title: Normal obstetric ultrasound reduces the risk of Down syndrome in fetuses of older mothers.
abstract: The objective of this study is to determine whether a normal fetal morphology ultrasound scan in women older than 35 years reduces the risk of aneuploidy. We reviewed the results of amniocentesis and second trimester sonogram in all women older than 35 years from 1991 to 1995. None had prior screening. We excluded fetuses with structural anomalies. We determined the sensitivity and specificity of minor markers in detecting Down syndrome and also determined the reduction in risk of a normal sonogram. Among the 2060 women older than 35 years giving birth during the study period, 16 (0.78%) delivered an infant with Down syndrome. Of the 16 fetuses, two had no prenatal testing or ultrasound, two had invasive testing but no second trimester sonogram, five had a normal sonogram and seven had one or more sonographic markers of Down syndrome. At least 17% of women older than 35 years did not participate in prenatal testing or ultrasound. Ultrasound detected Down syndrome with a sensitivity of 59% (95% confidence interval: 45-72%), a false-positive rate of 10.6% (9.4-11.8%) and a positive predictor value of 1 in 9. The likelihood of having normal karyotype if the sonogram was normal was 0.46 (0.31-0.61). In women older than 35 years, a normal second trimester sonogram reduces the risk of Down syndrome by more than 50%. At least 17% of women older than 35 years do not participate in prenatal testing or ultrasound.
authors.affiliation: Department of Radiology, Christchurch Hospital, Christchurch, New Zealand. nigel.anderson@cdhb.govt.nz
authors.forename: N G
authors.initials: NG
authors.lastname: Anderson
authors.forename: B
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Luehr
authors.forename: R
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Ng
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D004314:Down Syndrome / Q000175:diagnosis*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008423:Maternal Age; D011247:Pregnancy; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012306:Risk; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D016216:Ultrasonography, Prenatal / Q000379:methods*