Quantification of the contact structure in a feral cattle population and its hypothetical effect on the transmission of bovine herpesvirus 1.
The organisation of animal populations in social groupings may play a crucial role in the transmission of any infectious disease that requires close contact. The objective of this study was to quantify the contact structure of part of the Heck cattle population in a Dutch nature reserve and its hypothetical effect on the transmission of bovine herpesvirus 1 (BHV1). The contact structure was quantified by observing the number of different animals with whom contact was made (i.e. the number of contactees) within a fixed time period. Two types of behaviour sampling methods, namely focal sampling and scan sampling were used to observe the contact structure. In this study only those contacts between individuals were observed that were assumed to be a proxy measure of an at-risk event for BHV1-infection. Two reproduction ratios (R), i.e. the average number of new cases caused by a typical infected individual, were estimated, one for the observed contact structure and another for a random mixing contact structure. The two reproduction ratios were then compared to study the hypothetical effect on BHV1 transmission. The overall number of contactees was highest during summer and lowest during winter-spring. The contact structure of the homogeneous population did differ significantly from a random mixing contact structure, resulting in that the variation in the number of contactees was higher than under random mixing. Bulls, young bulls and cows had the highest number of contactees during, respectively, summer, autumn and winter-spring. From the analysis of the contingency tables it was clear that contacts between animal types did not occur at random during summer and autumn. For example, during summer more contacts than expected occurred between bulls and cows. This heterogeneity at animal type level was taken into account in the calculation for R, which resulted for the observed contact structure in higher estimates for R than for the homogeneous population. When looking at heterogeneity at individual level it was found that during summer almost all individuals were observed together direct or indirect in the same group except for certain bull groups. During autumn and winter-spring almost all individuals were seen together in the same group when considering a long contact period of 14 days but the groups were fallen apart in smaller groups and solitary individuals for a short contact period of 5 days. It could be concluded that based on the observed contact structure transmission would be favoured most during summer.
Mollema
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Animal Sciences Group, Quantitative Veterinary Epidemiology, P.O. Box 65, 8200 AB Lelystad, The Netherlands. Liesbeth.Mollema@rivm.nl
Koene
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de Jong
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D000822:Animal Husbandry / Q000379:methods*; D000818:Animals; D000835:Animals, Wild / Q000821:virology; D002417:Cattle; D002418:Cattle Diseases / Q000635:transmission*; D004197:Disease Reservoirs / Q000662:veterinary; D005260:Female; D006566:Herpesviridae Infections / Q000635:transmission / Q000662:veterinary*; D007242:Herpesvirus 1, Bovine / Q000472:pathogenicity; D008297:Male; D008954:Models, Biological; D012621:Seasons; D013997:Time Factors