Modelling vaccination programmes against measles in Taiwan.
Vaccination has proved a powerful defence against measles. We reappraise measles seroepidemiological data in Taiwan from 1974 to 2004 having robust age-stratified serological information on exposure and immunity to quantitatively characterize measles vaccination programmes. We dynamically model measles seroepidemiology to estimate age-dependent intensity of infection associated with the effects of different contact patterns on pre- and post-vaccination. The WAIFM (who acquires infection from whom) contact matrix is employed to describe the transmission between and within each age group. A deterministic SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infected-recovery) model is used to capture subpopulation dynamics. Our study shows that mass regional or nationwide vaccination programmes could greatly reduce the potential for a major measles epidemic and have strong direct effects on the potential impact of childhood vaccination. We parameterize a predictive model that should reduce the socio-economic costs of measles surveillance in Taiwan and thereby encourage its continuance, especially for preschool children.
Chen
S C
SC
Ecotoxicological Modelling Centre, Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan, ROC.
Chang
C F
CF
Jou
L J
LJ
Liao
C M
CM
D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D008457:Measles / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control*; D008458:Measles Vaccine / Q000276:immunology*; D008954:Models, Biological; D013624:Taiwan / Q000453:epidemiology; D014611:Vaccination
D008458:Measles Vaccine