The factor structure of static actuarial items: its relation to prediction.
Principal components analysis was conducted on items contained in actuarial instruments used with adult sex offenders, including: the Rapid Assessment of Sex Offender Risk for Recidivism (RASORR), the Static-99, the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG), the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG), and the Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool-Revised (MnSOST-R). In a data set that included child molesters and rapists (N = 311), six interpretable components were identified: Antisocial Behavior, Child Sexual Abuse, Persistence, Detached Predatory Behavior, Young and Single, and Male Victim(s). The RRASOR was highly correlated with Persistence, and the VRAG and SORAG were highly correlated with Antisocial Behavior. Antisocial Behavior was a significant predictor of violent recidivism, while Persistence and Child Sexual Abuse were significant predictors of sexual recidivism.
Barbaree
Howard E
HE
University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada. howard_barbaree@camh.net
Langton
Calvin M
CM
Peacock
Edward J
EJ
D000206:Actuarial Analysis / Q000379:methods*; D000328:Adult; D002648:Child; D002650:Child Abuse, Sexual / Q000523:psychology*; D005555:Forensic Psychiatry / Q000379:methods; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009864:Ontario; D010556:Personality Tests; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011329:Prisoners / Q000523:psychology*; D011594:Psychometrics / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D011902:Rape / Q000523:psychology*; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D012107:Research Design; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods; D055502:Secondary Prevention; D012720:Severity of Illness Index; D011795:Surveys and Questionnaires