Predicting post-traumatic stress disorder: validation of the Trauma Screening Questionnaire in victims of assault.
BACKGROUND
No accurate means of determining which individuals will develop post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) following a traumatic event has yet been identified. This study aimed to determine the validity of the Trauma Screening Questionnaire (TSQ) in predicting the development of PTSD following assault.


METHODS
Five hundred and sixty-two individuals who presented to an emergency unit following assault completed the TSQ between 1 and 3 weeks later. The Davidson Trauma Scale (DTS) was completed by the same individuals at 1 month and 6 months following assault to determine the presence of PTSD. The predictive power of the TSQ was determined by statistical tests.


RESULTS
The TSQ was an effective means of predicting future PTSD, with a sensitivity of 0.85, specificity 0.89, negative predictive value (NPV) 0.98 and efficiency 0.90. The positive predictive value (PPV) was lower (0.48), probably as a result of the relatively low prevalence of PTSD at 1 month (11%) and 6 months (8%) following the assault.


CONCLUSIONS
This study suggests that the TSQ can be used between 1 and 3 weeks after assault to help identify individuals who will develop PTSD.
Walters
James T R
JT
Department of Psychological Medicine, Cardiff University, Monmouth House, University Hospital of Wales, Cardiff, UK.
Bisson
Jonathan I
JI
Shepherd
Jonathan P
JP
D000328:Adult; D019548:Crime Victims; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008403:Mass Screening; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D013313:Stress Disorders, Post-Traumatic / Q000453:epidemiology*; D011795:Surveys and Questionnaires