title: Baseline MRI predicts future attacks and disability in clinically isolated syndromes.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To determine the relation between baseline MRI and both conversion to multiple sclerosis (MS) and development of disability in a cohort of patients with clinically isolated syndromes (CIS).
  
  
  METHODS
  From 1995 to 1998, 175 consecutive patients with CIS underwent brain MRI within 3 months of their first attack and again 12 months and 5 years later. We studied the number and location of lesions at baseline and development of new T2 lesions. We also analyzed conversion to MS and development of disability (Expanded Disability Status Scale [EDSS] > or = 3.0).
  
  
  RESULTS
  We included 156 patients with CIS followed for a median of 7 years. Compared to the reference group with 0 Barkhof criteria at baseline MRI, patients with one or two Barkhof criteria showed an adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of 6.1 (2.2 to 16.6) and patients with three to four Barkhof criteria of 17.0 (6.7 to 43) for conversion to MS and differentiated patients with low, medium, and high conversion risk. EDSS at year 5 correlated with baseline number of Barkhof criteria (r = 0.46, p < 0.0001). When categorizing by number of baseline lesions, similar results were seen. Patients with a baseline MRI with three to four Barkhof criteria had an adjusted HR of 3.9 (1.1 to 13.6) for reaching EDSS > or = 3.0. Only 10% of the latter had disability at year 5, but 40% reached this at 8 years.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Baseline MRI determines the risk for converting to clinically definite multiple sclerosis and correlates with disability at 5 years. The proportion of patients developing disability is low during the first 5 years but rapidly increases shortly after.
authors.affiliation: Unit of Clinical Neuroimmunology (Department of Neurology), Hospital Universitari Vall d'Hebron, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Spain. mtintore@vhebron.net
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Tintoré
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Rovira
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Río
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Nos
authors.forename: E
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Grivé
authors.forename: N
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Téllez
authors.forename: R
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Pelayo
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Comabella
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Sastre-Garriga
authors.forename: X
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Montalban
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D001921:Brain / Q000473:pathology*; D004185:Disability Evaluation; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008279:Magnetic Resonance Imaging; D008297:Male; D009103:Multiple Sclerosis / Q000134:cerebrospinal fluid / Q000473:pathology* / Q000503:physiopathology*; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D012008:Recurrence; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012306:Risk; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D012720:Severity of Illness Index; D013577:Syndrome; D013997:Time Factors