title: The logistic EuroSCORE predicts the hospital mortality of the thoracic aortic surgery in consecutive 327 Japanese patients better than the additive EuroSCORE.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Risk stratification in thoracic aortic surgery is a topic of major interest. Recent studies have shown the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) to be an extremely useful and reliable risk stratification score and also a good indicator of quality of care in cardiac surgery. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the significance of the additive and logistic EuroSCOREs in patients undergoing surgery on the thoracic aorta in Japan.
  
  
  METHODS
  We calculated the predicted mortality according to the additive and logistic EuroSCORE algorithms in 327 consecutive patients who underwent surgery of the thoracic aorta during a 30-year period (between 1976 and 2005). We compared the score validity between the two algorithms and also evaluated the score validity for the patients who underwent thoracic aortic surgery. The score validity was assessed by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The overall in-hospital mortality was 13%. The area under the ROC curve was satisfactorily high for the additive (0.68, 0.73, 0.73) as well as the logistic EuroSCORE (0.69, 0.74, 0.75) in the patients who underwent thoracic aortic surgery during 30-, 20-, and 10-year periods, respectively. The actual mortality was 7% (Group 1; an additive EuroSCORE of 3-6), 16% (Group 2; 7-11), and 37% (Group 3; >12). The mortality expected by the additive and logistic EuroSCORE in the three different risk groups were (5%, 9%, 19%) and (5%, 14%, 43%), respectively. Namely, the mortality expected by the logistic EuroSCORE perfectly matched with the actual mortality in any of the three risk groups. In contrast, the mortality expected by the additive EuroSCORE tended to dissociate when the number of risks increased. Significant difference was observed between the observed mortality and the mortality expected by the additive EuroSCORE algorithm in the high-risk group (p=0.0473).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Although both the additive and the logistic EuroSCORE reliably predicted the overall operative mortality for thoracic aortic surgery in 327 Japanese patients, the logistic EuroSCORE better matched with the actual mortality in the operative risk especially in the high-risk group.
authors.affiliation: Department of Cardiovascular Surgery, Kyushu University Graduate School of Medical Sciences, 3-1-1 Maidashi, Higashi-ku, Fukuoka 812-8582, Japan. tnishida@heart.med.kyushu-u.ac.jp
authors.forename: Takahiro
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Nishida
authors.forename: Munetaka
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Masuda
authors.forename: Yukihiro
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Tomita
authors.forename: Shigehiko
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Tokunaga
authors.forename: Yoshihisa
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Tanoue
authors.forename: Akira
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Shiose
authors.forename: Shigeki
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Morita
authors.forename: Ryuji
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Tominaga
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D000784:Aortic Dissection / Q000401:mortality / Q000601:surgery; D001013:Aorta, Thoracic / Q000601:surgery*; D017545:Aortic Aneurysm, Thoracic / Q000401:mortality* / Q000601:surgery*; D019540:Area Under Curve; D019917:Blood Vessel Prosthesis Implantation / Q000401:mortality; D005260:Female; D017052:Hospital Mortality; D006801:Humans; D007564:Japan; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D012307:Risk Factors; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity