title: Predicting functional capacity outcome 12 months after hospitalized injury.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  There is a recognized need to move from mortality to morbidity outcome predictions following traumatic injury. However, there are few morbidity outcome prediction scoring methods and these fail to incorporate important comorbidities or cofactors. This study aims to develop and evaluate a method that includes such variables.
  
  
  METHODS
  This was a consecutive case series registered in the Queensland Trauma Registry that consented to a prospective 12-month telephone conducted follow-up study. A multivariable statistical model was developed relating Trauma Registry data to trichotomized 12-month post-injury outcome (categories: no limitations, minor limitations and major limitations). Cross-validation techniques using successive single hold-out samples were then conducted to evaluate the model's predictive capabilities.
  
  
  RESULTS
  In total, 619 participated, with 337 (54%) experiencing no limitations, 101 (16%) experiencing minor limitations and 181 (29%) experiencing major limitations 12 months after injury. The final parsimonious multivariable statistical model included whether the injury was in the lower extremity body region, injury severity, age, length of hospital stay, pulse at admission and whether the participant was admitted to an intensive care unit. This model explained 21% of the variability in post-injury outcome. Predictively, 64% of those with no limitations, 18% of those with minor limitations and 37% of those with major limitations were correctly identified.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Although carefully developed, this statistical model lacks the predictive power necessary for its use as a basis of a useful prognostic tool. Further research is required to identify variables other than those routinely used in the Trauma Registry to develop a model with the necessary predictive utility.
authors.affiliation: Faculty of Health and Environmental Sciences, Auckland University of Technology, Auckland, New Zealand. philip.schluter@aut.ac.nz
authors.forename: Philip J
authors.initials: PJ
authors.lastname: Schluter
authors.forename: Roderick J
authors.initials: RJ
authors.lastname: McClure
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D015331:Cohort Studies; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006760:Hospitalization; D006801:Humans; D007902:Length of Stay; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D009017:Morbidity; D011446:Prospective Studies; D016896:Treatment Outcome; D014947:Wounds and Injuries / Q000534:rehabilitation*