title: The rising share of nonmarital births: fertility choice or marriage behavior?
abstract: Much of the sharp rise in the share of nonmarital births in the United States has been attributed to changes in the fertility choices of unmarried and married women-in response, it is often argued, to public policy. In contrast, we develop and test a model that attributes the rise to changes in marriage behavior, with no necessary changes infertility. A variety of empirical tests strongly support this conclusion and invites focused attention to issues related to marriage behavior as well as to the interactions between marriage and fertility.
authors.affiliation: Department of Economics, University of Oregon, Eugene, OR 97403-1285, USA. jgray@uoregon.edu
authors.forename: Jo Anna
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: Gray
authors.forename: Jean
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Stockard
authors.forename: Joe
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Stone
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D001723:Birth Rate / Q000639:trends*; D002755:Choice Behavior; D005260:Female; D005298:Fertility; D006801:Humans; D007086:Illegitimacy / Q000706:statistics & numerical data* / Q000639:trends; D008297:Male; D008393:Marriage / Q000523:psychology* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011157:Population Dynamics; D011336:Probability; D012111:Residence Characteristics; D014481:United States