title: Assessment of the potential effect of incremental increases in folic acid intake on neural tube defects in Australia and New Zealand.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To estimate the number of neural tube defects that could be prevented in Australia and New Zealand by increasing levels of folic acid intake.
  
  
  METHODS
  Available data on prevalence of neural tube defects in Australia and New Zealand, folic acid supplement use and serum folate were used in a published model to estimate the number of neural tube defects that could be prevented in Australia and New Zealand for increments of folic acid intake from 0.1 mg daily to 1 mg daily.
  
  
  RESULTS
  An increase of 0.2 mg folic acid per day was estimated to result in the prevention of 49 (95% CI 27-84) neural tube defects per year in Australia and 11 (95% CI 6-18) in New Zealand. A separate estimation for Indigenous Australians found that 0.2 mg of folic acid daily could prevent 7 (95% CI 4-11) neural tube defects in Indigenous infants per year.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  These data should be useful in considering primary preventive strategies for neural tube defects, including the possible introduction of mandatory fortification of food with folic acid. The estimates are imprecise because of limitations in the data used in the model.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  More representative and precise data on neural tube defects, serum folate levels and use of folic acid supplements from all Australian States and New Zealand are needed to refine the output from the model and to provide a baseline assessment of folate status against which to measure the effects of any future interventions to prevent neural tube defects.
authors.affiliation: Telethon Institute for Child Health Research, Centre for Child Health Research, University of Western Australia, West Perth. carolb@ichr.uwa.edu.au
authors.forename: Carol
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Bower
authors.forename: Nicholas
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: de Klerk
authors.forename: Siobhan
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Hickling
authors.forename: Gina
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Ambrosini
authors.forename: Leon
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Flicker
authors.forename: Elizabeth
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Geelhoed
authors.forename: Elizabeth
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Milne
mesh_terms: D001315:Australia / Q000453:epidemiology; D005492:Folic Acid / Q000008:administration & dosage* / Q000378:metabolism; D006801:Humans; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D009436:Neural Tube Defects / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control*; D009520:New Zealand / Q000453:epidemiology; D018570:Risk Assessment
chemical_list: D005492:Folic Acid