title: U.S. physician workforce forecasting: a tale of two states.
abstract: Physician workforce forecasting in the U.S. has returned to preeminence in the recent past. With the publication of the federal Council on Graduate Medical Education's Sixteenth Report: Physician Workforce Policy Guidelines for the United States, 2000-2020, efforts have begun to examine specialty- and geography-specific forecasts to determine the extent to which the projected national shortage of physicians will affect particular specialties and populations in particular areas. This article begins with a brief history of physician workforce forecasting in the U.S. over the past 25 years and summarizes the findings of two state-specific attempts to forecast physician supply and demand in the coming years. Discussions of the findings from the two studies as well as a brief commentary on how particular model assumptions obfuscate interpretation of the forecasts are provided. Finally, a brief discussion of how the forecasts were used by stakeholders in each state is presented.
authors.affiliation: New York Center for Health Workforce Studies, University at Albany, USA.
authors.forename: Gaetano J
authors.initials: GJ
authors.lastname: Forte
mesh_terms: D002140:California; D003695:Delivery of Health Care; D004526:Efficiency; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D007348:Insurance, Health; D008329:Managed Care Programs; D008507:Medically Underserved Area; D008511:Medicine / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D008824:Michigan; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D020380:Needs Assessment; D010820:Physicians / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000600:supply & distribution*; D011640:Public Policy; D013038:Specialization; D013997:Time Factors; D014481:United States