title: Prognostic factors for early severity in a childhood multiple sclerosis cohort.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  The goal was to identify prognostic factors for an early severe course in a cohort of patients with childhood-onset multiple sclerosis, for the construction of a predictive tool.
  
  
  METHODS
  The cohort consisted of 197 children from the French Kid Sclérose en Plaques neuropediatric cohort with relapsing/remitting multiple sclerosis beginning before the age of 16 years. Patients were included from 1990 to 2003. We used multivariate survival analysis (Cox model) to evaluate the prognostic value of clinical, MRI, and biological covariates at onset for the occurrence of a third attack or severe disability ("severity" outcome).
  
  
  RESULTS
  The cohort was monitored for a mean of 5.5 +/- 3.6 years. The "severity" outcome was recorded for 144 patients (73%). The risk of severity was higher for girls, for a time between the first and second attacks of < 1 year, for childhood-onset multiple sclerosis MRI criteria at onset, for an absence of severe mental state changes at onset, and for a progressive course. A derived childhood-onset multiple sclerosis potential index for early severity was found to have a positive predictive value for severity of > 35% for the upper 2 quartiles.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The clinical and MRI prognostic factors for early severity that were identified were used as the basis of a predictive tool, which will be validated in another cohort. This tool should make it possible to identify subgroups at risk of early severe disease and should facilitate therapeutic studies.
authors.affiliation: Service de Neurologie Pédiatrique, Hôpital Bicêtre, Assistance Publique-Hôpitaux de Paris, INSERM U802, Paris, France. yann.mikaeloff@bct.aphp.fr
authors.forename: Yann
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Mikaeloff
authors.forename: Guillaume
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Caridade
authors.forename: Saada
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Assi
authors.forename: Samy
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Suissa
authors.forename: Marc
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Tardieu
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D015331:Cohort Studies; D004185:Disability Evaluation; D019988:Children with Disabilities / Q000145:classification; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008279:Magnetic Resonance Imaging; D008297:Male; D009103:Multiple Sclerosis / Q000145:classification* / Q000473:pathology*; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011379:Prognosis; D012008:Recurrence; D012307:Risk Factors; D012720:Severity of Illness Index; D012737:Sex Factors; D016019:Survival Analysis