title: Predicting extinctions as a result of climate change.
abstract: Widespread extinction is a predicted ecological consequence of global warming. Extinction risk under climate change scenarios is a function of distribution breadth. Focusing on trees and birds of the eastern United States, we used joint climate and environment models to examine fit and climate change vulnerability as a function of distribution breadth. We found that extinction vulnerability increases with decreasing distribution size. We also found that model fit decreases with decreasing distribution size, resulting in high prediction uncertainty among narrowly distributed species. High prediction uncertainty creates a conservation dilemma in that excluding these species under-predicts extinction risk and favors mistaken inaction on global warming. By contrast, including narrow endemics results in over-predicting extinction risk and promotes mistaken inaction on behalf of individual species prematurely considered doomed to extinction.
authors.affiliation: Department of Environmental Science and Policy, University of California, Davis, California 95616, USA. mwschwartz@ucdavis.edu
authors.forename: Mark W
authors.initials: MW
authors.lastname: Schwartz
authors.forename: Louis R
authors.initials: LR
authors.lastname: Iverson
authors.forename: Anantha M
authors.initials: AM
authors.lastname: Prasad
authors.forename: Stephen N
authors.initials: SN
authors.lastname: Matthews
authors.forename: Raymond J
authors.initials: RJ
authors.lastname: O'Connor
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D001717:Birds; D017753:Ecosystem; D053476:Extinction, Biological; D017752:Greenhouse Effect; D008954:Models, Biological; D011157:Population Dynamics; D014197:Trees