title: Modeling the impact of a partially effective HIV vaccine on HIV infection and death among women and infants in South Africa.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To assess the potential impact over 10 years of a partially effective HIV vaccine in a cohort of 15-year-old adolescent girls in South Africa in terms of HIV infections and deaths prevented in mothers and infants.
  
  
  METHODS
  A computer simulation was constructed using a population of all 15-year-old adolescent girls in South Africa followed for 10 years. A partially effective vaccine is introduced into this population with the ability to reduce the HIV incidence rates of the adolescents and vertical transmission to their infants through birth and breast-feeding. At the end of this 10 year period, the number of HIV infections and death prevented in adolescents and infants is analyzed.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Using a 5% HIV incidence rate, a 50% effective vaccine decreases the number of HIV cases among adolescents by 57,653 (28.7%) and the number of cases among infants by 13,765 (28.9%) over 10 years. In addition, assuming a vaccine cost of $20 per dose, the vaccination program can save approximately $120 million for the South African government over 10 years.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  A partially effective HIV vaccine has an important role in HIV prevention in adolescents and infants in South Africa irrespective of other public policy implementations.
authors.affiliation: Weill Medical College and Graduate School of Medical Sciences of Cornell University, New York, NY 10021, USA. samamirfar@yahoo.com
authors.forename: Sam
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Amirfar
authors.forename: James P
authors.initials: JP
authors.lastname: Hollenberg
authors.forename: Salim S
authors.initials: SS
authors.lastname: Abdool Karim
mesh_terms: D016915:AIDS Vaccines / Q000009:adverse effects / Q000191:economics / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D000293:Adolescent; D015331:Cohort Studies; D003198:Computer Simulation / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D003362:Cost-Benefit Analysis; D003661:Decision Support Techniques; D005260:Female; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000188:drug therapy* / Q000401:mortality / Q000517:prevention & control* / Q000635:transmission; D015497:HIV-1 / Q000276:immunology; D006801:Humans; D017589:Immunization Programs / Q000191:economics* / Q000458:organization & administration; D015994:Incidence; D007223:Infant; D018445:Infectious Disease Transmission, Vertical / Q000517:prevention & control*; D013019:South Africa / Q000453:epidemiology
chemical_list: D016915:AIDS Vaccines