title: [Cancer incidence in Modena: 2002-2006 projections].
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Cancer incidence predictions for the period 2002-2006 in the Province of Modena applying a Bayesian APC (Age Period Cohort) model.
  
  
  METHODS
  Population based descriptive study.
  
  
  METHODS
  Patients with cancer diagnosed between 1988 and 2001 recorded in Modena Cancer Registry.
  
  
  METHODS
  Number of cases, crude and standardized incidence rates.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Cancer incidence in 2002-2006 is expected to increase in both sexes, with the exception of stomach cancer (males and females) and lung cancer in males, both expected to decrease. The difference between the number of cases predicted for 2002 and observed data was about 0.7%.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Prediction based on APC model seems to be reliable for most of the cancer sites, but should be used cautiously. In particular, projected number of breast and prostate cancer cases is clearly overestimated due to diagnostic anticipation effect which gives rise to an excess in recent years.
authors.affiliation: Registro tumori della Provincia di Modena.
authors.forename: Antonella
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Fracca
authors.forename: Ivan
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Rashid
authors.forename: Claudia
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Cirilli
authors.forename: Giulia
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Cavrini
authors.forename: Massimo
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Federico
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D002391:Catchment Area, Health; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007558:Italy / Q000453:epidemiology; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009369:Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology*; D015995:Prevalence