Childhood thyroid cancer, radiation dose from Chernobyl, and dose uncertainties in Bryansk Oblast, Russia: a population-based case-control study.
A population-based case-control study was conducted to estimate the radiation-related risk of thyroid cancer in persons who were exposed in childhood to (131)I from the Chernobyl accident of April 26, 1986 and to investigate the impact of uncertainties in individual dose estimates. Included were all 66 confirmed cases of primary thyroid cancer diagnosed from April 26, 1986 through September 1998 in residents of Bryansk Oblast, Russia, who were 0-19 years old at the time of the accident, along with two individually matched controls for each case. Thyroid radiation doses, estimated using a semi-empirical model based on environmental contamination data and individual characteristics, ranged from 0.00014 Gy to 2.73 Gy and had large uncertainties (median geometric standard deviation 2.2). The estimated excess relative risk (ERR) associated with radiation exposure, 48.7/Gy, was significantly greater than 0 (P = 0.00013) but had an extremely wide 95% confidence interval (4.8 to 1151/Gy). Adjusting for dose uncertainty nearly tripled the ERR to 138/Gy, although this was likely an overestimate due to limitations in the modeling of dose uncertainties. The radiation-related excess risk observed in this study is quite large, especially if the uncertainty of dose estimation is taken into account, but is not inconsistent with estimates previously reported for risk after (131)I exposure or acute irradiation from external sources.
Kopecky
Kenneth J
KJ
Division of Public Health Sciences, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington 98109, USA. kkopecky@fhcrc.org
Stepanenko
Valery
V
Rivkind
Nikolai
N
Voillequé
Paul
P
Onstad
Lynn
L
Shakhtarin
Vladimir
V
Parshkov
Evgeni
E
Kulikov
Sergei
S
Lushnikov
Evgeni
E
Abrosimov
Alexander
A
Troshin
Vladislav
V
Romanova
Galina
G
Doroschenko
Vladimir
V
Proshin
Anatoli
A
Tsyb
Anatoly
A
Davis
Scott
S
D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D016022:Case-Control Studies; D047852:Chernobyl Nuclear Accident; D002648:Child; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D011829:Radiation Dosage; D012307:Risk Factors; D012426:Russia / Q000453:epidemiology; D013964:Thyroid Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000209:etiology*