544:Forecasting; D005884:Gingival Hemorrhage / Q000453:epidemiology; D005889:Gingival Recession / Q000453:epidemiology; D006801:Humans; D007214:Indonesia / Q000453:epidemiology; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D008297:Male; D017622:Periodontal Attachment Loss / Q000453:epidemiology; D010510:Periodontal Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology*; D010514:Periodontal Pocket / Q000453:epidemiology; D016966:Porphyromonas gingivalis / Q000302:isolation & purification; D018713:Prevotella intermedia / Q000302:isolation & purification; D011446:Prospective Studies; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors; D012737:Sex Factors; D013144:Spirochaetales / Q000302:isolation & purification