title: Risk adjusted surgical audit in gynaecological oncology: P-POSSUM does not predict outcome.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To assess the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enumeration of mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) and its validity for use in gynaecological oncology surgery.
  
  
  METHODS
  All patients undergoing gynaecological oncology surgery at the Northern Gynaecological Oncology Centre (NGOC) Gateshead, UK over a period of 12months (2002-2003) were assessed prospectively. Mortality and morbidity predictions using the Portsmouth modification of the POSSUM algorithm (P-POSSUM) were compared to the actual outcomes. Performance of the model was also evaluated using the Hosmer and Lemeshow Chi square statistic (testing the goodness of fit).
  
  
  RESULTS
  During this period 468 patients were assessed. The P-POSSUM appeared to over predict mortality rates for our patients. It predicted a 7% mortality rate for our patients compared to an observed rate of 2% (35 predicted deaths in comparison to 10 observed deaths), a difference that was statistically significant (H&L chi(2)=542.9, d.f. 8, p<0.05).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The P-POSSUM algorithm overestimates the risk of mortality for gynaecological oncology patients undergoing surgery. The P-POSSUM algorithm will require further adjustments prior to adoption for gynaecological cancer surgery as a risk adjusted surgical audit tool.
authors.affiliation: Northern Gynaecological Oncology Centre, Queen Elizabeth Hospital, Sheriff Hill, Gateshead NE9 6SX, UK. nagindradas@doctors.org.uk
authors.forename: N
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Das
authors.forename: A S
authors.initials: AS
authors.lastname: Talaat
authors.forename: R
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Naik
authors.forename: A D
authors.initials: AD
authors.lastname: Lopes
authors.forename: K A
authors.initials: KA
authors.lastname: Godfrey
authors.forename: M H
authors.initials: MH
authors.lastname: Hatem
authors.forename: R J
authors.initials: RJ
authors.lastname: Edmondson
mesh_terms: D005260:Female; D005833:Genital Neoplasms, Female / Q000401:mortality / Q000601:surgery*; D017052:Hospital Mortality; D006801:Humans; D017063:Outcome Assessment, Health Care; D011183:Postoperative Complications; D020379:Risk Adjustment; D012720:Severity of Illness Index