Design and validation of a population-based definition of the metabolic syndrome.
OBJECTIVE
The National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) definition of the metabolic syndrome was modified to be described as a continuous variable and adapted to the characteristics of a Hispanic population.


METHODS
Age/sex population percentiles for every component of the NCEP criteria were included in this approach using population-based data from a Mexican nationwide survey (2,158 subjects). One point was given per decile for every component. The total number of points accumulated was used to classify subjects. The predictive power for incident diabetes was evaluated using the 7-year follow-up results of the Mexico City Diabetes Study.


RESULTS
Our population-based method had a significantly better prognostic power compared with the original and the updated NCEP definitions (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.746 vs. 0.697 and 0.723, respectively, P < 0.05). Using individuals with </=1 component of the NCEP definition as reference, the odds ratio was greater in the upper quartile of the points scale (>/=39 points) (12.71 [95% CI 5.67-28.49]) compared with that calculated for the original (9.52 [4.69-19.31]) and the updated (11.14 [5.33-23.30]) NCEP criteria. The major advantage of our approach is the detection of subjects at the extremes of the range of diabetes risk and the ability to estimate this risk as a continuum.


CONCLUSIONS
Our method adapts the NCEP criteria to the characteristics of a Hispanic population. It improves the predictive power of the NCEP criteria for future diabetes.
Aguilar-Salinas
Carlos A
CA
National Institute of Public Health, Av. Universidad 655, Col Sta Maria Ahuacatitlan, Cuernavaca, Morelos, C.P. 62508, Mexico.
Rojas
Rosalba
R
Gonzalez-Villalpando
Clicerio
C
Gómez-Pérez
Francisco J
FJ
Mehta
Roopa
R
Olaiz
Gustavo
G
Rull
Juan A
JA
Cox
David R
DR
D000328:Adult; D017677:Age Distribution; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D002908:Chronic Disease; D003924:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / Q000208:ethnology; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006306:Health Surveys; D006801:Humans; D006946:Hyperinsulinism / Q000208:ethnology; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D024821:Metabolic Syndrome / Q000208:ethnology*; D008800:Mexico / Q000453:epidemiology; D008875:Middle Aged; D016017:Odds Ratio; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011379:Prognosis; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D017678:Sex Distribution; D014505:Urban Population / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*