title: Neonatal mortality and morbidity after elective cesarean delivery versus routine expectant management: a decision analysis.
abstract: A number of competing risks and benefits influence the rates of neonatal morbidity and mortality in elective cesarean delivery versus expectant management. To compare these rates, we developed complex decision trees to model the expected outcomes among hypothetical cohorts of 1,000,000 uncomplicated pregnancies undergoing elective cesarean delivery versus 1,000,000 comparable pregnancies undergoing routine pregnancy management. A separate tree was created for each complication, including neonatal death, respiratory morbidity, intracranial hemorrhage, and brachial plexus injury. We found that neonatal mortality was increased among elective cesarean deliveries, but perinatal mortality was higher with routine expectant management due to fetal deaths. Respiratory morbidity was substantially more common among infants delivered by elective cesarean delivery, whereas intracranial hemorrhage and brachial plexus injury were less common. We conclude that the fetal/neonatal impact of elective cesarean is mixed, but any improvement in perinatal health is likely to be small.
authors.affiliation: Division of Epidemiology, Statistics, and Prevention Research, National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, National Institutes of Health, Department of Health and Human Services, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA.
authors.forename: Caroline
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Signore
authors.forename: Anusha
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Hemachandra
authors.forename: Mark
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Klebanoff
mesh_terms: D000465:Algorithms; D002585:Cesarean Section / Q000009:adverse effects*; D003663:Decision Trees; D017558:Elective Surgical Procedures / Q000009:adverse effects; D005260:Female; D005313:Fetal Death; D006801:Humans; D007226:Infant Mortality; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D007232:Infant, Newborn, Diseases / Q000401:mortality / Q000517:prevention & control*; D010358:Patient Participation; D017410:Practice Guidelines as Topic; D011247:Pregnancy; D011248:Pregnancy Complications / Q000517:prevention & control* / Q000628:therapy; D011256:Pregnancy Outcome; D014219:Trial of Labor