title: Modeling future changes to the meningococcal serogroup C conjugate (MCC) vaccine program in England and Wales.
abstract: The UK meningococcal serogroup C conjugate (MCC) vaccine program has successfully controlled serogroup C disease, due to high vaccine effectiveness and substantial herd immunity. However, children immunised at 2, 3 and 4 months of age receive only short-term direct protection and may be at risk of disease 15 months after vaccination. To investigate this we applied a mathematical model to predict the future epidemiology of serogroup C disease, with and without changes to the immunization schedule. Only a few cases of serogroup C disease were predicted to occur over the next few years because of persisting herd immunity, even without a change to the vaccine schedule. The inclusion of a booster dose is likely to improve the impact of the MCC program and reducing the number of doses in infancy will improve cost-effectiveness and create space in the schedule for the addition of other vaccines.
authors.affiliation: Immunisation Department, Health Protection Agency Centre for Infections, London, UK. caroline_trotter@yahoo.co.uk
authors.forename: Caroline L
authors.initials: CL
authors.lastname: Trotter
authors.forename: W John
authors.initials: WJ
authors.lastname: Edmunds
authors.forename: Mary E
authors.initials: ME
authors.lastname: Ramsay
authors.forename: Elizabeth
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Miller
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000465:Algorithms; D002353:Carrier State / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000276:immunology; D003362:Cost-Benefit Analysis; D004739:England / Q000453:epidemiology; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D032521:Immunity, Herd; D007115:Immunization Schedule; D008297:Male; D008589:Meningococcal Infections / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000276:immunology* / Q000517:prevention & control*; D022401:Meningococcal Vaccines / Q000191:economics / Q000276:immunology*; D015233:Models, Statistical; D042806:Neisseria lactamica / Q000276:immunology; D018074:Vaccines, Conjugate / Q000191:economics / Q000276:immunology; D014852:Wales / Q000453:epidemiology
chemical_list: D022401:Meningococcal Vaccines; D018074:Vaccines, Conjugate