title: Is surgery always mandatory for type A aortic dissection?
abstract: BACKGROUND
  The International Registry of Aortic Dissections showed that 42% of the unoperated patients with type A acute aortic dissection were discharged from the hospital after intensive medical treatment. We analyzed our experience to identify a preoperative score for in-hospital mortality to propose an alternative strategy for type A acute aortic dissection.
  
  
  METHODS
  From 1980 to 2004, 616 consecutive patients with type A acute aortic dissection underwent surgery in our center. The preoperative univariate risk factors with a probability value less than 0.05 were entered into multivariate analysis. A risk equation was developed: predicted mortality = exp(beta 0 + sigma beta i X i)/[1 + exp(beta 0 + sigma beta i X i)].
  
  
  RESULTS
  Early mortality was 25.1% (154 of 616 patients). Five risk factors were identified: age, coma, acute renal failure, shock, and redo operation. The beta i values are age 0.023, shock 0.771, reoperation 0.595, coma 1.162, acute renal failure 0.778; the constant (beta 0) is -2.986.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Our large, single-center experience allowed us to develop a mathematical model to predict 30-day mortality for type A acute aortic dissection. When the expected mortality is 58% or less, surgery is always indicated. When the predicted mortality is greater than 58%, the possibility of survival is similar, according to International Registry of Aortic Dissections data, for surgery and medical treatment. In such cases surgery can no longer be considered mandatory, and a careful evaluation of the individual patient is recommended to choose the more suitable strategy.
authors.affiliation: Cardiac Surgery Division, University of Turin, Turin, Italy. paolocentofanti@tiscali.it
authors.forename: Paolo
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Centofanti
authors.forename: Roberto
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Flocco
authors.forename: Fabrizio
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Ceresa
authors.forename: Matteo
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Attisani
authors.forename: Michele
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: La Torre
authors.forename: Luca
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Weltert
authors.forename: Antonio Maria
authors.initials: AM
authors.lastname: Calafiore
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D000784:Aortic Dissection / Q000401:mortality* / Q000601:surgery*; D001014:Aortic Aneurysm / Q000401:mortality* / Q000601:surgery*; D013504:Cardiovascular Surgical Procedures / Q000401:mortality*; D005260:Female; D017052:Hospital Mortality; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D012307:Risk Factors