title: Teaching Bayesian analysis to Emergency Medicine residents.
abstract: Our objective was to determine if a brief didactic would improve Emergency Medicine (EM) resident performance at using a key evidence-based medicine (EBM) concept. We used a prospective, before and after, assessment of EM resident estimates of post-test pulmonary embolism (PE) probability for a defined pre-test probability, computed tomography (CT) and D-dimer results. The survey provided test sensitivity, and specificity for D-dimer and CT. Three months later, residents attended a brief didactic conference on how to use Fagan's Nomogram and likelihood ratios (LRs) to calculate post-test probability of disease. The accuracy of estimates of post-test PE probability was reassessed. The absolute percentage difference in resident estimates from the true post-test PE probabilities decreased from 14.5% (95% confidence interval [CI] 9.7%-19.9%) to 4.5% (95% CI 2.0-6.8%) after the educational intervention. This 10% effect size was statistically significant, p = 0.002. The study demonstrates the efficacy of the lecture method in teaching an EBM concept to EM residents.
authors.affiliation: Department of Emergency Medicine, University of Arizona College of Medicine, Tucson, AZ 85724, USA.
authors.forename: David C
authors.initials: DC
authors.lastname: Grant
authors.forename: Samuel M
authors.initials: SM
authors.lastname: Keim
authors.forename: Janet
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Telfer
mesh_terms: D001499:Bayes Theorem; D004635:Emergency Medicine / Q000193:education*; D019317:Evidence-Based Medicine / Q000193:education*; D005338:Fibrin Fibrinogen Degradation Products / Q000378:metabolism; D006801:Humans; D007396:Internship and Residency; D011446:Prospective Studies; D011655:Pulmonary Embolism / Q000175:diagnosis; D014057:Tomography, X-Ray Computed
chemical_list: D005338:Fibrin Fibrinogen Degradation Products; C036309:fibrin fragment D