title: Metamorphosis: the natural history of coronary heart disease. Sudden death is common. Unexpected death is not.
abstract: It is a common practice to perform percutaneous or open coronary artery revascularisation in CHD to prevent sudden or unexpected death. Such a practice assumes that sudden and unexpected death is common in stable patients with uncomplicated CHD. This is a retrospective analysis of 248 patients (199, 80% men, 49, 20% women) who had median age 65.1 when assessed after stabilisation of their CHD and were followed up to 25 years until their death. Myocardial revascularisation was only performed after the patients had stabilised if they developed either progressive clinical disability or acute coronary syndromes. At stabilisation, 181 (73%) were uncomplicated, 59 (24%) had heart failure (HF) and 8 (3%) had other comorbidities. At their last visit before death, 67 (27%) were uncomplicated, 121 (49%) had HF, 41 (17%) had cancer and 19 (8%) had other comorbidities. Their median age at death was 72.4 years. 77 (31%) died suddenly, 47 (19%) of HF, 39 (16%) of cancer, 35 (14%) of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and 50 (20%) had miscellaneous modes of dying. Unexpected death occurred in 26 (10%) of cases: sudden 12, AMI 7, stroke 3, suicide 2, abdominal aneurysm 1, motor vehicle accident 1. We conclude that the clinical condition of most patients with CHD deteriorates between their initial stabilisation and their final visit before their death-metamorphosis. Only a small proportion of deaths occur in patients with stable CHD and no HF. Intervention in stable patients without CHF is unlikely to reduce sudden or unexpected death in patients with CHD.
authors.affiliation: Cardiology Unit and Intensive Care Unit, St Vincent's Hospital, Melbourne, Vic., Australia. michael.jelinek@svhm.org.au
authors.forename: Michael
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Jelinek
authors.forename: John
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Santamaria
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D015897:Comorbidity; D003327:Coronary Disease / Q000401:mortality* / Q000601:surgery*; D003645:Death, Sudden / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control*; D005260:Female; D006333:Heart Failure / Q000453:epidemiology; D006801:Humans; D008017:Life Expectancy; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009204:Myocardial Revascularization; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D015996:Survival Rate