title: Prisoners' positive illusions of their post-release success.
abstract: Prisoners' forecasts of post-release success may have implications for how they respond to imprisonment, release, and parole decisions. We examined sentenced US and UK prisoners' forecasts of recidivism, and how well UK prisoners believed they would fare compared to the average other prisoner. In both samples, forecasts of recidivism were unrealistically optimistic when compared to official statistics on recidivism. UK prisoners also demonstrated a self-enhancement bias by forecasting that they were less likely to re-offend than other prisoners. Prisoners' forecasts of recidivism were predicted by only a few of the pre-prison, in-prison, and post-prison factors that have been shown to be associated with actual recidivism. We discuss the implications of these findings and propose avenues for future research.
authors.affiliation: Institute of Criminology, Faculty of Law, University of Cambridge, Sidgwick Avenue, Cambridge, CB3 9DT, England, UK. mkd25@cam.ac.uk
authors.forename: Mandeep K
authors.initials: MK
authors.lastname: Dhami
authors.forename: David R
authors.initials: DR
authors.lastname: Mandel
authors.forename: George
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Loewenstein
authors.forename: Peter
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Ayton
mesh_terms: D000223:Adaptation, Psychological; D000328:Adult; D000704:Analysis of Variance; D001290:Attitude; D015982:Bias; D003415:Crime / Q000523:psychology*; D003417:Criminal Psychology; D003418:Criminology; D003431:Cross-Cultural Comparison; D004651:Employment / Q000523:psychology; D005544:Forecasting; D006798:Housing; D006801:Humans; D007088:Illusions; D016014:Linear Models; D008297:Male; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011329:Prisoners / Q000193:education / Q000523:psychology* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D012307:Risk Factors; D020377:Self Efficacy; D012647:Self-Assessment; D011795:Surveys and Questionnaires; D006113:United Kingdom; D014481:United States