title: A risk index for 12-month suicide attempts in the National Comorbidity Survey Replication (NCS-R).
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Clinical judgments about the likelihood of suicide attempt would be aided by an index of risk factors that could be quickly assessed in diverse settings. We sought to develop such a risk index for 12-month suicide attempts among suicide ideators.
  
  
  METHODS
  The National Comorbidity Survey Replication (NCS-R), a household survey of adults aged 18+, assessed the 12-month occurrence of suicide ideation, plans and attempts in a subsample of 5692 respondents. Retrospectively assessed correlates include history of prior suicidality, sociodemographics, parental psychopathology and 12-month DSM-IV disorders.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Twelve-month prevalence estimates of suicide ideation, plans and attempts are 2.6, 0.7 and 0.4% respectively. Although ideators with a plan are more likely to make an attempt (31.9%) than those without a plan (9.6%), 43% of attempts were described as unplanned. History of prior attempts is the strongest correlate of 12-month attempts. Other significant correlates include shorter duration of ideation, presence of a suicide plan, and several sociodemographic and parental psychopathology variables. Twelve-month disorders are not powerful correlates. A four-category summary index of correlates is strongly related to attempts among ideators [area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC)=0.88]. The distribution (conditional probability of attempt) of the risk index is: 19.0% very low (0.0%), 51.1% low (3.5%), 16.2% intermediate (21.3%), and 13.7% high (78.1%). Two-thirds (67.1%) of attempts were made by ideators in the high-risk category.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  A short, preliminary risk index based on retrospectively reported responses to fully structured questions is strongly correlated with 12-month suicide attempts among ideators, with a high concentration of attempts among high-risk ideators.
authors.affiliation: National Institute of Psychiatry and Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana, Mexico City, Mexico.
authors.forename: Guilherme
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Borges
authors.forename: Jules
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Angst
authors.forename: Matthew K
authors.initials: MK
authors.lastname: Nock
authors.forename: Ayelet Meron
authors.initials: AM
authors.lastname: Ruscio
authors.forename: Ellen E
authors.initials: EE
authors.lastname: Walters
authors.forename: Ronald C
authors.initials: RC
authors.lastname: Kessler
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D015897:Comorbidity; D003710:Demography; D039721:Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D001523:Mental Disorders / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000523:psychology; D008875:Middle Aged; D015995:Prevalence; D011336:Probability; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors; D012720:Severity of Illness Index; D013406:Suicide, Attempted / Q000523:psychology* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D011795:Surveys and Questionnaires; D013997:Time Factors