Predicting the onset of major depressive disorder and dysthymia in older adults with subthreshold depression: a community based study.
BACKGROUND
It is well-established that the incidence of major depressive disorder is increased in subjects with subthreshold depression. A new research area focuses on the possibilities of preventing the onset of major depressive disorders in subjects with subthreshold depression. An important research question for this research area is which subjects with subthreshold depression will develop a full-blown depressive disorder and which will not.


METHODS
We selected 154 older subjects with subthreshold depression (CES-D>16) but no DSM mood disorder from a longitudinal study among a large population based cohort aged between 55 and 85 years in The Netherlands. Of these subjects, 31 (20.1%) developed a mood disorder (major depression and/or dysthymia) at three-year or six-year follow-up. We examined risk factors and individual symptoms of mood disorder as predictors of onset of mood disorder.


RESULTS
Two variables were found to be significant predictors in both bivariate and multivariate analyses: eating problems and sleep problems. The incidence of mood disorders differed strongly for different subpopulations, varying from 9% (for those not having any of the two risk factors) to 57% (for those having both risk factors).


CONCLUSIONS
It appears to be possible to predict to a certain degree whether a subject with subthreshold depression will develop a mood disorder during the following years.
Cuijpers
Pim
P
Department of Clinical Psychology, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, The Netherlands. P.Cuijpers@psy.vu.nl
Beekman
Aartjan
A
Smit
Filip
F
Deeg
Dorly
D
D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D003153:Community Health Services; D003863:Depression / Q000523:psychology*; D003865:Major Depressive Disorder / Q000209:etiology*; D019263:Dysthymic Disorder / Q000209:etiology*; D004812:Epidemiologic Methods; D001068:Feeding and Eating Disorders / Q000523:psychology; D015577:Geriatric Assessment / Q000379:methods; D006801:Humans; D008875:Middle Aged; D011379:Prognosis; D011569:Psychiatric Status Rating Scales; D012893:Sleep Wake Disorders / Q000523:psychology