Scientific lessons from the first influenza pandemic of the 20th century.
Re-analysis of the influenza pandemic of 1918 has given reassurance about a rather low reproductive number (R(o)), a prolonged herald wave of virus and that the skewed mortality towards the young adult could be a singularly unique event dependent upon previous infection history, perhaps not to be repeated in a future pandemic. Over 99% of those who contracted the virus survived, in spite of the absence of antivirals, vaccine and antibiotics for the secondary bacteria infections which probably accounted for one-third of the 50 million deaths. Therefore, in spite of a three-fold population increase since 1918 and 100 thousand plane journeys daily, judicious and careful planning together with a stockpile of antiviral drugs, oseltamivir, zanamivir and M2 blockers and a generic H5N1 vaccine, and application of hygiene would be expected to reduce mortality in a new pandemic, to figures significantly less than 1918.
Oxford
J S
JS
Retroscreen Virology Ltd., Centre for Infectious Diseases, Bart's and the London, Queen Mary's School of Medicine and Dentistry, 327 Mile End Road, London E1 4NS, United Kingdom. j.s.oxford@retroscreen.com
Lambkin
R
R
Elliot
A
A
Daniels
R
R
Sefton
A
A
Gill
D
D
D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000266:history / Q000517:prevention & control; D049673:History, 20th Century; D006801:Humans; D007251:Influenza, Human / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000266:history / Q000401:mortality* / Q000517:prevention & control