title: Bicyclist injury severities in bicycle-motor vehicle accidents.
abstract: This research explores the factors contributing to the injury severity of bicyclists in bicycle-motor vehicle accidents using a multinomial logit model. The model predicts the probability of four injury severity outcomes: fatal, incapacitating, non-incapacitating, and possible or no injury. The analysis is based on police-reported accident data between 1997 and 2002 from North Carolina, USA. The results show several factors which more than double the probability of a bicyclist suffering a fatal injury in an accident, all other things being kept constant. Notably, inclement weather, darkness with no streetlights, a.m. peak (06:00 a.m. to 09:59 a.m.), head-on collision, speeding-involved, vehicle speeds above 48.3 km/h (30 mph), truck involved, intoxicated driver, bicyclist age 55 or over, and intoxicated bicyclist. The largest effect is caused when estimated vehicle speed prior to impact is greater than 80.5 km/h (50 mph), where the probability of fatal injury increases more than 16-fold. Speed also shows a threshold effect at 32.2 km/h (20 mph), which supports the commonly used 30km/h speed limit in residential neighborhoods. The results also imply that bicyclist fault is more closely correlated with greater bicyclist injury severity than driver fault.
authors.affiliation: Washington University in St. Louis, Department of Civil Engineering, Campus Box 1130, One Brookings Drive, St. Louis, MO 63130-4899, USA. jk9@cec.wustl.edu
authors.forename: Joon-Ki
authors.initials: JK
authors.lastname: Kim
authors.forename: Sungyop
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Kim
authors.forename: Gudmundur F
authors.initials: GF
authors.lastname: Ulfarsson
authors.forename: Luis A
authors.initials: LA
authors.lastname: Porrello
mesh_terms: D000063:Accidents, Traffic; D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D001642:Bicycling / Q000293:injuries*; D005260:Female; D006260:Head Protective Devices; D006801:Humans; D015601:Injury Severity Score; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009657:North Carolina; D014887:Weather