[The future economic burden of dementia on health and social services].
BACKGROUND
Demographic changes in Denmark over the next 15 years will result in an increased number of elderly people and of individuals with dementia. As a result this will increase the demand for health care and social services. The aim of this study was to shed light on the likely economic consequences of this development.


METHODS
A simple static, comparative model based on Danish incidence and cost data for different age groups and different levels of dementia severity was developed. The model projected the costs of the health and social services for treatment and care of people with dementia up to the year 2020.


RESULTS
The future demographic changes and an increasing number of people with dementia will result in a 30% increase in health and social service costs due to dementia. This increase will be lower if individuals with dementia have a higher mortality rate than other individuals. If annual productivity gains of 1-3% can be achieved, the future cost (in real prices) could be reduced.


CONCLUSIONS
The Danish health and social services will in the future be faced with increased costs for the treatment and care of people with dementia. This could be achieved through productivity gains, an increased level of financing or prioritisation of services that provide good value for money.
Sørensen
Jan
J
Syddansk Universitet, Center for Anvendt Sundhedstjenesteforskning, Odense C. jas@cast.sdu.dk
Gudex
Claire M
CM
Andersen
Christian Kronborg
CK
D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D003153:Community Health Services / Q000191:economics; D017281:Cost of Illness; D003704:Dementia / Q000191:economics* / Q000453:epidemiology; D003718:Denmark / Q000453:epidemiology; D017598:Efficiency, Organizational / Q000191:economics; D017048:Health Care Costs / Q000639:trends; D006296:Health Services / Q000191:economics; D006301:Health Services Needs and Demand / Q000191:economics / Q000639:trends; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D018803:Models, Economic