title: Predicting the risk of hospital admission in older persons--validation of a brief self-administered questionnaire in three European countries.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To validate the Probability of Repeated Admission (Pra) questionnaire, a widely used self-administered tool for predicting future healthcare use in older persons, in three European healthcare systems.
  
  
  METHODS
  Prospective study with 1-year follow-up.
  
  
  METHODS
  Hamburg, Germany; London, United Kingdom; Canton of Solothurn, Switzerland.
  
  
  METHODS
  Nine thousand seven hundred thirteen independently living community-dwelling people aged 65 and older.
  
  
  METHODS
  Self-administered eight-item Pra questionnaire at baseline. Self-reported number of hospital admissions and physician visits during 1 year of follow-up.
  
  
  RESULTS
  In the combined sample, areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) were 0.64 (95% confidence interval (CI)=0.62-0.66) for the prediction of one or more hospital admissions and 0.68 (95% CI=0.66-0.69) for the prediction of more than six physician visits during the following year. AUCs were similar between sites. In comparison, prediction models based on a person's age and sex alone exhibited poor predictive validity (AUC <or= 0.57). High-risk individuals (Pra score >or= 0.5) were 2.3 times as likely (95% CI=2.1-2.6) as low-risk individuals to have a hospital admission, and 2.1 times as likely (95% CI=2.0-2.2) to have more than six physician visits.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The Pra instrument exhibits good validity for predicting future health service use on a population level in different healthcare settings. Administrative data have shown similar predictive validity, but in practice, such data are often not available. The Pra is likely of high interest to governments and health insurance companies worldwide as a basis for programs aimed at health risk management in older persons.
authors.affiliation: Department of Geriatrics, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Jan T
authors.initials: JT
authors.lastname: Wagner
authors.forename: Lucas M
authors.initials: LM
authors.lastname: Bachmann
authors.forename: Chad
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Boult
authors.forename: Danielle
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Harari
authors.forename: Wolfgang
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: von Renteln-Kruse
authors.forename: Matthias
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Egger
authors.forename: John C
authors.initials: JC
authors.lastname: Beck
authors.forename: Andreas E
authors.initials: AE
authors.lastname: Stuck
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D016001:Confidence Intervals; D005060:Europe; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D015577:Geriatric Assessment; D006305:Health Status Indicators; D006761:Hospitals / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D010343:Patient Admission / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D011446:Prospective Studies; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods; D011795:Surveys and Questionnaires; D013997:Time Factors